what is the hypothesis and conclusion of each statement

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1.1: Statements and Conditional Statements

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Ted Sundstrom
Grand Valley State University via ScholarWorks @Grand Valley State University

Much of our work in mathematics deals with statements. In mathematics, a statement is a declarative sentence that is either true or false but not both. A statement is sometimes called a proposition . The key is that there must be no ambiguity. To be a statement, a sentence must be true or false, and it cannot be both. So a sentence such as "The sky is beautiful" is not a statement since whether the sentence is true or not is a matter of opinion. A question such as "Is it raining?" is not a statement because it is a question and is not declaring or asserting that something is true.

Some sentences that are mathematical in nature often are not statements because we may not know precisely what a variable represents. For example, the equation 2$x$+5 = 10 is not a statement since we do not know what $x$ represents. If we substitute a specific value for $x$ (such as $x$ = 3), then the resulting equation, 2$\cdot$3 +5 = 10 is a statement (which is a false statement). Following are some more examples:

There exists a real number $x$ such that 2$x$+5 = 10. This is a statement because either such a real number exists or such a real number does not exist. In this case, this is a true statement since such a real number does exist, namely $x$ = 2.5.
For each real number $x$, $2x +5 = 2 \left( x + \dfrac{5}{2}\right)$. This is a statement since either the sentence $2x +5 = 2 \left( x + \dfrac{5}{2}\right)$ is true when any real number is substituted for $x$ (in which case, the statement is true) or there is at least one real number that can be substituted for $x$ and produce a false statement (in which case, the statement is false). In this case, the given statement is true.
Solve the equation $x^2 - 7x +10 =0$. This is not a statement since it is a directive. It does not assert that something is true.
$(a+b)^2 = a^2+b^2$ is not a statement since it is not known what $a$ and $b$ represent. However, the sentence, “There exist real numbers $a$ and $b$ such that $(a+b)^2 = a^2+b^2$" is a statement. In fact, this is a true statement since there are such integers. For example, if $a=1$ and $b=0$, then $(a+b)^2 = a^2+b^2$.
Compare the statement in the previous item to the statement, “For all real numbers $a$ and $b$, $(a+b)^2 = a^2+b^2$." This is a false statement since there are values for $a$ and $b$ for which $(a+b)^2 \ne a^2+b^2$. For example, if $a=2$ and $b=3$, then $(a+b)^2 = 5^2 = 25$ and $a^2 + b^2 = 2^2 +3^2 = 13$.

Progress Check 1.1: Statements

Which of the following sentences are statements? Do not worry about determining whether a statement is true or false; just determine whether each sentence is a statement or not.

2$\cdot$7 + 8 = 22.
$(x-1) = \sqrt(x + 11)$.
$2x + 5y = 7$.
There are integers $x$ and $y$ such that $2x + 5y = 7$.
There are integers $x$ and $y$ such that $23x + 27y = 52$.
Given a line $L$ and a point $P$ not on that line, there is a unique line through $P$ that does not intersect $L$.
$(a + b)^3 = a^3 + 3a^2b + 3ab^2 + b^3$.
$(a + b)^3 = a^3 + 3a^2b + 3ab^2 + b^3$ for all real numbers $a$ and $b$.
The derivative of $f(x) = \sin x$ is $f' (x) = \cos x$.
Does the equation $3x^2 - 5x - 7 = 0$ have two real number solutions?
If $ABC$ is a right triangle with right angle at vertex $B$, and if $D$ is the midpoint of the hypotenuse, then the line segment connecting vertex $B$ to $D$ is half the length of the hypotenuse.
There do not exist three integers $x$, $y$, and $z$ such that $x^3 + y^2 = z^3$.

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How Do We Decide If a Statement Is True or False?

In mathematics, we often establish that a statement is true by writing a mathematical proof. To establish that a statement is false, we often find a so-called counterexample. (These ideas will be explored later in this chapter.) So mathematicians must be able to discover and construct proofs. In addition, once the discovery has been made, the mathematician must be able to communicate this discovery to others who speak the language of mathematics. We will be dealing with these ideas throughout the text.

For now, we want to focus on what happens before we start a proof. One thing that mathematicians often do is to make a conjecture beforehand as to whether the statement is true or false. This is often done through exploration. The role of exploration in mathematics is often difficult because the goal is not to find a specific answer but simply to investigate. Following are some techniques of exploration that might be helpful.

Techniques of Exploration

Guesswork and conjectures . Formulate and write down questions and conjectures. When we make a guess in mathematics, we usually call it a conjecture.

For example, if someone makes the conjecture that $\sin(2x) = 2 \sin(x)$, for all real numbers $x$, we can test this conjecture by substituting specific values for $x$. One way to do this is to choose values of $x$ for which $\sin(x)$is known. Using $x = \frac{\pi}{4}$, we see that

$\sin(2(\frac{\pi}{4})) = \sin(\frac{\pi}{2}) = 1,$ and

$2\sin(\frac{\pi}{4}) = 2(\frac{\sqrt2}{2}) = \sqrt2$.

Since $1 \ne \sqrt2$, these calculations show that this conjecture is false. However, if we do not find a counterexample for a conjecture, we usually cannot claim the conjecture is true. The best we can say is that our examples indicate the conjecture is true. As an example, consider the conjecture that

If $x$ and $y$ are odd integers, then $x + y$ is an even integer.

We can do lots of calculation, such as $3 + 7 = 10$ and $5 + 11 = 16$, and find that every time we add two odd integers, the sum is an even integer. However, it is not possible to test every pair of odd integers, and so we can only say that the conjecture appears to be true. (We will prove that this statement is true in the next section.)

Use of prior knowledge. This also is very important. We cannot start from square one every time we explore a statement. We must make use of our acquired mathematical knowledge. For the conjecture that $\sin (2x) = 2 \sin(x)$, for all real numbers $x$, we might recall that there are trigonometric identities called “double angle identities.” We may even remember the correct identity for $\sin (2x)$, but if we do not, we can always look it up. We should recall (or find) that for all real numbers $x$, \[\sin(2x) = 2 \sin(x)\cos(x).\]
We could use this identity to argue that the conjecture “for all real numbers $x$, $\sin (2x) = 2 \sin(x)$” is false, but if we do, it is still a good idea to give a specific counterexample as we did before.
Cooperation and brainstorming . Working together is often more fruitful than working alone. When we work with someone else, we can compare notes and articulate our ideas. Thinking out loud is often a useful brainstorming method that helps generate new ideas.

Progress Check 1.2: Explorations

Use the techniques of exploration to investigate each of the following statements. Can you make a conjecture as to whether the statement is true or false? Can you determine whether it is true or false?

$(a + b)^2 = a^2 + b^2$, for all real numbers a and b.
There are integers $x$ and $y$ such that $2x + 5y = 41$.
If $x$ is an even integer, then $x^2$ is an even integer.
If $x$ and $y$ are odd integers, then $x \cdot y$ is an odd integer.

Conditional Statements

One of the most frequently used types of statements in mathematics is the so-called conditional statement. Given statements $P$ and $Q$, a statement of the form “If $P$ then $Q$” is called a conditional statement . It seems reasonable that the truth value (true or false) of the conditional statement “If $P$ then $Q$” depends on the truth values of $P$ and $Q$. The statement “If $P$ then $Q$” means that $Q$ must be true whenever $P$ is true. The statement $P$ is called the hypothesis of the conditional statement, and the statement $Q$ is called the conclusion of the conditional statement. Since conditional statements are probably the most important type of statement in mathematics, we give a more formal definition.

A conditional statement is a statement that can be written in the form “If $P$ then $Q$,” where $P$ and $Q$ are sentences. For this conditional statement, $P$ is called the hypothesis and $Q$ is called the conclusion .

Intuitively, “If $P$ then $Q$” means that $Q$ must be true whenever $P$ is true. Because conditional statements are used so often, a symbolic shorthand notation is used to represent the conditional statement “If $P$ then $Q$.” We will use the notation $P \to Q$ to represent “If $P$ then $Q$.” When $P$ and $Q$ are statements, it seems reasonable that the truth value (true or false) of the conditional statement $P \to Q$ depends on the truth values of $P$ and $Q$. There are four cases to consider:

$P$ is true and $Q$ is true.
$P$ is false and $Q$ is true.
$P$ is true and $Q$ is false.
$P$ is false and $Q$ is false.

The conditional statement $P \to Q$ means that $Q$ is true whenever $P$ is true. It says nothing about the truth value of $Q$ when $P$ is false. Using this as a guide, we define the conditional statement $P \to Q$ to be false only when $P$ is true and $Q$ is false, that is, only when the hypothesis is true and the conclusion is false. In all other cases, $P \to Q$ is true. This is summarized in Table 1.1 , which is called a truth table for the conditional statement $P \to Q$. (In Table 1.1 , T stands for “true” and F stands for “false.”)

Table 1.1: Truth Table for $P \to Q$

The important thing to remember is that the conditional statement $P \to Q$ has its own truth value. It is either true or false (and not both). Its truth value depends on the truth values for $P$ and $Q$, but some find it a bit puzzling that the conditional statement is considered to be true when the hypothesis P is false. We will provide a justification for this through the use of an example.

Example 1.3:

Suppose that I say

“If it is not raining, then Daisy is riding her bike.”

We can represent this conditional statement as $P \to Q$ where $P$ is the statement, “It is not raining” and $Q$ is the statement, “Daisy is riding her bike.”

Although it is not a perfect analogy, think of the statement $P \to Q$ as being false to mean that I lied and think of the statement $P \to Q$ as being true to mean that I did not lie. We will now check the truth value of $P \to Q$ based on the truth values of $P$ and $Q$.

Suppose that both $P$ and $Q$ are true. That is, it is not raining and Daisy is riding her bike. In this case, it seems reasonable to say that I told the truth and that$P \to Q$ is true.
Suppose that $P$ is true and $Q$ is false or that it is not raining and Daisy is not riding her bike. It would appear that by making the statement, “If it is not raining, then Daisy is riding her bike,” that I have not told the truth. So in this case, the statement $P \to Q$ is false.
Now suppose that $P$ is false and $Q$ is true or that it is raining and Daisy is riding her bike. Did I make a false statement by stating that if it is not raining, then Daisy is riding her bike? The key is that I did not make any statement about what would happen if it was raining, and so I did not tell a lie. So we consider the conditional statement, “If it is not raining, then Daisy is riding her bike,” to be true in the case where it is raining and Daisy is riding her bike.
Finally, suppose that both $P$ and $Q$ are false. That is, it is raining and Daisy is not riding her bike. As in the previous situation, since my statement was $P \to Q$, I made no claim about what would happen if it was raining, and so I did not tell a lie. So the statement $P \to Q$ cannot be false in this case and so we consider it to be true.

Progress Check 1.4: xplorations with Conditional Statements

1 . Consider the following sentence:

If $x$ is a positive real number, then $x^2 + 8x$ is a positive real number.

Although the hypothesis and conclusion of this conditional sentence are not statements, the conditional sentence itself can be considered to be a statement as long as we know what possible numbers may be used for the variable $x$. From the context of this sentence, it seems that we can substitute any positive real number for $x$. We can also substitute 0 for $x$ or a negative real number for x provided that we are willing to work with a false hypothesis in the conditional statement. (In Chapter 2 , we will learn how to be more careful and precise with these types of conditional statements.)

(a) Notice that if $x = -3$, then $x^2 + 8x = -15$, which is negative. Does this mean that the given conditional statement is false?

(b) Notice that if $x = 4$, then $x^2 + 8x = 48$, which is positive. Does this mean that the given conditional statement is true?

(c) Do you think this conditional statement is true or false? Record the results for at least five different examples where the hypothesis of this conditional statement is true.

2 . “If $n$ is a positive integer, then $n^2 - n +41$ is a prime number.” (Remember that a prime number is a positive integer greater than 1 whose only positive factors are 1 and itself.) To explore whether or not this statement is true, try using (and recording your results) for $n = 1$, $n = 2$, $n = 3$, $n = 4$, $n = 5$, and $n = 10$. Then record the results for at least four other values of $n$. Does this conditional statement appear to be true?

Further Remarks about Conditional Statements

Suppose that Ed has exactly $52 in his wallet. The following four statements will use the four possible truth combinations for the hypothesis and conclusion of a conditional statement.

If Ed has exactly $52 in his wallet, then he has $20 in his wallet. This is a true statement. Notice that both the hypothesis and the conclusion are true.
If Ed has exactly $52 in his wallet, then he has $100 in his wallet. This statement is false. Notice that the hypothesis is true and the conclusion is false.
If Ed has $100 in his wallet, then he has at least $50 in his wallet. This statement is true regardless of how much money he has in his wallet. In this case, the hypothesis is false and the conclusion is true.

This is admittedly a contrived example but it does illustrate that the conventions for the truth value of a conditional statement make sense. The message is that in order to be complete in mathematics, we need to have conventions about when a conditional statement is true and when it is false.

If $n$ is a positive integer, then $(n^2 - n + 41)$ is a prime number.

Perhaps for all of the values you tried for $n$, $(n^2 - n + 41)$ turned out to be a prime number. However, if we try $n = 41$, we ge $n^2 - n + 41 = 41^2 - 41 + 41$ $n^2 - n + 41 = 41^2$ So in the case where $n = 41$, the hypothesis is true (41 is a positive integer) and the conclusion is false $41^2$ is not prime. Therefore, 41 is a counterexample for this conjecture and the conditional statement “If $n$ is a positive integer, then $(n^2 - n + 41)$ is a prime number” is false. There are other counterexamples (such as $n = 42$, $n = 45$, and $n = 50$), but only one counterexample is needed to prove that the statement is false.

Although one example can be used to prove that a conditional statement is false, in most cases, we cannot use examples to prove that a conditional statement is true. For example, in Progress Check 1.4 , we substituted values for $x$ for the conditional statement “If $x$ is a positive real number, then $x^2 + 8x$ is a positive real number.” For every positive real number used for $x$, we saw that $x^2 + 8x$ was positive. However, this does not prove the conditional statement to be true because it is impossible to substitute every positive real number for $x$. So, although we may believe this statement is true, to be able to conclude it is true, we need to write a mathematical proof. Methods of proof will be discussed in Section 1.2 and Chapter 3 .

Progress Check 1.5: Working with a Conditional Statement

The following statement is a true statement, which is proven in many calculus texts.

If the function $f$ is differentiable at $a$, then the function $f$ is continuous at $a$.

Using only this true statement, is it possible to make a conclusion about the function in each of the following cases?

It is known that the function $f$, where $f(x) = \sin x$, is differentiable at 0.
It is known that the function $f$, where $f(x) = \sqrt[3]x$, is not differentiable at 0.
It is known that the function $f$, where $f(x) = |x|$, is continuous at 0.
It is known that the function $f$, where $f(x) = \dfrac{|x|}{x}$ is not continuous at 0.

Closure Properties of Number Systems

The primary number system used in algebra and calculus is the real number system . We usually use the symbol R to stand for the set of all real numbers. The real numbers consist of the rational numbers and the irrational numbers. The rational numbers are those real numbers that can be written as a quotient of two integers (with a nonzero denominator), and the irrational numbers are those real numbers that cannot be written as a quotient of two integers. That is, a rational number can be written in the form of a fraction, and an irrational number cannot be written in the form of a fraction. Some common irrational numbers are $\sqrt2$, $\pi$ and $e$. We usually use the symbol $\mathbb{Q}$ to represent the set of all rational numbers. (The letter $\mathbb{Q}$ is used because rational numbers are quotients of integers.) There is no standard symbol for the set of all irrational numbers.

Perhaps the most basic number system used in mathematics is the set of natural numbers . The natural numbers consist of the positive whole numbers such as 1, 2, 3, 107, and 203. We will use the symbol $\mathbb{N}$ to stand for the set of natural numbers. Another basic number system that we will be working with is the set of integers . The integers consist of zero, the positive whole numbers, and the negatives of the positive whole numbers. If $n$ is an integer, we can write $n = \dfrac{n}{1}$. So each integer is a rational number and hence also a real number.

We will use the letter $\mathbb{Z}$ to stand for the set of integers. (The letter $\mathbb{Z}$ is from the German word, $Zahlen$, for numbers.) Three of the basic properties of the integers are that the set $\mathbb{Z}$ is closed under addition , the set $\mathbb{Z}$ is closed under multiplication , and the set of integers is closed under subtraction. This means that

If $x$ and $y$ are integers, then $x + y$ is an integer;
If $x$ and $y$ are integers, then $x \cdot y$ is an integer; and
If $x$ and $y$ are integers, then $x - y$ is an integer.

Notice that these so-called closure properties are defined in terms of conditional statements. This means that if we can find one instance where the hypothesis is true and the conclusion is false, then the conditional statement is false.

Example 1.6: Closure

In order for the set of natural numbers to be closed under subtraction, the following conditional statement would have to be true: If $x$ and $y$ are natural numbers, then $x - y$ is a natural number. However, since 5 and 8 are natural numbers, $5 - 8 = -3$, which is not a natural number, this conditional statement is false. Therefore, the set of natural numbers is not closed under subtraction.
We can use the rules for multiplying fractions and the closure rules for the integers to show that the rational numbers are closed under multiplication. If $\dfrac{a}{b}$ and $\dfrac{c}{d}$ are rational numbers (so $a$, $b$, $c$, and $d$ are integers and $b$ and $d$ are not zero), then $\dfrac{a}{b} \cdot \dfrac{c}{d} = \dfrac{ac}{bd}.$ Since the integers are closed under multiplication, we know that $ac$ and $bd$ are integers and since $b \ne 0$ and $d \ne 0$, $bd \ne 0$. Hence, $\dfrac{ac}{bd}$ is a rational number and this shows that the rational numbers are closed under multiplication.

Progress Check 1.7: Closure Properties

Answer each of the following questions.

Is the set of rational numbers closed under addition? Explain.
Is the set of integers closed under division? Explain.
Is the set of rational numbers closed under subtraction? Explain.
Which of the following sentences are statements? (a) $3^2 + 4^2 = 5^2.$ (b) $a^2 + b^2 = c^2.$ (c) There exists integers $a$, $b$, and $c$ such that $a^2 + b^2 = c^2.$ (d) If $x^2 = 4$, then $x = 2.$ (e) For each real number $x$, if $x^2 = 4$, then $x = 2.$ (f) For each real number $t$, $\sin^2t + \cos^2t = 1.$ (g) $\sin x < \sin (\frac{\pi}{4}).$ (h) If $n$ is a prime number, then $n^2$ has three positive factors. (i) 1 + $\tan^2 \theta = \text{sec}^2 \theta.$ (j) Every rectangle is a parallelogram. (k) Every even natural number greater than or equal to 4 is the sum of two prime numbers.
Identify the hypothesis and the conclusion for each of the following conditional statements. (a) If $n$ is a prime number, then $n^2$ has three positive factors. (b) If $a$ is an irrational number and $b$ is an irrational number, then $a \cdot b$ is an irrational number. (c) If $p$ is a prime number, then $p = 2$ or $p$ is an odd number. (d) If $p$ is a prime number and $p \ne 2$ or $p$ is an odd number. (e) $p \ne 2$ or $p$ is a even number, then $p$ is not prime.
Determine whether each of the following conditional statements is true or false. (a) If 10 < 7, then 3 = 4. (b) If 7 < 10, then 3 = 4. (c) If 10 < 7, then 3 + 5 = 8. (d) If 7 < 10, then 3 + 5 = 8.
Determine the conditions under which each of the following conditional sentences will be a true statement. (a) If a + 2 = 5, then 8 < 5. (b) If 5 < 8, then a + 2 = 5.
Let $P$ be the statement “Student X passed every assignment in Calculus I,” and let $Q$ be the statement “Student X received a grade of C or better in Calculus I.” (a) What does it mean for $P$ to be true? What does it mean for $Q$ to be true? (b) Suppose that Student X passed every assignment in Calculus I and received a grade of B-, and that the instructor made the statement $P \to Q$. Would you say that the instructor lied or told the truth? (c) Suppose that Student X passed every assignment in Calculus I and received a grade of C-, and that the instructor made the statement $P \to Q$. Would you say that the instructor lied or told the truth? (d) Now suppose that Student X did not pass two assignments in Calculus I and received a grade of D, and that the instructor made the statement $P \to Q$. Would you say that the instructor lied or told the truth? (e) How are Parts ( 5b ), ( 5c ), and ( 5d ) related to the truth table for $P \to Q$?

Theorem If f is a quadratic function of the form $f(x) = ax^2 + bx + c$ and a < 0, then the function f has a maximum value when $x = \dfrac{-b}{2a}$. Using only this theorem, what can be concluded about the functions given by the following formulas? (a) $g (x) = -8x^2 + 5x - 2$ (b) $h (x) = -\dfrac{1}{3}x^2 + 3x$ (c) $k (x) = 8x^2 - 5x - 7$ (d) $j (x) = -\dfrac{71}{99}x^2 +210$ (e) $f (x) = -4x^2 - 3x + 7$ (f) $F (x) = -x^4 + x^3 + 9$

Theorem If $f$ is a quadratic function of the form $f(x) = ax^2 + bx + c$ and ac < 0, then the function $f$ has two x-intercepts.

Using only this theorem, what can be concluded about the functions given by the following formulas? (a) $g (x) = -8x^2 + 5x - 2$ (b) $h (x) = -\dfrac{1}{3}x^2 + 3x$ (c) $k (x) = 8x^2 - 5x - 7$ (d) $j (x) = -\dfrac{71}{99}x^2 +210$ (e) $f (x) = -4x^2 - 3x + 7$ (f) $F (x) = -x^4 + x^3 + 9$

Theorem A. If $f$ is a cubic function of the form $f (x) = x^3 - x + b$ and b > 1, then the function $f$ has exactly one $x$-intercept. Following is another theorem about $x$-intercepts of functions: Theorem B . If $f$ and $g$ are functions with $g (x) = k \cdot f (x)$, where $k$ is a nonzero real number, then $f$ and $g$ have exactly the same $x$-intercepts.

Using only these two theorems and some simple algebraic manipulations, what can be concluded about the functions given by the following formulas? (a) $f (x) = x^3 -x + 7$ (b) $g (x) = x^3 + x +7$ (c) $h (x) = -x^3 + x - 5$ (d) $k (x) = 2x^3 + 2x + 3$ (e) $r (x) = x^4 - x + 11$ (f) $F (x) = 2x^3 - 2x + 7$

(a) Is the set of natural numbers closed under division? (b) Is the set of rational numbers closed under division? (c) Is the set of nonzero rational numbers closed under division? (d) Is the set of positive rational numbers closed under division? (e) Is the set of positive real numbers closed under subtraction? (f) Is the set of negative rational numbers closed under division? (g) Is the set of negative integers closed under addition? Explorations and Activities
Exploring Propositions . In Progress Check 1.2 , we used exploration to show that certain statements were false and to make conjectures that certain statements were true. We can also use exploration to formulate a conjecture that we believe to be true. For example, if we calculate successive powers of $2, (2^1, 2^2, 2^3, 2^4, 2^5, ...)$ and examine the units digits of these numbers, we could make the following conjectures (among others): $\bullet$ If $n$ is a natural number, then the units digit of $2^n$ must be 2, 4, 6, or 8. $\bullet$ The units digits of the successive powers of 2 repeat according to the pattern “2, 4, 8, 6.” (a) Is it possible to formulate a conjecture about the units digits of successive powers of $4 (4^1, 4^2, 4^3, 4^4, 4^5,...)$? If so, formulate at least one conjecture. (b) Is it possible to formulate a conjecture about the units digit of numbers of the form $7^n - 2^n$, where $n$ is a natural number? If so, formulate a conjecture in the form of a conditional statement in the form “If $n$ is a natural number, then ... .” (c) Let $f (x) = e^(2x)$. Determine the first eight derivatives of this function. What do you observe? Formulate a conjecture that appears to be true. The conjecture should be written as a conditional statement in the form, “If n is a natural number, then ... .”

Choose Your Test

Sat / act prep online guides and tips, what is a hypothesis and how do i write one.

General Education

Think about something strange and unexplainable in your life. Maybe you get a headache right before it rains, or maybe you think your favorite sports team wins when you wear a certain color. If you wanted to see whether these are just coincidences or scientific fact, you would form a hypothesis, then create an experiment to see whether that hypothesis is true or not.

But what is a hypothesis, anyway? If you’re not sure about what a hypothesis is--or how to test for one!--you’re in the right place. This article will teach you everything you need to know about hypotheses, including:

Defining the term “hypothesis”
Providing hypothesis examples
Giving you tips for how to write your own hypothesis

So let’s get started!

What Is a Hypothesis?

Merriam Webster defines a hypothesis as “an assumption or concession made for the sake of argument.” In other words, a hypothesis is an educated guess . Scientists make a reasonable assumption--or a hypothesis--then design an experiment to test whether it’s true or not. Keep in mind that in science, a hypothesis should be testable. You have to be able to design an experiment that tests your hypothesis in order for it to be valid.

As you could assume from that statement, it’s easy to make a bad hypothesis. But when you’re holding an experiment, it’s even more important that your guesses be good...after all, you’re spending time (and maybe money!) to figure out more about your observation. That’s why we refer to a hypothesis as an educated guess--good hypotheses are based on existing data and research to make them as sound as possible.

Hypotheses are one part of what’s called the scientific method . Every (good) experiment or study is based in the scientific method. The scientific method gives order and structure to experiments and ensures that interference from scientists or outside influences does not skew the results. It’s important that you understand the concepts of the scientific method before holding your own experiment. Though it may vary among scientists, the scientific method is generally made up of six steps (in order):

Observation
Asking questions
Forming a hypothesis
Analyze the data
Communicate your results

You’ll notice that the hypothesis comes pretty early on when conducting an experiment. That’s because experiments work best when they’re trying to answer one specific question. And you can’t conduct an experiment until you know what you’re trying to prove!

Independent and Dependent Variables

After doing your research, you’re ready for another important step in forming your hypothesis: identifying variables. Variables are basically any factor that could influence the outcome of your experiment . Variables have to be measurable and related to the topic being studied.

There are two types of variables: independent variables and dependent variables. I ndependent variables remain constant . For example, age is an independent variable; it will stay the same, and researchers can look at different ages to see if it has an effect on the dependent variable.

Speaking of dependent variables... dependent variables are subject to the influence of the independent variable , meaning that they are not constant. Let’s say you want to test whether a person’s age affects how much sleep they need. In that case, the independent variable is age (like we mentioned above), and the dependent variable is how much sleep a person gets.

Variables will be crucial in writing your hypothesis. You need to be able to identify which variable is which, as both the independent and dependent variables will be written into your hypothesis. For instance, in a study about exercise, the independent variable might be the speed at which the respondents walk for thirty minutes, and the dependent variable would be their heart rate. In your study and in your hypothesis, you’re trying to understand the relationship between the two variables.

Elements of a Good Hypothesis

The best hypotheses start by asking the right questions . For instance, if you’ve observed that the grass is greener when it rains twice a week, you could ask what kind of grass it is, what elevation it’s at, and if the grass across the street responds to rain in the same way. Any of these questions could become the backbone of experiments to test why the grass gets greener when it rains fairly frequently.

As you’re asking more questions about your first observation, make sure you’re also making more observations . If it doesn’t rain for two weeks and the grass still looks green, that’s an important observation that could influence your hypothesis. You'll continue observing all throughout your experiment, but until the hypothesis is finalized, every observation should be noted.

Finally, you should consult secondary research before writing your hypothesis . Secondary research is comprised of results found and published by other people. You can usually find this information online or at your library. Additionally, m ake sure the research you find is credible and related to your topic. If you’re studying the correlation between rain and grass growth, it would help you to research rain patterns over the past twenty years for your county, published by a local agricultural association. You should also research the types of grass common in your area, the type of grass in your lawn, and whether anyone else has conducted experiments about your hypothesis. Also be sure you’re checking the quality of your research . Research done by a middle school student about what minerals can be found in rainwater would be less useful than an article published by a local university.

Writing Your Hypothesis

Once you’ve considered all of the factors above, you’re ready to start writing your hypothesis. Hypotheses usually take a certain form when they’re written out in a research report.

When you boil down your hypothesis statement, you are writing down your best guess and not the question at hand . This means that your statement should be written as if it is fact already, even though you are simply testing it.

The reason for this is that, after you have completed your study, you'll either accept or reject your if-then or your null hypothesis. All hypothesis testing examples should be measurable and able to be confirmed or denied. You cannot confirm a question, only a statement!

In fact, you come up with hypothesis examples all the time! For instance, when you guess on the outcome of a basketball game, you don’t say, “Will the Miami Heat beat the Boston Celtics?” but instead, “I think the Miami Heat will beat the Boston Celtics.” You state it as if it is already true, even if it turns out you’re wrong. You do the same thing when writing your hypothesis.

Additionally, keep in mind that hypotheses can range from very specific to very broad. These hypotheses can be specific, but if your hypothesis testing examples involve a broad range of causes and effects, your hypothesis can also be broad.

The Two Types of Hypotheses

Now that you understand what goes into a hypothesis, it’s time to look more closely at the two most common types of hypothesis: the if-then hypothesis and the null hypothesis.

#1: If-Then Hypotheses

First of all, if-then hypotheses typically follow this formula:

If ____ happens, then ____ will happen.

The goal of this type of hypothesis is to test the causal relationship between the independent and dependent variable. It’s fairly simple, and each hypothesis can vary in how detailed it can be. We create if-then hypotheses all the time with our daily predictions. Here are some examples of hypotheses that use an if-then structure from daily life:

If I get enough sleep, I’ll be able to get more work done tomorrow.
If the bus is on time, I can make it to my friend’s birthday party.
If I study every night this week, I’ll get a better grade on my exam.

In each of these situations, you’re making a guess on how an independent variable (sleep, time, or studying) will affect a dependent variable (the amount of work you can do, making it to a party on time, or getting better grades).

You may still be asking, “What is an example of a hypothesis used in scientific research?” Take one of the hypothesis examples from a real-world study on whether using technology before bed affects children’s sleep patterns. The hypothesis read s:

“We hypothesized that increased hours of tablet- and phone-based screen time at bedtime would be inversely correlated with sleep quality and child attention.”

It might not look like it, but this is an if-then statement. The researchers basically said, “If children have more screen usage at bedtime, then their quality of sleep and attention will be worse.” The sleep quality and attention are the dependent variables and the screen usage is the independent variable. (Usually, the independent variable comes after the “if” and the dependent variable comes after the “then,” as it is the independent variable that affects the dependent variable.) This is an excellent example of how flexible hypothesis statements can be, as long as the general idea of “if-then” and the independent and dependent variables are present.

#2: Null Hypotheses

Your if-then hypothesis is not the only one needed to complete a successful experiment, however. You also need a null hypothesis to test it against. In its most basic form, the null hypothesis is the opposite of your if-then hypothesis . When you write your null hypothesis, you are writing a hypothesis that suggests that your guess is not true, and that the independent and dependent variables have no relationship .

One null hypothesis for the cell phone and sleep study from the last section might say:

“If children have more screen usage at bedtime, their quality of sleep and attention will not be worse.”

In this case, this is a null hypothesis because it’s asking the opposite of the original thesis!

Conversely, if your if-then hypothesis suggests that your two variables have no relationship, then your null hypothesis would suggest that there is one. So, pretend that there is a study that is asking the question, “Does the amount of followers on Instagram influence how long people spend on the app?” The independent variable is the amount of followers, and the dependent variable is the time spent. But if you, as the researcher, don’t think there is a relationship between the number of followers and time spent, you might write an if-then hypothesis that reads:

“If people have many followers on Instagram, they will not spend more time on the app than people who have less.”

In this case, the if-then suggests there isn’t a relationship between the variables. In that case, one of the null hypothesis examples might say:

“If people have many followers on Instagram, they will spend more time on the app than people who have less.”

You then test both the if-then and the null hypothesis to gauge if there is a relationship between the variables, and if so, how much of a relationship.

4 Tips to Write the Best Hypothesis

If you’re going to take the time to hold an experiment, whether in school or by yourself, you’re also going to want to take the time to make sure your hypothesis is a good one. The best hypotheses have four major elements in common: plausibility, defined concepts, observability, and general explanation.

#1: Plausibility

At first glance, this quality of a hypothesis might seem obvious. When your hypothesis is plausible, that means it’s possible given what we know about science and general common sense. However, improbable hypotheses are more common than you might think.

Imagine you’re studying weight gain and television watching habits. If you hypothesize that people who watch more than twenty hours of television a week will gain two hundred pounds or more over the course of a year, this might be improbable (though it’s potentially possible). Consequently, c ommon sense can tell us the results of the study before the study even begins.

Improbable hypotheses generally go against science, as well. Take this hypothesis example:

“If a person smokes one cigarette a day, then they will have lungs just as healthy as the average person’s.”

This hypothesis is obviously untrue, as studies have shown again and again that cigarettes negatively affect lung health. You must be careful that your hypotheses do not reflect your own personal opinion more than they do scientifically-supported findings. This plausibility points to the necessity of research before the hypothesis is written to make sure that your hypothesis has not already been disproven.

#2: Defined Concepts

The more advanced you are in your studies, the more likely that the terms you’re using in your hypothesis are specific to a limited set of knowledge. One of the hypothesis testing examples might include the readability of printed text in newspapers, where you might use words like “kerning” and “x-height.” Unless your readers have a background in graphic design, it’s likely that they won’t know what you mean by these terms. Thus, it’s important to either write what they mean in the hypothesis itself or in the report before the hypothesis.

Here’s what we mean. Which of the following sentences makes more sense to the common person?

If the kerning is greater than average, more words will be read per minute.

If the space between letters is greater than average, more words will be read per minute.

For people reading your report that are not experts in typography, simply adding a few more words will be helpful in clarifying exactly what the experiment is all about. It’s always a good idea to make your research and findings as accessible as possible.

Good hypotheses ensure that you can observe the results.

#3: Observability

In order to measure the truth or falsity of your hypothesis, you must be able to see your variables and the way they interact. For instance, if your hypothesis is that the flight patterns of satellites affect the strength of certain television signals, yet you don’t have a telescope to view the satellites or a television to monitor the signal strength, you cannot properly observe your hypothesis and thus cannot continue your study.

Some variables may seem easy to observe, but if you do not have a system of measurement in place, you cannot observe your hypothesis properly. Here’s an example: if you’re experimenting on the effect of healthy food on overall happiness, but you don’t have a way to monitor and measure what “overall happiness” means, your results will not reflect the truth. Monitoring how often someone smiles for a whole day is not reasonably observable, but having the participants state how happy they feel on a scale of one to ten is more observable.

In writing your hypothesis, always keep in mind how you'll execute the experiment.

#4: Generalizability

Perhaps you’d like to study what color your best friend wears the most often by observing and documenting the colors she wears each day of the week. This might be fun information for her and you to know, but beyond you two, there aren’t many people who could benefit from this experiment. When you start an experiment, you should note how generalizable your findings may be if they are confirmed. Generalizability is basically how common a particular phenomenon is to other people’s everyday life.

Let’s say you’re asking a question about the health benefits of eating an apple for one day only, you need to realize that the experiment may be too specific to be helpful. It does not help to explain a phenomenon that many people experience. If you find yourself with too specific of a hypothesis, go back to asking the big question: what is it that you want to know, and what do you think will happen between your two variables?

Hypothesis Testing Examples

We know it can be hard to write a good hypothesis unless you’ve seen some good hypothesis examples. We’ve included four hypothesis examples based on some made-up experiments. Use these as templates or launch pads for coming up with your own hypotheses.

Experiment #1: Students Studying Outside (Writing a Hypothesis)

You are a student at PrepScholar University. When you walk around campus, you notice that, when the temperature is above 60 degrees, more students study in the quad. You want to know when your fellow students are more likely to study outside. With this information, how do you make the best hypothesis possible?

You must remember to make additional observations and do secondary research before writing your hypothesis. In doing so, you notice that no one studies outside when it’s 75 degrees and raining, so this should be included in your experiment. Also, studies done on the topic beforehand suggested that students are more likely to study in temperatures less than 85 degrees. With this in mind, you feel confident that you can identify your variables and write your hypotheses:

If-then: “If the temperature in Fahrenheit is less than 60 degrees, significantly fewer students will study outside.”

Null: “If the temperature in Fahrenheit is less than 60 degrees, the same number of students will study outside as when it is more than 60 degrees.”

These hypotheses are plausible, as the temperatures are reasonably within the bounds of what is possible. The number of people in the quad is also easily observable. It is also not a phenomenon specific to only one person or at one time, but instead can explain a phenomenon for a broader group of people.

To complete this experiment, you pick the month of October to observe the quad. Every day (except on the days where it’s raining)from 3 to 4 PM, when most classes have released for the day, you observe how many people are on the quad. You measure how many people come and how many leave. You also write down the temperature on the hour.

After writing down all of your observations and putting them on a graph, you find that the most students study on the quad when it is 70 degrees outside, and that the number of students drops a lot once the temperature reaches 60 degrees or below. In this case, your research report would state that you accept or “failed to reject” your first hypothesis with your findings.

Experiment #2: The Cupcake Store (Forming a Simple Experiment)

Let’s say that you work at a bakery. You specialize in cupcakes, and you make only two colors of frosting: yellow and purple. You want to know what kind of customers are more likely to buy what kind of cupcake, so you set up an experiment. Your independent variable is the customer’s gender, and the dependent variable is the color of the frosting. What is an example of a hypothesis that might answer the question of this study?

Here’s what your hypotheses might look like:

If-then: “If customers’ gender is female, then they will buy more yellow cupcakes than purple cupcakes.”

Null: “If customers’ gender is female, then they will be just as likely to buy purple cupcakes as yellow cupcakes.”

This is a pretty simple experiment! It passes the test of plausibility (there could easily be a difference), defined concepts (there’s nothing complicated about cupcakes!), observability (both color and gender can be easily observed), and general explanation ( this would potentially help you make better business decisions ).

Experiment #3: Backyard Bird Feeders (Integrating Multiple Variables and Rejecting the If-Then Hypothesis)

While watching your backyard bird feeder, you realized that different birds come on the days when you change the types of seeds. You decide that you want to see more cardinals in your backyard, so you decide to see what type of food they like the best and set up an experiment.

However, one morning, you notice that, while some cardinals are present, blue jays are eating out of your backyard feeder filled with millet. You decide that, of all of the other birds, you would like to see the blue jays the least. This means you'll have more than one variable in your hypothesis. Your new hypotheses might look like this:

If-then: “If sunflower seeds are placed in the bird feeders, then more cardinals will come than blue jays. If millet is placed in the bird feeders, then more blue jays will come than cardinals.”

Null: “If either sunflower seeds or millet are placed in the bird, equal numbers of cardinals and blue jays will come.”

Through simple observation, you actually find that cardinals come as often as blue jays when sunflower seeds or millet is in the bird feeder. In this case, you would reject your “if-then” hypothesis and “fail to reject” your null hypothesis . You cannot accept your first hypothesis, because it’s clearly not true. Instead you found that there was actually no relation between your different variables. Consequently, you would need to run more experiments with different variables to see if the new variables impact the results.

Experiment #4: In-Class Survey (Including an Alternative Hypothesis)

You’re about to give a speech in one of your classes about the importance of paying attention. You want to take this opportunity to test a hypothesis you’ve had for a while:

If-then: If students sit in the first two rows of the classroom, then they will listen better than students who do not.

Null: If students sit in the first two rows of the classroom, then they will not listen better or worse than students who do not.

You give your speech and then ask your teacher if you can hand out a short survey to the class. On the survey, you’ve included questions about some of the topics you talked about. When you get back the results, you’re surprised to see that not only do the students in the first two rows not pay better attention, but they also scored worse than students in other parts of the classroom! Here, both your if-then and your null hypotheses are not representative of your findings. What do you do?

This is when you reject both your if-then and null hypotheses and instead create an alternative hypothesis . This type of hypothesis is used in the rare circumstance that neither of your hypotheses is able to capture your findings . Now you can use what you’ve learned to draft new hypotheses and test again!

Key Takeaways: Hypothesis Writing

The more comfortable you become with writing hypotheses, the better they will become. The structure of hypotheses is flexible and may need to be changed depending on what topic you are studying. The most important thing to remember is the purpose of your hypothesis and the difference between the if-then and the null . From there, in forming your hypothesis, you should constantly be asking questions, making observations, doing secondary research, and considering your variables. After you have written your hypothesis, be sure to edit it so that it is plausible, clearly defined, observable, and helpful in explaining a general phenomenon.

Writing a hypothesis is something that everyone, from elementary school children competing in a science fair to professional scientists in a lab, needs to know how to do. Hypotheses are vital in experiments and in properly executing the scientific method . When done correctly, hypotheses will set up your studies for success and help you to understand the world a little better, one experiment at a time.

What’s Next?

If you’re studying for the science portion of the ACT, there’s definitely a lot you need to know. We’ve got the tools to help, though! Start by checking out our ultimate study guide for the ACT Science subject test. Once you read through that, be sure to download our recommended ACT Science practice tests , since they’re one of the most foolproof ways to improve your score. (And don’t forget to check out our expert guide book , too.)

If you love science and want to major in a scientific field, you should start preparing in high school . Here are the science classes you should take to set yourself up for success.

If you’re trying to think of science experiments you can do for class (or for a science fair!), here’s a list of 37 awesome science experiments you can do at home

Ashley Sufflé Robinson has a Ph.D. in 19th Century English Literature. As a content writer for PrepScholar, Ashley is passionate about giving college-bound students the in-depth information they need to get into the school of their dreams.

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2.11: If Then Statements

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Hypothesis followed by a conclusion in a conditional statement.

Conditional Statements

A conditional statement (also called an if-then statement ) is a statement with a hypothesis followed by a conclusion . The hypothesis is the first, or “if,” part of a conditional statement. The conclusion is the second, or “then,” part of a conditional statement. The conclusion is the result of a hypothesis.

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If-then statements might not always be written in the “if-then” form. Here are some examples of conditional statements:

Statement 1: If you work overtime, then you’ll be paid time-and-a-half.
Statement 2: I’ll wash the car if the weather is nice.
Statement 3: If 2 divides evenly into $x$, then $x$ is an even number.
Statement 4: I’ll be a millionaire when I win the lottery.
Statement 5: All equiangular triangles are equilateral.

Statements 1 and 3 are written in the “if-then” form. The hypothesis of Statement 1 is “you work overtime.” The conclusion is “you’ll be paid time-and-a-half.” Statement 2 has the hypothesis after the conclusion. If the word “if” is in the middle of the statement, then the hypothesis is after it. The statement can be rewritten: If the weather is nice, then I will wash the car. Statement 4 uses the word “when” instead of “if” and is like Statement 2. It can be written: If I win the lottery, then I will be a millionaire. Statement 5 “if” and “then” are not there. It can be rewritten: If a triangle is equiangular, then it is equilateral.

What if you were given a statement like "All squares are rectangles"? How could you determine the hypothesis and conclusion of this statement?

Example $\PageIndex{1}$

Determine the hypothesis and conclusion: I'll bring an umbrella if it rains.

Hypothesis: "It rains." Conclusion: "I'll bring an umbrella."

Example $\PageIndex{2}$

Determine the hypothesis and conclusion: All right angles are $90^{\circ}$.

Hypothesis: "An angle is right." Conclusion: "It is $90^{\circ}$."

Example $\PageIndex{3}$

Use the statement: I will graduate when I pass Calculus.

Rewrite in if-then form and determine the hypothesis and conclusion.

This statement can be rewritten as If I pass Calculus, then I will graduate. The hypothesis is “I pass Calculus,” and the conclusion is “I will graduate.”

Example $\PageIndex{4}$

Use the statement: All prime numbers are odd.

Rewrite in if-then form, determine the hypothesis and conclusion, and determine whether this is a true statement.

This statement can be rewritten as If a number is prime, then it is odd. The hypothesis is "a number is prime" and the conclusion is "it is odd". This is not a true statement (remember that not all conditional statements will be true!) since 2 is a prime number but it is not odd.

Example $\PageIndex{5}$

Determine the hypothesis and conclusion: Sarah will go to the store if Riley does the laundry.

The statement can be rewritten as "If Riley does the laundry then Sarah will go to the store." The hypothesis is "Riley does the laundry" and the conclusion is "Sarah will go to the store."

Determine the hypothesis and the conclusion for each statement.

If 5 divides evenly into $x$, then $x$ ends in 0 or 5.
If a triangle has three congruent sides, it is an equilateral triangle.
Three points are coplanar if they all lie in the same plane.
If $x=3$, then $x^2=9$.
If you take yoga, then you are relaxed.
All baseball players wear hats.
I'll learn how to drive when I am 16 years old.
If you do your homework, then you can watch TV.
Alternate interior angles are congruent if lines are parallel.
All kids like ice cream.

Additional Resources

Video: If-Then Statements Principles - Basic

Activities: If-Then Statements Discussion Questions

Study Aids: Conditional Statements Study Guide

Practice: If Then Statements

Real World: If Then Statements

Statistics Made Easy

How to Write Hypothesis Test Conclusions (With Examples)

A hypothesis test is used to test whether or not some hypothesis about a population parameter is true.

To perform a hypothesis test in the real world, researchers obtain a random sample from the population and perform a hypothesis test on the sample data, using a null and alternative hypothesis:

Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): The sample data occurs purely from chance.
Alternative Hypothesis (H A ): The sample data is influenced by some non-random cause.

If the p-value of the hypothesis test is less than some significance level (e.g. α = .05), then we reject the null hypothesis .

Otherwise, if the p-value is not less than some significance level then we fail to reject the null hypothesis .

When writing the conclusion of a hypothesis test, we typically include:

Whether we reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis.
The significance level.
A short explanation in the context of the hypothesis test.

For example, we would write:

We reject the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level. There is sufficient evidence to support the claim that…

Or, we would write:

We fail to reject the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level. There is not sufficient evidence to support the claim that…

The following examples show how to write a hypothesis test conclusion in both scenarios.

Example 1: Reject the Null Hypothesis Conclusion

Suppose a biologist believes that a certain fertilizer will cause plants to grow more during a one-month period than they normally do, which is currently 20 inches. To test this, she applies the fertilizer to each of the plants in her laboratory for one month.

She then performs a hypothesis test at a 5% significance level using the following hypotheses:

H 0 : μ = 20 inches (the fertilizer will have no effect on the mean plant growth)
H A : μ > 20 inches (the fertilizer will cause mean plant growth to increase)

Suppose the p-value of the test turns out to be 0.002.

Here is how she would report the results of the hypothesis test:

We reject the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level. There is sufficient evidence to support the claim that this particular fertilizer causes plants to grow more during a one-month period than they normally do.

Example 2: Fail to Reject the Null Hypothesis Conclusion

Suppose the manager of a manufacturing plant wants to test whether or not some new method changes the number of defective widgets produced per month, which is currently 250. To test this, he measures the mean number of defective widgets produced before and after using the new method for one month.

He performs a hypothesis test at a 10% significance level using the following hypotheses:

H 0 : μ after = μ before (the mean number of defective widgets is the same before and after using the new method)
H A : μ after ≠ μ before (the mean number of defective widgets produced is different before and after using the new method)

Suppose the p-value of the test turns out to be 0.27.

Here is how he would report the results of the hypothesis test:

We fail to reject the null hypothesis at the 10% significance level. There is not sufficient evidence to support the claim that the new method leads to a change in the number of defective widgets produced per month.

Additional Resources

The following tutorials provide additional information about hypothesis testing:

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing 4 Examples of Hypothesis Testing in Real Life How to Write a Null Hypothesis

Published by Zach

The Craft of Writing a Strong Hypothesis

Writing a hypothesis is one of the essential elements of a scientific research paper. It needs to be to the point, clearly communicating what your research is trying to accomplish. A blurry, drawn-out, or complexly-structured hypothesis can confuse your readers. Or worse, the editor and peer reviewers.

A captivating hypothesis is not too intricate. This blog will take you through the process so that, by the end of it, you have a better idea of how to convey your research paper's intent in just one sentence.

What is a Hypothesis?

The first step in your scientific endeavor, a hypothesis, is a strong, concise statement that forms the basis of your research. It is not the same as a thesis statement , which is a brief summary of your research paper .

The sole purpose of a hypothesis is to predict your paper's findings, data, and conclusion. It comes from a place of curiosity and intuition . When you write a hypothesis, you're essentially making an educated guess based on scientific prejudices and evidence, which is further proven or disproven through the scientific method.

The reason for undertaking research is to observe a specific phenomenon. A hypothesis, therefore, lays out what the said phenomenon is. And it does so through two variables, an independent and dependent variable.

The independent variable is the cause behind the observation, while the dependent variable is the effect of the cause. A good example of this is “mixing red and blue forms purple.” In this hypothesis, mixing red and blue is the independent variable as you're combining the two colors at your own will. The formation of purple is the dependent variable as, in this case, it is conditional to the independent variable.

Different Types of Hypotheses‌

Types of hypotheses

Some would stand by the notion that there are only two types of hypotheses: a Null hypothesis and an Alternative hypothesis. While that may have some truth to it, it would be better to fully distinguish the most common forms as these terms come up so often, which might leave you out of context.

Apart from Null and Alternative, there are Complex, Simple, Directional, Non-Directional, Statistical, and Associative and casual hypotheses. They don't necessarily have to be exclusive, as one hypothesis can tick many boxes, but knowing the distinctions between them will make it easier for you to construct your own.

1. Null hypothesis

A null hypothesis proposes no relationship between two variables. Denoted by H 0 , it is a negative statement like “Attending physiotherapy sessions does not affect athletes' on-field performance.” Here, the author claims physiotherapy sessions have no effect on on-field performances. Even if there is, it's only a coincidence.

2. Alternative hypothesis

Considered to be the opposite of a null hypothesis, an alternative hypothesis is donated as H1 or Ha. It explicitly states that the dependent variable affects the independent variable. A good alternative hypothesis example is “Attending physiotherapy sessions improves athletes' on-field performance.” or “Water evaporates at 100 °C. ” The alternative hypothesis further branches into directional and non-directional.

Directional hypothesis: A hypothesis that states the result would be either positive or negative is called directional hypothesis. It accompanies H1 with either the ‘<' or ‘>' sign.
Non-directional hypothesis: A non-directional hypothesis only claims an effect on the dependent variable. It does not clarify whether the result would be positive or negative. The sign for a non-directional hypothesis is ‘≠.'

3. Simple hypothesis

A simple hypothesis is a statement made to reflect the relation between exactly two variables. One independent and one dependent. Consider the example, “Smoking is a prominent cause of lung cancer." The dependent variable, lung cancer, is dependent on the independent variable, smoking.

4. Complex hypothesis

In contrast to a simple hypothesis, a complex hypothesis implies the relationship between multiple independent and dependent variables. For instance, “Individuals who eat more fruits tend to have higher immunity, lesser cholesterol, and high metabolism.” The independent variable is eating more fruits, while the dependent variables are higher immunity, lesser cholesterol, and high metabolism.

5. Associative and casual hypothesis

Associative and casual hypotheses don't exhibit how many variables there will be. They define the relationship between the variables. In an associative hypothesis, changing any one variable, dependent or independent, affects others. In a casual hypothesis, the independent variable directly affects the dependent.

6. Empirical hypothesis

Also referred to as the working hypothesis, an empirical hypothesis claims a theory's validation via experiments and observation. This way, the statement appears justifiable and different from a wild guess.

Say, the hypothesis is “Women who take iron tablets face a lesser risk of anemia than those who take vitamin B12.” This is an example of an empirical hypothesis where the researcher the statement after assessing a group of women who take iron tablets and charting the findings.

7. Statistical hypothesis

The point of a statistical hypothesis is to test an already existing hypothesis by studying a population sample. Hypothesis like “44% of the Indian population belong in the age group of 22-27.” leverage evidence to prove or disprove a particular statement.

Characteristics of a Good Hypothesis

Writing a hypothesis is essential as it can make or break your research for you. That includes your chances of getting published in a journal. So when you're designing one, keep an eye out for these pointers:

A research hypothesis has to be simple yet clear to look justifiable enough.
It has to be testable — your research would be rendered pointless if too far-fetched into reality or limited by technology.
It has to be precise about the results —what you are trying to do and achieve through it should come out in your hypothesis.
A research hypothesis should be self-explanatory, leaving no doubt in the reader's mind.
If you are developing a relational hypothesis, you need to include the variables and establish an appropriate relationship among them.
A hypothesis must keep and reflect the scope for further investigations and experiments.

Separating a Hypothesis from a Prediction

Outside of academia, hypothesis and prediction are often used interchangeably. In research writing, this is not only confusing but also incorrect. And although a hypothesis and prediction are guesses at their core, there are many differences between them.

A hypothesis is an educated guess or even a testable prediction validated through research. It aims to analyze the gathered evidence and facts to define a relationship between variables and put forth a logical explanation behind the nature of events.

Predictions are assumptions or expected outcomes made without any backing evidence. They are more fictionally inclined regardless of where they originate from.

For this reason, a hypothesis holds much more weight than a prediction. It sticks to the scientific method rather than pure guesswork. "Planets revolve around the Sun." is an example of a hypothesis as it is previous knowledge and observed trends. Additionally, we can test it through the scientific method.

Whereas "COVID-19 will be eradicated by 2030." is a prediction. Even though it results from past trends, we can't prove or disprove it. So, the only way this gets validated is to wait and watch if COVID-19 cases end by 2030.

Finally, How to Write a Hypothesis

Quick tips on writing a hypothesis

1. Be clear about your research question

A hypothesis should instantly address the research question or the problem statement. To do so, you need to ask a question. Understand the constraints of your undertaken research topic and then formulate a simple and topic-centric problem. Only after that can you develop a hypothesis and further test for evidence.

2. Carry out a recce

Once you have your research's foundation laid out, it would be best to conduct preliminary research. Go through previous theories, academic papers, data, and experiments before you start curating your research hypothesis. It will give you an idea of your hypothesis's viability or originality.

Making use of references from relevant research papers helps draft a good research hypothesis. SciSpace Discover offers a repository of over 270 million research papers to browse through and gain a deeper understanding of related studies on a particular topic. Additionally, you can use SciSpace Copilot , your AI research assistant, for reading any lengthy research paper and getting a more summarized context of it. A hypothesis can be formed after evaluating many such summarized research papers. Copilot also offers explanations for theories and equations, explains paper in simplified version, allows you to highlight any text in the paper or clip math equations and tables and provides a deeper, clear understanding of what is being said. This can improve the hypothesis by helping you identify potential research gaps.

3. Create a 3-dimensional hypothesis

Variables are an essential part of any reasonable hypothesis. So, identify your independent and dependent variable(s) and form a correlation between them. The ideal way to do this is to write the hypothetical assumption in the ‘if-then' form. If you use this form, make sure that you state the predefined relationship between the variables.

In another way, you can choose to present your hypothesis as a comparison between two variables. Here, you must specify the difference you expect to observe in the results.

4. Write the first draft

Now that everything is in place, it's time to write your hypothesis. For starters, create the first draft. In this version, write what you expect to find from your research.

Clearly separate your independent and dependent variables and the link between them. Don't fixate on syntax at this stage. The goal is to ensure your hypothesis addresses the issue.

5. Proof your hypothesis

After preparing the first draft of your hypothesis, you need to inspect it thoroughly. It should tick all the boxes, like being concise, straightforward, relevant, and accurate. Your final hypothesis has to be well-structured as well.

Research projects are an exciting and crucial part of being a scholar. And once you have your research question, you need a great hypothesis to begin conducting research. Thus, knowing how to write a hypothesis is very important.

Now that you have a firmer grasp on what a good hypothesis constitutes, the different kinds there are, and what process to follow, you will find it much easier to write your hypothesis, which ultimately helps your research.

Now it's easier than ever to streamline your research workflow with SciSpace Discover . Its integrated, comprehensive end-to-end platform for research allows scholars to easily discover, write and publish their research and fosters collaboration.

It includes everything you need, including a repository of over 270 million research papers across disciplines, SEO-optimized summaries and public profiles to show your expertise and experience.

If you found these tips on writing a research hypothesis useful, head over to our blog on Statistical Hypothesis Testing to learn about the top researchers, papers, and institutions in this domain.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. what is the definition of hypothesis.

According to the Oxford dictionary, a hypothesis is defined as “An idea or explanation of something that is based on a few known facts, but that has not yet been proved to be true or correct”.

2. What is an example of hypothesis?

The hypothesis is a statement that proposes a relationship between two or more variables. An example: "If we increase the number of new users who join our platform by 25%, then we will see an increase in revenue."

3. What is an example of null hypothesis?

A null hypothesis is a statement that there is no relationship between two variables. The null hypothesis is written as H0. The null hypothesis states that there is no effect. For example, if you're studying whether or not a particular type of exercise increases strength, your null hypothesis will be "there is no difference in strength between people who exercise and people who don't."

4. What are the types of research?

• Fundamental research

• Applied research

• Qualitative research

• Quantitative research

• Mixed research

• Exploratory research

• Longitudinal research

• Cross-sectional research

• Field research

• Laboratory research

• Fixed research

• Flexible research

• Action research

• Policy research

• Classification research

• Comparative research

• Causal research

• Inductive research

• Deductive research

5. How to write a hypothesis?

• Your hypothesis should be able to predict the relationship and outcome.

• Avoid wordiness by keeping it simple and brief.

• Your hypothesis should contain observable and testable outcomes.

• Your hypothesis should be relevant to the research question.

6. What are the 2 types of hypothesis?

• Null hypotheses are used to test the claim that "there is no difference between two groups of data".

• Alternative hypotheses test the claim that "there is a difference between two data groups".

7. Difference between research question and research hypothesis?

A research question is a broad, open-ended question you will try to answer through your research. A hypothesis is a statement based on prior research or theory that you expect to be true due to your study. Example - Research question: What are the factors that influence the adoption of the new technology? Research hypothesis: There is a positive relationship between age, education and income level with the adoption of the new technology.

8. What is plural for hypothesis?

The plural of hypothesis is hypotheses. Here's an example of how it would be used in a statement, "Numerous well-considered hypotheses are presented in this part, and they are supported by tables and figures that are well-illustrated."

9. What is the red queen hypothesis?

The red queen hypothesis in evolutionary biology states that species must constantly evolve to avoid extinction because if they don't, they will be outcompeted by other species that are evolving. Leigh Van Valen first proposed it in 1973; since then, it has been tested and substantiated many times.

10. Who is known as the father of null hypothesis?

The father of the null hypothesis is Sir Ronald Fisher. He published a paper in 1925 that introduced the concept of null hypothesis testing, and he was also the first to use the term itself.

11. When to reject null hypothesis?

You need to find a significant difference between your two populations to reject the null hypothesis. You can determine that by running statistical tests such as an independent sample t-test or a dependent sample t-test. You should reject the null hypothesis if the p-value is less than 0.05.

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Biology library

Course: biology library > unit 1, the scientific method.

Controlled experiments
The scientific method and experimental design

Introduction

Make an observation.
Ask a question.
Form a hypothesis , or testable explanation.
Make a prediction based on the hypothesis.
Test the prediction.
Iterate: use the results to make new hypotheses or predictions.

Scientific method example: Failure to toast

1. make an observation..

Observation: the toaster won't toast.

2. Ask a question.

Question: Why won't my toaster toast?

3. Propose a hypothesis.

Hypothesis: Maybe the outlet is broken.

4. Make predictions.

Prediction: If I plug the toaster into a different outlet, then it will toast the bread.

5. Test the predictions.

Test of prediction: Plug the toaster into a different outlet and try again.
If the toaster does toast, then the hypothesis is supported—likely correct.
If the toaster doesn't toast, then the hypothesis is not supported—likely wrong.

Logical possibility

Practical possibility, building a body of evidence, 6. iterate..

Iteration time!
If the hypothesis was supported, we might do additional tests to confirm it, or revise it to be more specific. For instance, we might investigate why the outlet is broken.
If the hypothesis was not supported, we would come up with a new hypothesis. For instance, the next hypothesis might be that there's a broken wire in the toaster.

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How to Write a Great Hypothesis

Hypothesis Format, Examples, and Tips

Kendra Cherry, MS, is a psychosocial rehabilitation specialist, psychology educator, and author of the "Everything Psychology Book."

what is the hypothesis and conclusion of each statement

Amy Morin, LCSW, is a psychotherapist and international bestselling author. Her books, including "13 Things Mentally Strong People Don't Do," have been translated into more than 40 languages. Her TEDx talk, "The Secret of Becoming Mentally Strong," is one of the most viewed talks of all time.

Verywell / Alex Dos Diaz

The Scientific Method

Hypothesis Format

Falsifiability of a hypothesis, operational definitions, types of hypotheses, hypotheses examples.

Collecting Data

Frequently Asked Questions

A hypothesis is a tentative statement about the relationship between two or more variables. It is a specific, testable prediction about what you expect to happen in a study.

One hypothesis example would be a study designed to look at the relationship between sleep deprivation and test performance might have a hypothesis that states: "This study is designed to assess the hypothesis that sleep-deprived people will perform worse on a test than individuals who are not sleep-deprived."

This article explores how a hypothesis is used in psychology research, how to write a good hypothesis, and the different types of hypotheses you might use.

The Hypothesis in the Scientific Method

In the scientific method , whether it involves research in psychology, biology, or some other area, a hypothesis represents what the researchers think will happen in an experiment. The scientific method involves the following steps:

Forming a question
Performing background research
Creating a hypothesis
Designing an experiment
Collecting data
Analyzing the results
Drawing conclusions
Communicating the results

The hypothesis is a prediction, but it involves more than a guess. Most of the time, the hypothesis begins with a question which is then explored through background research. It is only at this point that researchers begin to develop a testable hypothesis. Unless you are creating an exploratory study, your hypothesis should always explain what you expect to happen.

In a study exploring the effects of a particular drug, the hypothesis might be that researchers expect the drug to have some type of effect on the symptoms of a specific illness. In psychology, the hypothesis might focus on how a certain aspect of the environment might influence a particular behavior.

Remember, a hypothesis does not have to be correct. While the hypothesis predicts what the researchers expect to see, the goal of the research is to determine whether this guess is right or wrong. When conducting an experiment, researchers might explore a number of factors to determine which ones might contribute to the ultimate outcome.

In many cases, researchers may find that the results of an experiment do not support the original hypothesis. When writing up these results, the researchers might suggest other options that should be explored in future studies.

In many cases, researchers might draw a hypothesis from a specific theory or build on previous research. For example, prior research has shown that stress can impact the immune system. So a researcher might hypothesize: "People with high-stress levels will be more likely to contract a common cold after being exposed to the virus than people who have low-stress levels."

In other instances, researchers might look at commonly held beliefs or folk wisdom. "Birds of a feather flock together" is one example of folk wisdom that a psychologist might try to investigate. The researcher might pose a specific hypothesis that "People tend to select romantic partners who are similar to them in interests and educational level."

Elements of a Good Hypothesis

So how do you write a good hypothesis? When trying to come up with a hypothesis for your research or experiments, ask yourself the following questions:

Is your hypothesis based on your research on a topic?
Can your hypothesis be tested?
Does your hypothesis include independent and dependent variables?

Before you come up with a specific hypothesis, spend some time doing background research. Once you have completed a literature review, start thinking about potential questions you still have. Pay attention to the discussion section in the journal articles you read . Many authors will suggest questions that still need to be explored.

To form a hypothesis, you should take these steps:

Collect as many observations about a topic or problem as you can.
Evaluate these observations and look for possible causes of the problem.
Create a list of possible explanations that you might want to explore.
After you have developed some possible hypotheses, think of ways that you could confirm or disprove each hypothesis through experimentation. This is known as falsifiability.

In the scientific method , falsifiability is an important part of any valid hypothesis. In order to test a claim scientifically, it must be possible that the claim could be proven false.

Students sometimes confuse the idea of falsifiability with the idea that it means that something is false, which is not the case. What falsifiability means is that if something was false, then it is possible to demonstrate that it is false.

One of the hallmarks of pseudoscience is that it makes claims that cannot be refuted or proven false.

A variable is a factor or element that can be changed and manipulated in ways that are observable and measurable. However, the researcher must also define how the variable will be manipulated and measured in the study.

For example, a researcher might operationally define the variable " test anxiety " as the results of a self-report measure of anxiety experienced during an exam. A "study habits" variable might be defined by the amount of studying that actually occurs as measured by time.

These precise descriptions are important because many things can be measured in a number of different ways. One of the basic principles of any type of scientific research is that the results must be replicable. By clearly detailing the specifics of how the variables were measured and manipulated, other researchers can better understand the results and repeat the study if needed.

Some variables are more difficult than others to define. How would you operationally define a variable such as aggression ? For obvious ethical reasons, researchers cannot create a situation in which a person behaves aggressively toward others.

In order to measure this variable, the researcher must devise a measurement that assesses aggressive behavior without harming other people. In this situation, the researcher might utilize a simulated task to measure aggressiveness.

Hypothesis Checklist

Does your hypothesis focus on something that you can actually test?
Does your hypothesis include both an independent and dependent variable?
Can you manipulate the variables?
Can your hypothesis be tested without violating ethical standards?

The hypothesis you use will depend on what you are investigating and hoping to find. Some of the main types of hypotheses that you might use include:

Simple hypothesis : This type of hypothesis suggests that there is a relationship between one independent variable and one dependent variable.
Complex hypothesis : This type of hypothesis suggests a relationship between three or more variables, such as two independent variables and a dependent variable.
Null hypothesis : This hypothesis suggests no relationship exists between two or more variables.
Alternative hypothesis : This hypothesis states the opposite of the null hypothesis.
Statistical hypothesis : This hypothesis uses statistical analysis to evaluate a representative sample of the population and then generalizes the findings to the larger group.
Logical hypothesis : This hypothesis assumes a relationship between variables without collecting data or evidence.

A hypothesis often follows a basic format of "If {this happens} then {this will happen}." One way to structure your hypothesis is to describe what will happen to the dependent variable if you change the independent variable .

The basic format might be: "If {these changes are made to a certain independent variable}, then we will observe {a change in a specific dependent variable}."

A few examples of simple hypotheses:

"Students who eat breakfast will perform better on a math exam than students who do not eat breakfast."
Complex hypothesis: "Students who experience test anxiety before an English exam will get lower scores than students who do not experience test anxiety."
"Motorists who talk on the phone while driving will be more likely to make errors on a driving course than those who do not talk on the phone."

Examples of a complex hypothesis include:

"People with high-sugar diets and sedentary activity levels are more likely to develop depression."
"Younger people who are regularly exposed to green, outdoor areas have better subjective well-being than older adults who have limited exposure to green spaces."

Examples of a null hypothesis include:

"Children who receive a new reading intervention will have scores different than students who do not receive the intervention."
"There will be no difference in scores on a memory recall task between children and adults."

Examples of an alternative hypothesis:

"Children who receive a new reading intervention will perform better than students who did not receive the intervention."
"Adults will perform better on a memory task than children."

Collecting Data on Your Hypothesis

Once a researcher has formed a testable hypothesis, the next step is to select a research design and start collecting data. The research method depends largely on exactly what they are studying. There are two basic types of research methods: descriptive research and experimental research.

Descriptive Research Methods

Descriptive research such as case studies , naturalistic observations , and surveys are often used when it would be impossible or difficult to conduct an experiment . These methods are best used to describe different aspects of a behavior or psychological phenomenon.

Once a researcher has collected data using descriptive methods, a correlational study can then be used to look at how the variables are related. This type of research method might be used to investigate a hypothesis that is difficult to test experimentally.

Experimental Research Methods

Experimental methods are used to demonstrate causal relationships between variables. In an experiment, the researcher systematically manipulates a variable of interest (known as the independent variable) and measures the effect on another variable (known as the dependent variable).

Unlike correlational studies, which can only be used to determine if there is a relationship between two variables, experimental methods can be used to determine the actual nature of the relationship—whether changes in one variable actually cause another to change.

A Word From Verywell

The hypothesis is a critical part of any scientific exploration. It represents what researchers expect to find in a study or experiment. In situations where the hypothesis is unsupported by the research, the research still has value. Such research helps us better understand how different aspects of the natural world relate to one another. It also helps us develop new hypotheses that can then be tested in the future.

Some examples of how to write a hypothesis include:

"Staying up late will lead to worse test performance the next day."
"People who consume one apple each day will visit the doctor fewer times each year."
"Breaking study sessions up into three 20-minute sessions will lead to better test results than a single 60-minute study session."

The four parts of a hypothesis are:

The research question
The independent variable (IV)
The dependent variable (DV)
The proposed relationship between the IV and DV

Castillo M. The scientific method: a need for something better? . AJNR Am J Neuroradiol. 2013;34(9):1669-71. doi:10.3174/ajnr.A3401

Nevid J. Psychology: Concepts and Applications. Wadworth, 2013.

By Kendra Cherry, MSEd Kendra Cherry, MS, is a psychosocial rehabilitation specialist, psychology educator, and author of the "Everything Psychology Book."

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5.2 - writing hypotheses.

The first step in conducting a hypothesis test is to write the hypothesis statements that are going to be tested. For each test you will have a null hypothesis ($H_0$) and an alternative hypothesis ($H_a$).

When writing hypotheses there are three things that we need to know: (1) the parameter that we are testing (2) the direction of the test (non-directional, right-tailed or left-tailed), and (3) the value of the hypothesized parameter.

At this point we can write hypotheses for a single mean ($\mu$), paired means($\mu_d$), a single proportion ($p$), the difference between two independent means ($\mu_1-\mu_2$), the difference between two proportions ($p_1-p_2$), a simple linear regression slope ($\beta$), and a correlation ($\rho$).
The research question will give us the information necessary to determine if the test is two-tailed (e.g., "different from," "not equal to"), right-tailed (e.g., "greater than," "more than"), or left-tailed (e.g., "less than," "fewer than").
The research question will also give us the hypothesized parameter value. This is the number that goes in the hypothesis statements (i.e., $\mu_0$ and $p_0$). For the difference between two groups, regression, and correlation, this value is typically 0.

Hypotheses are always written in terms of population parameters (e.g., $p$ and $\mu$). The tables below display all of the possible hypotheses for the parameters that we have learned thus far. Note that the null hypothesis always includes the equality (i.e., =).

The Scientific Method by Science Made Simple

Understanding and using the scientific method.

The Scientific Method is a process used to design and perform experiments. It's important to minimize experimental errors and bias, and increase confidence in the accuracy of your results.

In the previous sections, we talked about how to pick a good topic and specific question to investigate. Now we will discuss how to carry out your investigation.

Steps of the Scientific Method

Observation/Research
Experimentation

Now that you have settled on the question you want to ask, it's time to use the Scientific Method to design an experiment to answer that question.

If your experiment isn't designed well, you may not get the correct answer. You may not even get any definitive answer at all!

The Scientific Method is a logical and rational order of steps by which scientists come to conclusions about the world around them. The Scientific Method helps to organize thoughts and procedures so that scientists can be confident in the answers they find.

OBSERVATION is first step, so that you know how you want to go about your research.

HYPOTHESIS is the answer you think you'll find.

PREDICTION is your specific belief about the scientific idea: If my hypothesis is true, then I predict we will discover this.

EXPERIMENT is the tool that you invent to answer the question, and

CONCLUSION is the answer that the experiment gives.

Don't worry, it isn't that complicated. Let's take a closer look at each one of these steps. Then you can understand the tools scientists use for their science experiments, and use them for your own.

OBSERVATION

This step could also be called "research." It is the first stage in understanding the problem.

After you decide on topic, and narrow it down to a specific question, you will need to research everything that you can find about it. You can collect information from your own experiences, books, the internet, or even smaller "unofficial" experiments.

Let's continue the example of a science fair idea about tomatoes in the garden. You like to garden, and notice that some tomatoes are bigger than others and wonder why.

Because of this personal experience and an interest in the problem, you decide to learn more about what makes plants grow.

For this stage of the Scientific Method, it's important to use as many sources as you can find. The more information you have on your science fair topic, the better the design of your experiment is going to be, and the better your science fair project is going to be overall.

Also try to get information from your teachers or librarians, or professionals who know something about your science fair project. They can help to guide you to a solid experimental setup.

The next stage of the Scientific Method is known as the "hypothesis." This word basically means "a possible solution to a problem, based on knowledge and research."

The hypothesis is a simple statement that defines what you think the outcome of your experiment will be.

All of the first stage of the Scientific Method -- the observation, or research stage -- is designed to help you express a problem in a single question ("Does the amount of sunlight in a garden affect tomato size?") and propose an answer to the question based on what you know. The experiment that you will design is done to test the hypothesis.

Using the example of the tomato experiment, here is an example of a hypothesis:

TOPIC: "Does the amount of sunlight a tomato plant receives affect the size of the tomatoes?"

HYPOTHESIS: "I believe that the more sunlight a tomato plant receives, the larger the tomatoes will grow.

This hypothesis is based on:

(1) Tomato plants need sunshine to make food through photosynthesis, and logically, more sun means more food, and;

(2) Through informal, exploratory observations of plants in a garden, those with more sunlight appear to grow bigger.

The hypothesis is your general statement of how you think the scientific phenomenon in question works.

Your prediction lets you get specific -- how will you demonstrate that your hypothesis is true? The experiment that you will design is done to test the prediction.

An important thing to remember during this stage of the scientific method is that once you develop a hypothesis and a prediction, you shouldn't change it, even if the results of your experiment show that you were wrong.

An incorrect prediction does NOT mean that you "failed." It just means that the experiment brought some new facts to light that maybe you hadn't thought about before.

Continuing our tomato plant example, a good prediction would be: Increasing the amount of sunlight tomato plants in my experiment receive will cause an increase in their size compared to identical plants that received the same care but less light.

This is the part of the scientific method that tests your hypothesis. An experiment is a tool that you design to find out if your ideas about your topic are right or wrong.

It is absolutely necessary to design a science fair experiment that will accurately test your hypothesis. The experiment is the most important part of the scientific method. It's the logical process that lets scientists learn about the world.

On the next page, we'll discuss the ways that you can go about designing a science fair experiment idea.

The final step in the scientific method is the conclusion. This is a summary of the experiment's results, and how those results match up to your hypothesis.

You have two options for your conclusions: based on your results, either:

(1) YOU CAN REJECT the hypothesis, or

(2) YOU CAN NOT REJECT the hypothesis.

This is an important point!

You can not PROVE the hypothesis with a single experiment, because there is a chance that you made an error somewhere along the way.

What you can say is that your results SUPPORT the original hypothesis.

If your original hypothesis didn't match up with the final results of your experiment, don't change the hypothesis.

Instead, try to explain what might have been wrong with your original hypothesis. What information were you missing when you made your prediction? What are the possible reasons the hypothesis and experimental results didn't match up?

Remember, a science fair experiment isn't a failure simply because does not agree with your hypothesis. No one will take points off if your prediction wasn't accurate. Many important scientific discoveries were made as a result of experiments gone wrong!

A science fair experiment is only a failure if its design is flawed. A flawed experiment is one that (1) doesn't keep its variables under control, and (2) doesn't sufficiently answer the question that you asked of it.

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Conditional Statement – Definition, Truth Table, Examples, FAQs

What is a conditional statement, how to write a conditional statement, what is a biconditional statement, solved examples on conditional statements, practice problems on conditional statements, frequently asked questions about conditional statements.

A conditional statement is a statement that is written in the “If p, then q” format. Here, the statement p is called the hypothesis and q is called the conclusion. It is a fundamental concept in logic and mathematics.

Conditional statement symbol : p → q

A conditional statement consists of two parts.

The “if” clause, which presents a condition or hypothesis.
The “then” clause, which indicates the consequence or result that follows if the condition is true.

Example : If you brush your teeth, then you won’t get cavities.

Hypothesis (Condition): If you brush your teeth

Conclusion (Consequence): then you won’t get cavities

$Conditional statement$

Conditional Statement: Definition

A conditional statement is characterized by the presence of “if” as an antecedent and “then” as a consequent. A conditional statement, also known as an “if-then” statement consists of two parts:

The “if” clause (hypothesis): This part presents a condition, situation, or assertion. It is the initial condition that is being considered.
The “then” clause (conclusion): This part indicates the consequence, result, or action that will occur if the condition presented in the “if” clause is true or satisfied.

Related Worksheets

$Complete the Statements Using Addition Sentence Worksheet$

Representation of Conditional Statement

The conditional statement of the form ‘If p, then q” is represented as p → q.

It is pronounced as “p implies q.”

Different ways to express a conditional statement are:

p implies q
p is sufficient for q
q is necessary for p

Parts of a Conditional Statement

There are two parts of conditional statements, hypothesis and conclusion. The hypothesis or condition will begin with the “if” part, and the conclusion or action will begin with the “then” part. A conditional statement is also called “implication.”

Conditional Statements Examples:

Example 1: If it is Sunday, then you can go to play.

Hypothesis: If it is Sunday

Conclusion: then you can go to play.

Example 2: If you eat all vegetables, then you can have the dessert.

Condition: If you eat all vegetables

Conclusion: then you can have the dessert

To form a conditional statement, follow these concise steps:

Step 1 : Identify the condition (antecedent or “if” part) and the consequence (consequent or “then” part) of the statement.

Step 2 : Use the “if… then…” structure to connect the condition and consequence.

Step 3 : Ensure the statement expresses a logical relationship where the condition leads to the consequence.

Example 1 : “If you study (condition), then you will pass the exam (consequence).”

This conditional statement asserts that studying leads to passing the exam. If you study (condition is true), then you will pass the exam (consequence is also true).

Example 2 : If you arrange the numbers from smallest to largest, then you will have an ascending order.

Hypothesis: If you arrange the numbers from smallest to largest

Conclusion: then you will have an ascending order

Truth Table for Conditional Statement

The truth table for a conditional statement is a table used in logic to explore the relationship between the truth values of two statements. It lists all possible combinations of truth values for “p” and “q” and determines whether the conditional statement is true or false for each combination.

The truth value of p → q is false only when p is true and q is False.

If the condition is false, the consequence doesn’t affect the truth of the conditional; it’s always true.

In all the other cases, it is true.

The truth table is helpful in the analysis of possible combinations of truth values for hypothesis or condition and conclusion or action. It is useful to understand the presence of truth or false statements.

Converse, Inverse, and Contrapositive

The converse, inverse, and contrapositive are three related conditional statements that are derived from an original conditional statement “p → q.”

Consider a conditional statement: If I run, then I feel great.

Converse:

The converse of “p → q” is “q → p.” It reverses the order of the original statement. While the original statement says “if p, then q,” the converse says “if q, then p.”

Converse: If I feel great, then I run.

Inverse:

The inverse of “p → q” is “~p → ~q,” where “” denotes negation (opposite). It negates both the antecedent (p) and the consequent (q). So, if the original statement says “if p, then q,” the inverse says “if not p, then not q.”

Inverse : If I don’t run, then I don’t feel great.

Contrapositive:

The contrapositive of “p → q” is “~q → ~p.” It reverses the order and also negates both the statements. So, if the original statement says “if p, then q,” the contrapositive says “if not q, then not p.”

Contrapositive: If I don’t feel great, then I don’t run.

A biconditional statement is a type of compound statement in logic that expresses a bidirectional or two-way relationship between two statements. It asserts that “p” is true if and only if “q” is true, and vice versa. In symbolic notation, a biconditional statement is represented as “p ⟺ q.”

In simpler terms, a biconditional statement means that the truth of “p” and “q” are interdependent.

If “p” is true, then “q” must also be true, and if “q” is true, then “p” must be true. Conversely, if “p” is false, then “q” must be false, and if “q” is false, then “p” must be false.

Biconditional statements are often used to express equality, equivalence, or conditions where two statements are mutually dependent for their truth values.

Examples :

I will stop my bike if and only if the traffic light is red.
I will stay if and only if you play my favorite song.

Facts about Conditional Statements

The negation of a conditional statement “p → q” is expressed as “p and not q.” It is denoted as “𝑝 ∧ ∼𝑞.”
The conditional statement is not logically equivalent to its converse and inverse.
The conditional statement is logically equivalent to its contrapositive.
Thus, we can write p → q ∼q → ∼p

In this article, we learned about the fundamentals of conditional statements in mathematical logic, including their structure, parts, truth tables, conditional logic examples, and various related concepts. Understanding conditional statements is key to logical reasoning and problem-solving. Now, let’s solve a few examples and practice MCQs for better comprehension.

Example 1: Identify the hypothesis and conclusion.

If you sing, then I will dance.

Solution :

Given statement: If you sing, then I will dance.

Here, the antecedent or the hypothesis is “if you sing.”

The conclusion is “then I will dance.”

Example 2: State the converse of the statement: “If the switch is off, then the machine won’t work.”

Here, p: The switch is off

q: The machine won’t work.

The conditional statement can be denoted as p → q.

Converse of p → q is written by reversing the order of p and q in the original statement.

Converse of p → q is q → p.

Converse of p → q: q → p: If the machine won’t work, then the switch is off.

Example 3: What is the truth value of the given conditional statement?

If 2+2=5 , then pigs can fly.

Solution:

q: Pigs can fly.

The statement p is false. Now regardless of the truth value of statement q, the overall statement will be true.

F → F = T

Hence, the truth value of the statement is true.

Conditional Statement - Definition, Truth Table, Examples, FAQs

Attend this quiz & Test your knowledge.

What is the antecedent in the given conditional statement? If it’s sunny, then I’ll go to the beach.

A conditional statement can be expressed as, what is the converse of “a → b”, when the antecedent is true and the consequent is false, the conditional statement is.

What is the meaning of conditional statements?

Conditional statements, also known as “if-then” statements, express a cause-and-effect or logical relationship between two propositions.

When does the truth value of a conditional statement is F?

A conditional statement is considered false when the antecedent is true and the consequent is false.

What is the contrapositive of a conditional statement?

The contrapositive reverses the order of the statements and also negates both the statements. It is equivalent in truth value to the original statement.

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Research Hypothesis In Psychology: Types, & Examples

Saul Mcleod, PhD

Editor-in-Chief for Simply Psychology

BSc (Hons) Psychology, MRes, PhD, University of Manchester

Saul Mcleod, PhD., is a qualified psychology teacher with over 18 years of experience in further and higher education. He has been published in peer-reviewed journals, including the Journal of Clinical Psychology.

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Associate Editor for Simply Psychology

BSc (Hons) Psychology, MSc Psychology of Education

Olivia Guy-Evans is a writer and associate editor for Simply Psychology. She has previously worked in healthcare and educational sectors.

On This Page:

A research hypothesis, in its plural form “hypotheses,” is a specific, testable prediction about the anticipated results of a study, established at its outset. It is a key component of the scientific method .

Hypotheses connect theory to data and guide the research process towards expanding scientific understanding

Some key points about hypotheses:

A hypothesis expresses an expected pattern or relationship. It connects the variables under investigation.
It is stated in clear, precise terms before any data collection or analysis occurs. This makes the hypothesis testable.
A hypothesis must be falsifiable. It should be possible, even if unlikely in practice, to collect data that disconfirms rather than supports the hypothesis.
Hypotheses guide research. Scientists design studies to explicitly evaluate hypotheses about how nature works.
For a hypothesis to be valid, it must be testable against empirical evidence. The evidence can then confirm or disprove the testable predictions.
Hypotheses are informed by background knowledge and observation, but go beyond what is already known to propose an explanation of how or why something occurs.

Predictions typically arise from a thorough knowledge of the research literature, curiosity about real-world problems or implications, and integrating this to advance theory. They build on existing literature while providing new insight.

Types of Research Hypotheses

Alternative hypothesis.

The research hypothesis is often called the alternative or experimental hypothesis in experimental research.

It typically suggests a potential relationship between two key variables: the independent variable, which the researcher manipulates, and the dependent variable, which is measured based on those changes.

The alternative hypothesis states a relationship exists between the two variables being studied (one variable affects the other).

A hypothesis is a testable statement or prediction about the relationship between two or more variables. It is a key component of the scientific method. Some key points about hypotheses:

Important hypotheses lead to predictions that can be tested empirically. The evidence can then confirm or disprove the testable predictions.

In summary, a hypothesis is a precise, testable statement of what researchers expect to happen in a study and why. Hypotheses connect theory to data and guide the research process towards expanding scientific understanding.

An experimental hypothesis predicts what change(s) will occur in the dependent variable when the independent variable is manipulated.

It states that the results are not due to chance and are significant in supporting the theory being investigated.

The alternative hypothesis can be directional, indicating a specific direction of the effect, or non-directional, suggesting a difference without specifying its nature. It’s what researchers aim to support or demonstrate through their study.

Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis states no relationship exists between the two variables being studied (one variable does not affect the other). There will be no changes in the dependent variable due to manipulating the independent variable.

It states results are due to chance and are not significant in supporting the idea being investigated.

The null hypothesis, positing no effect or relationship, is a foundational contrast to the research hypothesis in scientific inquiry. It establishes a baseline for statistical testing, promoting objectivity by initiating research from a neutral stance.

Many statistical methods are tailored to test the null hypothesis, determining the likelihood of observed results if no true effect exists.

This dual-hypothesis approach provides clarity, ensuring that research intentions are explicit, and fosters consistency across scientific studies, enhancing the standardization and interpretability of research outcomes.

Nondirectional Hypothesis

A non-directional hypothesis, also known as a two-tailed hypothesis, predicts that there is a difference or relationship between two variables but does not specify the direction of this relationship.

It merely indicates that a change or effect will occur without predicting which group will have higher or lower values.

For example, “There is a difference in performance between Group A and Group B” is a non-directional hypothesis.

Directional Hypothesis

A directional (one-tailed) hypothesis predicts the nature of the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable. It predicts in which direction the change will take place. (i.e., greater, smaller, less, more)

It specifies whether one variable is greater, lesser, or different from another, rather than just indicating that there’s a difference without specifying its nature.

For example, “Exercise increases weight loss” is a directional hypothesis.

Falsifiability

The Falsification Principle, proposed by Karl Popper , is a way of demarcating science from non-science. It suggests that for a theory or hypothesis to be considered scientific, it must be testable and irrefutable.

Falsifiability emphasizes that scientific claims shouldn’t just be confirmable but should also have the potential to be proven wrong.

It means that there should exist some potential evidence or experiment that could prove the proposition false.

However many confirming instances exist for a theory, it only takes one counter observation to falsify it. For example, the hypothesis that “all swans are white,” can be falsified by observing a black swan.

For Popper, science should attempt to disprove a theory rather than attempt to continually provide evidence to support a research hypothesis.

Can a Hypothesis be Proven?

Hypotheses make probabilistic predictions. They state the expected outcome if a particular relationship exists. However, a study result supporting a hypothesis does not definitively prove it is true.

All studies have limitations. There may be unknown confounding factors or issues that limit the certainty of conclusions. Additional studies may yield different results.

In science, hypotheses can realistically only be supported with some degree of confidence, not proven. The process of science is to incrementally accumulate evidence for and against hypothesized relationships in an ongoing pursuit of better models and explanations that best fit the empirical data. But hypotheses remain open to revision and rejection if that is where the evidence leads.

Disproving a hypothesis is definitive. Solid disconfirmatory evidence will falsify a hypothesis and require altering or discarding it based on the evidence.
However, confirming evidence is always open to revision. Other explanations may account for the same results, and additional or contradictory evidence may emerge over time.

We can never 100% prove the alternative hypothesis. Instead, we see if we can disprove, or reject the null hypothesis.

If we reject the null hypothesis, this doesn’t mean that our alternative hypothesis is correct but does support the alternative/experimental hypothesis.

Upon analysis of the results, an alternative hypothesis can be rejected or supported, but it can never be proven to be correct. We must avoid any reference to results proving a theory as this implies 100% certainty, and there is always a chance that evidence may exist which could refute a theory.

How to Write a Hypothesis

Identify variables . The researcher manipulates the independent variable and the dependent variable is the measured outcome.
Operationalized the variables being investigated . Operationalization of a hypothesis refers to the process of making the variables physically measurable or testable, e.g. if you are about to study aggression, you might count the number of punches given by participants.
Decide on a direction for your prediction . If there is evidence in the literature to support a specific effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable, write a directional (one-tailed) hypothesis. If there are limited or ambiguous findings in the literature regarding the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable, write a non-directional (two-tailed) hypothesis.
Make it Testable : Ensure your hypothesis can be tested through experimentation or observation. It should be possible to prove it false (principle of falsifiability).
Clear & concise language . A strong hypothesis is concise (typically one to two sentences long), and formulated using clear and straightforward language, ensuring it’s easily understood and testable.

Consider a hypothesis many teachers might subscribe to: students work better on Monday morning than on Friday afternoon (IV=Day, DV= Standard of work).

Now, if we decide to study this by giving the same group of students a lesson on a Monday morning and a Friday afternoon and then measuring their immediate recall of the material covered in each session, we would end up with the following:

The alternative hypothesis states that students will recall significantly more information on a Monday morning than on a Friday afternoon.
The null hypothesis states that there will be no significant difference in the amount recalled on a Monday morning compared to a Friday afternoon. Any difference will be due to chance or confounding factors.

More Examples

Memory : Participants exposed to classical music during study sessions will recall more items from a list than those who studied in silence.
Social Psychology : Individuals who frequently engage in social media use will report higher levels of perceived social isolation compared to those who use it infrequently.
Developmental Psychology : Children who engage in regular imaginative play have better problem-solving skills than those who don’t.
Clinical Psychology : Cognitive-behavioral therapy will be more effective in reducing symptoms of anxiety over a 6-month period compared to traditional talk therapy.
Cognitive Psychology : Individuals who multitask between various electronic devices will have shorter attention spans on focused tasks than those who single-task.
Health Psychology : Patients who practice mindfulness meditation will experience lower levels of chronic pain compared to those who don’t meditate.
Organizational Psychology : Employees in open-plan offices will report higher levels of stress than those in private offices.
Behavioral Psychology : Rats rewarded with food after pressing a lever will press it more frequently than rats who receive no reward.

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Home » What is a Hypothesis – Types, Examples and Writing Guide

What is a Hypothesis – Types, Examples and Writing Guide

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Definition:

Hypothesis is an educated guess or proposed explanation for a phenomenon, based on some initial observations or data. It is a tentative statement that can be tested and potentially proven or disproven through further investigation and experimentation.

Hypothesis is often used in scientific research to guide the design of experiments and the collection and analysis of data. It is an essential element of the scientific method, as it allows researchers to make predictions about the outcome of their experiments and to test those predictions to determine their accuracy.

Types of Hypothesis

Types of Hypothesis are as follows:

Research Hypothesis

A research hypothesis is a statement that predicts a relationship between variables. It is usually formulated as a specific statement that can be tested through research, and it is often used in scientific research to guide the design of experiments.

Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis is a statement that assumes there is no significant difference or relationship between variables. It is often used as a starting point for testing the research hypothesis, and if the results of the study reject the null hypothesis, it suggests that there is a significant difference or relationship between variables.

Alternative Hypothesis

An alternative hypothesis is a statement that assumes there is a significant difference or relationship between variables. It is often used as an alternative to the null hypothesis and is tested against the null hypothesis to determine which statement is more accurate.

Directional Hypothesis

A directional hypothesis is a statement that predicts the direction of the relationship between variables. For example, a researcher might predict that increasing the amount of exercise will result in a decrease in body weight.

Non-directional Hypothesis

A non-directional hypothesis is a statement that predicts the relationship between variables but does not specify the direction. For example, a researcher might predict that there is a relationship between the amount of exercise and body weight, but they do not specify whether increasing or decreasing exercise will affect body weight.

Statistical Hypothesis

A statistical hypothesis is a statement that assumes a particular statistical model or distribution for the data. It is often used in statistical analysis to test the significance of a particular result.

Composite Hypothesis

A composite hypothesis is a statement that assumes more than one condition or outcome. It can be divided into several sub-hypotheses, each of which represents a different possible outcome.

Empirical Hypothesis

An empirical hypothesis is a statement that is based on observed phenomena or data. It is often used in scientific research to develop theories or models that explain the observed phenomena.

Simple Hypothesis

A simple hypothesis is a statement that assumes only one outcome or condition. It is often used in scientific research to test a single variable or factor.

Complex Hypothesis

A complex hypothesis is a statement that assumes multiple outcomes or conditions. It is often used in scientific research to test the effects of multiple variables or factors on a particular outcome.

Applications of Hypothesis

Hypotheses are used in various fields to guide research and make predictions about the outcomes of experiments or observations. Here are some examples of how hypotheses are applied in different fields:

Science : In scientific research, hypotheses are used to test the validity of theories and models that explain natural phenomena. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a particular variable on a natural system, such as the effects of climate change on an ecosystem.
Medicine : In medical research, hypotheses are used to test the effectiveness of treatments and therapies for specific conditions. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a new drug on a particular disease.
Psychology : In psychology, hypotheses are used to test theories and models of human behavior and cognition. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a particular stimulus on the brain or behavior.
Sociology : In sociology, hypotheses are used to test theories and models of social phenomena, such as the effects of social structures or institutions on human behavior. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of income inequality on crime rates.
Business : In business research, hypotheses are used to test the validity of theories and models that explain business phenomena, such as consumer behavior or market trends. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a new marketing campaign on consumer buying behavior.
Engineering : In engineering, hypotheses are used to test the effectiveness of new technologies or designs. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the efficiency of a new solar panel design.

How to write a Hypothesis

Here are the steps to follow when writing a hypothesis:

Identify the Research Question

The first step is to identify the research question that you want to answer through your study. This question should be clear, specific, and focused. It should be something that can be investigated empirically and that has some relevance or significance in the field.

Conduct a Literature Review

Before writing your hypothesis, it’s essential to conduct a thorough literature review to understand what is already known about the topic. This will help you to identify the research gap and formulate a hypothesis that builds on existing knowledge.

Determine the Variables

The next step is to identify the variables involved in the research question. A variable is any characteristic or factor that can vary or change. There are two types of variables: independent and dependent. The independent variable is the one that is manipulated or changed by the researcher, while the dependent variable is the one that is measured or observed as a result of the independent variable.

Formulate the Hypothesis

Based on the research question and the variables involved, you can now formulate your hypothesis. A hypothesis should be a clear and concise statement that predicts the relationship between the variables. It should be testable through empirical research and based on existing theory or evidence.

Write the Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis is the opposite of the alternative hypothesis, which is the hypothesis that you are testing. The null hypothesis states that there is no significant difference or relationship between the variables. It is important to write the null hypothesis because it allows you to compare your results with what would be expected by chance.

Refine the Hypothesis

After formulating the hypothesis, it’s important to refine it and make it more precise. This may involve clarifying the variables, specifying the direction of the relationship, or making the hypothesis more testable.

Examples of Hypothesis

Here are a few examples of hypotheses in different fields:

Psychology : “Increased exposure to violent video games leads to increased aggressive behavior in adolescents.”
Biology : “Higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will lead to increased plant growth.”
Sociology : “Individuals who grow up in households with higher socioeconomic status will have higher levels of education and income as adults.”
Education : “Implementing a new teaching method will result in higher student achievement scores.”
Marketing : “Customers who receive a personalized email will be more likely to make a purchase than those who receive a generic email.”
Physics : “An increase in temperature will cause an increase in the volume of a gas, assuming all other variables remain constant.”
Medicine : “Consuming a diet high in saturated fats will increase the risk of developing heart disease.”

Purpose of Hypothesis

The purpose of a hypothesis is to provide a testable explanation for an observed phenomenon or a prediction of a future outcome based on existing knowledge or theories. A hypothesis is an essential part of the scientific method and helps to guide the research process by providing a clear focus for investigation. It enables scientists to design experiments or studies to gather evidence and data that can support or refute the proposed explanation or prediction.

The formulation of a hypothesis is based on existing knowledge, observations, and theories, and it should be specific, testable, and falsifiable. A specific hypothesis helps to define the research question, which is important in the research process as it guides the selection of an appropriate research design and methodology. Testability of the hypothesis means that it can be proven or disproven through empirical data collection and analysis. Falsifiability means that the hypothesis should be formulated in such a way that it can be proven wrong if it is incorrect.

In addition to guiding the research process, the testing of hypotheses can lead to new discoveries and advancements in scientific knowledge. When a hypothesis is supported by the data, it can be used to develop new theories or models to explain the observed phenomenon. When a hypothesis is not supported by the data, it can help to refine existing theories or prompt the development of new hypotheses to explain the phenomenon.

When to use Hypothesis

Here are some common situations in which hypotheses are used:

In scientific research , hypotheses are used to guide the design of experiments and to help researchers make predictions about the outcomes of those experiments.
In social science research , hypotheses are used to test theories about human behavior, social relationships, and other phenomena.
I n business , hypotheses can be used to guide decisions about marketing, product development, and other areas. For example, a hypothesis might be that a new product will sell well in a particular market, and this hypothesis can be tested through market research.

Characteristics of Hypothesis

Here are some common characteristics of a hypothesis:

Testable : A hypothesis must be able to be tested through observation or experimentation. This means that it must be possible to collect data that will either support or refute the hypothesis.
Falsifiable : A hypothesis must be able to be proven false if it is not supported by the data. If a hypothesis cannot be falsified, then it is not a scientific hypothesis.
Clear and concise : A hypothesis should be stated in a clear and concise manner so that it can be easily understood and tested.
Based on existing knowledge : A hypothesis should be based on existing knowledge and research in the field. It should not be based on personal beliefs or opinions.
Specific : A hypothesis should be specific in terms of the variables being tested and the predicted outcome. This will help to ensure that the research is focused and well-designed.
Tentative: A hypothesis is a tentative statement or assumption that requires further testing and evidence to be confirmed or refuted. It is not a final conclusion or assertion.
Relevant : A hypothesis should be relevant to the research question or problem being studied. It should address a gap in knowledge or provide a new perspective on the issue.

Advantages of Hypothesis

Hypotheses have several advantages in scientific research and experimentation:

Guides research: A hypothesis provides a clear and specific direction for research. It helps to focus the research question, select appropriate methods and variables, and interpret the results.
Predictive powe r: A hypothesis makes predictions about the outcome of research, which can be tested through experimentation. This allows researchers to evaluate the validity of the hypothesis and make new discoveries.
Facilitates communication: A hypothesis provides a common language and framework for scientists to communicate with one another about their research. This helps to facilitate the exchange of ideas and promotes collaboration.
Efficient use of resources: A hypothesis helps researchers to use their time, resources, and funding efficiently by directing them towards specific research questions and methods that are most likely to yield results.
Provides a basis for further research: A hypothesis that is supported by data provides a basis for further research and exploration. It can lead to new hypotheses, theories, and discoveries.
Increases objectivity: A hypothesis can help to increase objectivity in research by providing a clear and specific framework for testing and interpreting results. This can reduce bias and increase the reliability of research findings.

Limitations of Hypothesis

Some Limitations of the Hypothesis are as follows:

Limited to observable phenomena: Hypotheses are limited to observable phenomena and cannot account for unobservable or intangible factors. This means that some research questions may not be amenable to hypothesis testing.
May be inaccurate or incomplete: Hypotheses are based on existing knowledge and research, which may be incomplete or inaccurate. This can lead to flawed hypotheses and erroneous conclusions.
May be biased: Hypotheses may be biased by the researcher’s own beliefs, values, or assumptions. This can lead to selective interpretation of data and a lack of objectivity in research.
Cannot prove causation: A hypothesis can only show a correlation between variables, but it cannot prove causation. This requires further experimentation and analysis.
Limited to specific contexts: Hypotheses are limited to specific contexts and may not be generalizable to other situations or populations. This means that results may not be applicable in other contexts or may require further testing.
May be affected by chance : Hypotheses may be affected by chance or random variation, which can obscure or distort the true relationship between variables.

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Hypothesis Testing

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CO-6: Apply basic concepts of probability, random variation, and commonly used statistical probability distributions.

Learning Objectives

LO 6.26: Outline the logic and process of hypothesis testing.

LO 6.27: Explain what the p-value is and how it is used to draw conclusions.

Video: Hypothesis Testing (8:43)

Introduction

We are in the middle of the part of the course that has to do with inference for one variable.

So far, we talked about point estimation and learned how interval estimation enhances it by quantifying the magnitude of the estimation error (with a certain level of confidence) in the form of the margin of error. The result is the confidence interval — an interval that, with a certain confidence, we believe captures the unknown parameter.

We are now moving to the other kind of inference, hypothesis testing . We say that hypothesis testing is “the other kind” because, unlike the inferential methods we presented so far, where the goal was estimating the unknown parameter, the idea, logic and goal of hypothesis testing are quite different.

In the first two parts of this section we will discuss the idea behind hypothesis testing, explain how it works, and introduce new terminology that emerges in this form of inference. The final two parts will be more specific and will discuss hypothesis testing for the population proportion ( p ) and the population mean ( μ, mu).

If this is your first statistics course, you will need to spend considerable time on this topic as there are many new ideas. Many students find this process and its logic difficult to understand in the beginning.

In this section, we will use the hypothesis test for a population proportion to motivate our understanding of the process. We will conduct these tests manually. For all future hypothesis test procedures, including problems involving means, we will use software to obtain the results and focus on interpreting them in the context of our scenario.

General Idea and Logic of Hypothesis Testing

The purpose of this section is to gradually build your understanding about how statistical hypothesis testing works. We start by explaining the general logic behind the process of hypothesis testing. Once we are confident that you understand this logic, we will add some more details and terminology.

To start our discussion about the idea behind statistical hypothesis testing, consider the following example:

A case of suspected cheating on an exam is brought in front of the disciplinary committee at a certain university.

There are two opposing claims in this case:

The student’s claim: I did not cheat on the exam.
The instructor’s claim: The student did cheat on the exam.

Adhering to the principle “innocent until proven guilty,” the committee asks the instructor for evidence to support his claim. The instructor explains that the exam had two versions, and shows the committee members that on three separate exam questions, the student used in his solution numbers that were given in the other version of the exam.

The committee members all agree that it would be extremely unlikely to get evidence like that if the student’s claim of not cheating had been true. In other words, the committee members all agree that the instructor brought forward strong enough evidence to reject the student’s claim, and conclude that the student did cheat on the exam.

What does this example have to do with statistics?

While it is true that this story seems unrelated to statistics, it captures all the elements of hypothesis testing and the logic behind it. Before you read on to understand why, it would be useful to read the example again. Please do so now.

Statistical hypothesis testing is defined as:

Assessing evidence provided by the data against the null claim (the claim which is to be assumed true unless enough evidence exists to reject it).

Here is how the process of statistical hypothesis testing works:

We have two claims about what is going on in the population. Let’s call them claim 1 (this will be the null claim or hypothesis) and claim 2 (this will be the alternative) . Much like the story above, where the student’s claim is challenged by the instructor’s claim, the null claim 1 is challenged by the alternative claim 2. (For us, these claims are usually about the value of population parameter(s) or about the existence or nonexistence of a relationship between two variables in the population).
We choose a sample, collect relevant data and summarize them (this is similar to the instructor collecting evidence from the student’s exam). For statistical tests, this step will also involve checking any conditions or assumptions.
We figure out how likely it is to observe data like the data we obtained, if claim 1 is true. (Note that the wording “how likely …” implies that this step requires some kind of probability calculation). In the story, the committee members assessed how likely it is to observe evidence such as the instructor provided, had the student’s claim of not cheating been true.
If, after assuming claim 1 is true, we find that it would be extremely unlikely to observe data as strong as ours or stronger in favor of claim 2, then we have strong evidence against claim 1, and we reject it in favor of claim 2. Later we will see this corresponds to a small p-value.
If, after assuming claim 1 is true, we find that observing data as strong as ours or stronger in favor of claim 2 is NOT VERY UNLIKELY , then we do not have enough evidence against claim 1, and therefore we cannot reject it in favor of claim 2. Later we will see this corresponds to a p-value which is not small.

In our story, the committee decided that it would be extremely unlikely to find the evidence that the instructor provided had the student’s claim of not cheating been true. In other words, the members felt that it is extremely unlikely that it is just a coincidence (random chance) that the student used the numbers from the other version of the exam on three separate problems. The committee members therefore decided to reject the student’s claim and concluded that the student had, indeed, cheated on the exam. (Wouldn’t you conclude the same?)

Hopefully this example helped you understand the logic behind hypothesis testing.

Interactive Applet: Reasoning of a Statistical Test

To strengthen your understanding of the process of hypothesis testing and the logic behind it, let’s look at three statistical examples.

A recent study estimated that 20% of all college students in the United States smoke. The head of Health Services at Goodheart University (GU) suspects that the proportion of smokers may be lower at GU. In hopes of confirming her claim, the head of Health Services chooses a random sample of 400 Goodheart students, and finds that 70 of them are smokers.

Let’s analyze this example using the 4 steps outlined above:

claim 1: The proportion of smokers at Goodheart is 0.20.
claim 2: The proportion of smokers at Goodheart is less than 0.20.

Claim 1 basically says “nothing special goes on at Goodheart University; the proportion of smokers there is no different from the proportion in the entire country.” This claim is challenged by the head of Health Services, who suspects that the proportion of smokers at Goodheart is lower.

Choosing a sample and collecting data: A sample of n = 400 was chosen, and summarizing the data revealed that the sample proportion of smokers is p -hat = 70/400 = 0.175.While it is true that 0.175 is less than 0.20, it is not clear whether this is strong enough evidence against claim 1. We must account for sampling variation.
Assessment of evidence: In order to assess whether the data provide strong enough evidence against claim 1, we need to ask ourselves: How surprising is it to get a sample proportion as low as p -hat = 0.175 (or lower), assuming claim 1 is true? In other words, we need to find how likely it is that in a random sample of size n = 400 taken from a population where the proportion of smokers is p = 0.20 we’ll get a sample proportion as low as p -hat = 0.175 (or lower).It turns out that the probability that we’ll get a sample proportion as low as p -hat = 0.175 (or lower) in such a sample is roughly 0.106 (do not worry about how this was calculated at this point – however, if you think about it hopefully you can see that the key is the sampling distribution of p -hat).
Conclusion: Well, we found that if claim 1 were true there is a probability of 0.106 of observing data like that observed or more extreme. Now you have to decide …Do you think that a probability of 0.106 makes our data rare enough (surprising enough) under claim 1 so that the fact that we did observe it is enough evidence to reject claim 1? Or do you feel that a probability of 0.106 means that data like we observed are not very likely when claim 1 is true, but they are not unlikely enough to conclude that getting such data is sufficient evidence to reject claim 1. Basically, this is your decision. However, it would be nice to have some kind of guideline about what is generally considered surprising enough.

A certain prescription allergy medicine is supposed to contain an average of 245 parts per million (ppm) of a certain chemical. If the concentration is higher than 245 ppm, the drug will likely cause unpleasant side effects, and if the concentration is below 245 ppm, the drug may be ineffective. The manufacturer wants to check whether the mean concentration in a large shipment is the required 245 ppm or not. To this end, a random sample of 64 portions from the large shipment is tested, and it is found that the sample mean concentration is 250 ppm with a sample standard deviation of 12 ppm.

Claim 1: The mean concentration in the shipment is the required 245 ppm.
Claim 2: The mean concentration in the shipment is not the required 245 ppm.

Note that again, claim 1 basically says: “There is nothing unusual about this shipment, the mean concentration is the required 245 ppm.” This claim is challenged by the manufacturer, who wants to check whether that is, indeed, the case or not.

Choosing a sample and collecting data: A sample of n = 64 portions is chosen and after summarizing the data it is found that the sample mean concentration is x-bar = 250 and the sample standard deviation is s = 12.Is the fact that x-bar = 250 is different from 245 strong enough evidence to reject claim 1 and conclude that the mean concentration in the whole shipment is not the required 245? In other words, do the data provide strong enough evidence to reject claim 1?
Assessing the evidence: In order to assess whether the data provide strong enough evidence against claim 1, we need to ask ourselves the following question: If the mean concentration in the whole shipment were really the required 245 ppm (i.e., if claim 1 were true), how surprising would it be to observe a sample of 64 portions where the sample mean concentration is off by 5 ppm or more (as we did)? It turns out that it would be extremely unlikely to get such a result if the mean concentration were really the required 245. There is only a probability of 0.0007 (i.e., 7 in 10,000) of that happening. (Do not worry about how this was calculated at this point, but again, the key will be the sampling distribution.)
Making conclusions: Here, it is pretty clear that a sample like the one we observed or more extreme is VERY rare (or extremely unlikely) if the mean concentration in the shipment were really the required 245 ppm. The fact that we did observe such a sample therefore provides strong evidence against claim 1, so we reject it and conclude with very little doubt that the mean concentration in the shipment is not the required 245 ppm.

Do you think that you’re getting it? Let’s make sure, and look at another example.

Is there a relationship between gender and combined scores (Math + Verbal) on the SAT exam?

Following a report on the College Board website, which showed that in 2003, males scored generally higher than females on the SAT exam, an educational researcher wanted to check whether this was also the case in her school district. The researcher chose random samples of 150 males and 150 females from her school district, collected data on their SAT performance and found the following:

Again, let’s see how the process of hypothesis testing works for this example:

Claim 1: Performance on the SAT is not related to gender (males and females score the same).
Claim 2: Performance on the SAT is related to gender – males score higher.

Note that again, claim 1 basically says: “There is nothing going on between the variables SAT and gender.” Claim 2 represents what the researcher wants to check, or suspects might actually be the case.

Choosing a sample and collecting data: Data were collected and summarized as given above. Is the fact that the sample mean score of males (1,025) is higher than the sample mean score of females (1,010) by 15 points strong enough information to reject claim 1 and conclude that in this researcher’s school district, males score higher on the SAT than females?
Assessment of evidence: In order to assess whether the data provide strong enough evidence against claim 1, we need to ask ourselves: If SAT scores are in fact not related to gender (claim 1 is true), how likely is it to get data like the data we observed, in which the difference between the males’ average and females’ average score is as high as 15 points or higher? It turns out that the probability of observing such a sample result if SAT score is not related to gender is approximately 0.29 (Again, do not worry about how this was calculated at this point).
Conclusion: Here, we have an example where observing a sample like the one we observed or more extreme is definitely not surprising (roughly 30% chance) if claim 1 were true (i.e., if indeed there is no difference in SAT scores between males and females). We therefore conclude that our data does not provide enough evidence for rejecting claim 1.
“The data provide enough evidence to reject claim 1 and accept claim 2”; or
“The data do not provide enough evidence to reject claim 1.”

In particular, note that in the second type of conclusion we did not say: “ I accept claim 1 ,” but only “ I don’t have enough evidence to reject claim 1 .” We will come back to this issue later, but this is a good place to make you aware of this subtle difference.

Hopefully by now, you understand the logic behind the statistical hypothesis testing process. Here is a summary:

A flow chart describing the process. First, we state Claim 1 and Claim 2. Claim 1 says "nothing special is going on" and is challenged by claim 2. Second, we collect relevant data and summarize it. Third, we assess how surprising it woudl be to observe data like that observed if Claim 1 is true. Fourth, we draw conclusions in context.

Learn by Doing: Logic of Hypothesis Testing

Did I Get This?: Logic of Hypothesis Testing

Steps in Hypothesis Testing

Video: Steps in Hypothesis Testing (16:02)

Now that we understand the general idea of how statistical hypothesis testing works, let’s go back to each of the steps and delve slightly deeper, getting more details and learning some terminology.

Hypothesis Testing Step 1: State the Hypotheses

In all three examples, our aim is to decide between two opposing points of view, Claim 1 and Claim 2. In hypothesis testing, Claim 1 is called the null hypothesis (denoted “ Ho “), and Claim 2 plays the role of the alternative hypothesis (denoted “ Ha “). As we saw in the three examples, the null hypothesis suggests nothing special is going on; in other words, there is no change from the status quo, no difference from the traditional state of affairs, no relationship. In contrast, the alternative hypothesis disagrees with this, stating that something is going on, or there is a change from the status quo, or there is a difference from the traditional state of affairs. The alternative hypothesis, Ha, usually represents what we want to check or what we suspect is really going on.

Let’s go back to our three examples and apply the new notation:

In example 1:

Ho: The proportion of smokers at GU is 0.20.
Ha: The proportion of smokers at GU is less than 0.20.

In example 2:

Ho: The mean concentration in the shipment is the required 245 ppm.
Ha: The mean concentration in the shipment is not the required 245 ppm.

In example 3:

Ho: Performance on the SAT is not related to gender (males and females score the same).
Ha: Performance on the SAT is related to gender – males score higher.

Learn by Doing: State the Hypotheses

Did I Get This?: State the Hypotheses

Hypothesis Testing Step 2: Collect Data, Check Conditions and Summarize Data

This step is pretty obvious. This is what inference is all about. You look at sampled data in order to draw conclusions about the entire population. In the case of hypothesis testing, based on the data, you draw conclusions about whether or not there is enough evidence to reject Ho.

There is, however, one detail that we would like to add here. In this step we collect data and summarize it. Go back and look at the second step in our three examples. Note that in order to summarize the data we used simple sample statistics such as the sample proportion ( p -hat), sample mean (x-bar) and the sample standard deviation (s).

In practice, you go a step further and use these sample statistics to summarize the data with what’s called a test statistic . We are not going to go into any details right now, but we will discuss test statistics when we go through the specific tests.

This step will also involve checking any conditions or assumptions required to use the test.

Hypothesis Testing Step 3: Assess the Evidence

As we saw, this is the step where we calculate how likely is it to get data like that observed (or more extreme) when Ho is true. In a sense, this is the heart of the process, since we draw our conclusions based on this probability.

If this probability is very small (see example 2), then that means that it would be very surprising to get data like that observed (or more extreme) if Ho were true. The fact that we did observe such data is therefore evidence against Ho, and we should reject it.
On the other hand, if this probability is not very small (see example 3) this means that observing data like that observed (or more extreme) is not very surprising if Ho were true. The fact that we observed such data does not provide evidence against Ho. This crucial probability, therefore, has a special name. It is called the p-value of the test.

In our three examples, the p-values were given to you (and you were reassured that you didn’t need to worry about how these were derived yet):

Example 1: p-value = 0.106
Example 2: p-value = 0.0007
Example 3: p-value = 0.29

Obviously, the smaller the p-value, the more surprising it is to get data like ours (or more extreme) when Ho is true, and therefore, the stronger the evidence the data provide against Ho.

Looking at the three p-values of our three examples, we see that the data that we observed in example 2 provide the strongest evidence against the null hypothesis, followed by example 1, while the data in example 3 provides the least evidence against Ho.

Right now we will not go into specific details about p-value calculations, but just mention that since the p-value is the probability of getting data like those observed (or more extreme) when Ho is true, it would make sense that the calculation of the p-value will be based on the data summary, which, as we mentioned, is the test statistic. Indeed, this is the case. In practice, we will mostly use software to provide the p-value for us.

Hypothesis Testing Step 4: Making Conclusions

Since our statistical conclusion is based on how small the p-value is, or in other words, how surprising our data are when Ho is true, it would be nice to have some kind of guideline or cutoff that will help determine how small the p-value must be, or how “rare” (unlikely) our data must be when Ho is true, for us to conclude that we have enough evidence to reject Ho.

This cutoff exists, and because it is so important, it has a special name. It is called the significance level of the test and is usually denoted by the Greek letter α (alpha). The most commonly used significance level is α (alpha) = 0.05 (or 5%). This means that:

if the p-value < α (alpha) (usually 0.05), then the data we obtained is considered to be “rare (or surprising) enough” under the assumption that Ho is true, and we say that the data provide statistically significant evidence against Ho, so we reject Ho and thus accept Ha.
if the p-value > α (alpha)(usually 0.05), then our data are not considered to be “surprising enough” under the assumption that Ho is true, and we say that our data do not provide enough evidence to reject Ho (or, equivalently, that the data do not provide enough evidence to accept Ha).

Now that we have a cutoff to use, here are the appropriate conclusions for each of our examples based upon the p-values we were given.

In Example 1:

Using our cutoff of 0.05, we fail to reject Ho.
Conclusion : There IS NOT enough evidence that the proportion of smokers at GU is less than 0.20
Still we should consider: Does the evidence seen in the data provide any practical evidence towards our alternative hypothesis?

In Example 2:

Using our cutoff of 0.05, we reject Ho.
Conclusion : There IS enough evidence that the mean concentration in the shipment is not the required 245 ppm.

In Example 3:

Conclusion : There IS NOT enough evidence that males score higher on average than females on the SAT.

Notice that all of the above conclusions are written in terms of the alternative hypothesis and are given in the context of the situation. In no situation have we claimed the null hypothesis is true. Be very careful of this and other issues discussed in the following comments.

Although the significance level provides a good guideline for drawing our conclusions, it should not be treated as an incontrovertible truth. There is a lot of room for personal interpretation. What if your p-value is 0.052? You might want to stick to the rules and say “0.052 > 0.05 and therefore I don’t have enough evidence to reject Ho”, but you might decide that 0.052 is small enough for you to believe that Ho should be rejected. It should be noted that scientific journals do consider 0.05 to be the cutoff point for which any p-value below the cutoff indicates enough evidence against Ho, and any p-value above it, or even equal to it , indicates there is not enough evidence against Ho. Although a p-value between 0.05 and 0.10 is often reported as marginally statistically significant.
It is important to draw your conclusions in context . It is never enough to say: “p-value = …, and therefore I have enough evidence to reject Ho at the 0.05 significance level.” You should always word your conclusion in terms of the data. Although we will use the terminology of “rejecting Ho” or “failing to reject Ho” – this is mostly due to the fact that we are instructing you in these concepts. In practice, this language is rarely used. We also suggest writing your conclusion in terms of the alternative hypothesis.Is there or is there not enough evidence that the alternative hypothesis is true?
Let’s go back to the issue of the nature of the two types of conclusions that I can make.
Either I reject Ho (when the p-value is smaller than the significance level)
or I cannot reject Ho (when the p-value is larger than the significance level).

As we mentioned earlier, note that the second conclusion does not imply that I accept Ho, but just that I don’t have enough evidence to reject it. Saying (by mistake) “I don’t have enough evidence to reject Ho so I accept it” indicates that the data provide evidence that Ho is true, which is not necessarily the case . Consider the following slightly artificial yet effective example:

An employer claims to subscribe to an “equal opportunity” policy, not hiring men any more often than women for managerial positions. Is this credible? You’re not sure, so you want to test the following two hypotheses:

Ho: The proportion of male managers hired is 0.5
Ha: The proportion of male managers hired is more than 0.5

Data: You choose at random three of the new managers who were hired in the last 5 years and find that all 3 are men.

Assessing Evidence: If the proportion of male managers hired is really 0.5 (Ho is true), then the probability that the random selection of three managers will yield three males is therefore 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.125. This is the p-value (using the multiplication rule for independent events).

Conclusion: Using 0.05 as the significance level, you conclude that since the p-value = 0.125 > 0.05, the fact that the three randomly selected managers were all males is not enough evidence to reject the employer’s claim of subscribing to an equal opportunity policy (Ho).

However, the data (all three selected are males) definitely does NOT provide evidence to accept the employer’s claim (Ho).

Learn By Doing: Using p-values

Did I Get This?: Using p-values

Comment about wording: Another common wording in scientific journals is:

“The results are statistically significant” – when the p-value < α (alpha).
“The results are not statistically significant” – when the p-value > α (alpha).

Often you will see significance levels reported with additional description to indicate the degree of statistical significance. A general guideline (although not required in our course) is:

If 0.01 ≤ p-value < 0.05, then the results are (statistically) significant .
If 0.001 ≤ p-value < 0.01, then the results are highly statistically significant .
If p-value < 0.001, then the results are very highly statistically significant .
If p-value > 0.05, then the results are not statistically significant (NS).
If 0.05 ≤ p-value < 0.10, then the results are marginally statistically significant .

Let’s summarize

We learned quite a lot about hypothesis testing. We learned the logic behind it, what the key elements are, and what types of conclusions we can and cannot draw in hypothesis testing. Here is a quick recap:

Video: Hypothesis Testing Overview (2:20)

Here are a few more activities if you need some additional practice.

Did I Get This?: Hypothesis Testing Overview

Notice that the p-value is an example of a conditional probability . We calculate the probability of obtaining results like those of our data (or more extreme) GIVEN the null hypothesis is true. We could write P(Obtaining results like ours or more extreme | Ho is True).
We could write P(Obtaining a test statistic as or more extreme than ours | Ho is True).
In this case we are asking “Assuming the null hypothesis is true, how rare is it to observe something as or more extreme than what I have found in my data?”
If after assuming the null hypothesis is true, what we have found in our data is extremely rare (small p-value), this provides evidence to reject our assumption that Ho is true in favor of Ha.
The p-value can also be thought of as the probability, assuming the null hypothesis is true, that the result we have seen is solely due to random error (or random chance). We have already seen that statistics from samples collected from a population vary. There is random error or random chance involved when we sample from populations.

In this setting, if the p-value is very small, this implies, assuming the null hypothesis is true, that it is extremely unlikely that the results we have obtained would have happened due to random error alone, and thus our assumption (Ho) is rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis (Ha).

It is EXTREMELY important that you find a definition of the p-value which makes sense to you. New students often need to contemplate this idea repeatedly through a variety of examples and explanations before becoming comfortable with this idea. It is one of the two most important concepts in statistics (the other being confidence intervals).
We infer that the alternative hypothesis is true ONLY by rejecting the null hypothesis.
A statistically significant result is one that has a very low probability of occurring if the null hypothesis is true.
Results which are statistically significant may or may not have practical significance and vice versa.

Error and Power

LO 6.28: Define a Type I and Type II error in general and in the context of specific scenarios.

LO 6.29: Explain the concept of the power of a statistical test including the relationship between power, sample size, and effect size.

Video: Errors and Power (12:03)

Type I and Type II Errors in Hypothesis Tests

We have not yet discussed the fact that we are not guaranteed to make the correct decision by this process of hypothesis testing. Maybe you are beginning to see that there is always some level of uncertainty in statistics.

Let’s think about what we know already and define the possible errors we can make in hypothesis testing. When we conduct a hypothesis test, we choose one of two possible conclusions based upon our data.

If the p-value is smaller than your pre-specified significance level (α, alpha), you reject the null hypothesis and either

You have made the correct decision since the null hypothesis is false
You have made an error ( Type I ) and rejected Ho when in fact Ho is true (your data happened to be a RARE EVENT under Ho)

If the p-value is greater than (or equal to) your chosen significance level (α, alpha), you fail to reject the null hypothesis and either

You have made the correct decision since the null hypothesis is true
You have made an error ( Type II ) and failed to reject Ho when in fact Ho is false (the alternative hypothesis, Ha, is true)

The following summarizes the four possible results which can be obtained from a hypothesis test. Notice the rows represent the decision made in the hypothesis test and the columns represent the (usually unknown) truth in reality.

Although the truth is unknown in practice – or we would not be conducting the test – we know it must be the case that either the null hypothesis is true or the null hypothesis is false. It is also the case that either decision we make in a hypothesis test can result in an incorrect conclusion!

A TYPE I Error occurs when we Reject Ho when, in fact, Ho is True. In this case, we mistakenly reject a true null hypothesis.

P(TYPE I Error) = P(Reject Ho | Ho is True) = α = alpha = Significance Level

A TYPE II Error occurs when we fail to Reject Ho when, in fact, Ho is False. In this case we fail to reject a false null hypothesis.

P(TYPE II Error) = P(Fail to Reject Ho | Ho is False) = β = beta

When our significance level is 5%, we are saying that we will allow ourselves to make a Type I error less than 5% of the time. In the long run, if we repeat the process, 5% of the time we will find a p-value < 0.05 when in fact the null hypothesis was true.

In this case, our data represent a rare occurrence which is unlikely to happen but is still possible. For example, suppose we toss a coin 10 times and obtain 10 heads, this is unlikely for a fair coin but not impossible. We might conclude the coin is unfair when in fact we simply saw a very rare event for this fair coin.

Our testing procedure CONTROLS for the Type I error when we set a pre-determined value for the significance level.

Notice that these probabilities are conditional probabilities. This is one more reason why conditional probability is an important concept in statistics.

Unfortunately, calculating the probability of a Type II error requires us to know the truth about the population. In practice we can only calculate this probability using a series of “what if” calculations which depend upon the type of problem.

Comment: As you initially read through the examples below, focus on the broad concepts instead of the small details. It is not important to understand how to calculate these values yourself at this point.

Try to understand the pictures we present. Which pictures represent an assumed null hypothesis and which represent an alternative?
It may be useful to come back to this page (and the activities here) after you have reviewed the rest of the section on hypothesis testing and have worked a few problems yourself.

Interactive Applet: Statistical Significance

Here are two examples of using an older version of this applet. It looks slightly different but the same settings and options are available in the version above.

In both cases we will consider IQ scores.

Our null hypothesis is that the true mean is 100. Assume the standard deviation is 16 and we will specify a significance level of 5%.

In this example we will specify that the true mean is indeed 100 so that the null hypothesis is true. Most of the time (95%), when we generate a sample, we should fail to reject the null hypothesis since the null hypothesis is indeed true.

Here is one sample that results in a correct decision:

In the sample above, we obtain an x-bar of 105, which is drawn on the distribution which assumes μ (mu) = 100 (the null hypothesis is true). Notice the sample is shown as blue dots along the x-axis and the shaded region shows for which values of x-bar we would reject the null hypothesis. In other words, we would reject Ho whenever the x-bar falls in the shaded region.

Enter the same values and generate samples until you obtain a Type I error (you falsely reject the null hypothesis). You should see something like this:

If you were to generate 100 samples, you should have around 5% where you rejected Ho. These would be samples which would result in a Type I error.

The previous example illustrates a correct decision and a Type I error when the null hypothesis is true. The next example illustrates a correct decision and Type II error when the null hypothesis is false. In this case, we must specify the true population mean.

Let’s suppose we are sampling from an honors program and that the true mean IQ for this population is 110. We do not know the probability of a Type II error without more detailed calculations.

Let’s start with a sample which results in a correct decision.

In the sample above, we obtain an x-bar of 111, which is drawn on the distribution which assumes μ (mu) = 100 (the null hypothesis is true).

Enter the same values and generate samples until you obtain a Type II error (you fail to reject the null hypothesis). You should see something like this:

You should notice that in this case (when Ho is false), it is easier to obtain an incorrect decision (a Type II error) than it was in the case where Ho is true. If you generate 100 samples, you can approximate the probability of a Type II error.

We can find the probability of a Type II error by visualizing both the assumed distribution and the true distribution together. The image below is adapted from an applet we will use when we discuss the power of a statistical test.

There is a 37.4% chance that, in the long run, we will make a Type II error and fail to reject the null hypothesis when in fact the true mean IQ is 110 in the population from which we sample our 10 individuals.

Can you visualize what will happen if the true population mean is really 115 or 108? When will the Type II error increase? When will it decrease? We will look at this idea again when we discuss the concept of power in hypothesis tests.

It is important to note that there is a trade-off between the probability of a Type I and a Type II error. If we decrease the probability of one of these errors, the probability of the other will increase! The practical result of this is that if we require stronger evidence to reject the null hypothesis (smaller significance level = probability of a Type I error), we will increase the chance that we will be unable to reject the null hypothesis when in fact Ho is false (increases the probability of a Type II error).
When α (alpha) = 0.05 we obtained a Type II error probability of 0.374 = β = beta

When α (alpha) = 0.01 (smaller than before) we obtain a Type II error probability of 0.644 = β = beta (larger than before)

As the blue line in the picture moves farther right, the significance level (α, alpha) is decreasing and the Type II error probability is increasing.
As the blue line in the picture moves farther left, the significance level (α, alpha) is increasing and the Type II error probability is decreasing

Let’s return to our very first example and define these two errors in context.

Ho = The student’s claim: I did not cheat on the exam.
Ha = The instructor’s claim: The student did cheat on the exam.

Adhering to the principle “innocent until proven guilty,” the committee asks the instructor for evidence to support his claim.

There are four possible outcomes of this process. There are two possible correct decisions:

The student did cheat on the exam and the instructor brings enough evidence to reject Ho and conclude the student did cheat on the exam. This is a CORRECT decision!
The student did not cheat on the exam and the instructor fails to provide enough evidence that the student did cheat on the exam. This is a CORRECT decision!

Both the correct decisions and the possible errors are fairly easy to understand but with the errors, you must be careful to identify and define the two types correctly.

TYPE I Error: Reject Ho when Ho is True

The student did not cheat on the exam but the instructor brings enough evidence to reject Ho and conclude the student cheated on the exam. This is a Type I Error.

TYPE II Error: Fail to Reject Ho when Ho is False

The student did cheat on the exam but the instructor fails to provide enough evidence that the student cheated on the exam. This is a Type II Error.

In most situations, including this one, it is more “acceptable” to have a Type II error than a Type I error. Although allowing a student who cheats to go unpunished might be considered a very bad problem, punishing a student for something he or she did not do is usually considered to be a more severe error. This is one reason we control for our Type I error in the process of hypothesis testing.

Did I Get This?: Type I and Type II Errors (in context)

The probabilities of Type I and Type II errors are closely related to the concepts of sensitivity and specificity that we discussed previously. Consider the following hypotheses:

Ho: The individual does not have diabetes (status quo, nothing special happening)

Ha: The individual does have diabetes (something is going on here)

In this setting:

When someone tests positive for diabetes we would reject the null hypothesis and conclude the person has diabetes (we may or may not be correct!).

When someone tests negative for diabetes we would fail to reject the null hypothesis so that we fail to conclude the person has diabetes (we may or may not be correct!)

Let’s take it one step further:

Sensitivity = P(Test + | Have Disease) which in this setting equals P(Reject Ho | Ho is False) = 1 – P(Fail to Reject Ho | Ho is False) = 1 – β = 1 – beta

Specificity = P(Test – | No Disease) which in this setting equals P(Fail to Reject Ho | Ho is True) = 1 – P(Reject Ho | Ho is True) = 1 – α = 1 – alpha

Notice that sensitivity and specificity relate to the probability of making a correct decision whereas α (alpha) and β (beta) relate to the probability of making an incorrect decision.

Usually α (alpha) = 0.05 so that the specificity listed above is 0.95 or 95%.

Next, we will see that the sensitivity listed above is the power of the hypothesis test!

Reasons for a Type I Error in Practice

Assuming that you have obtained a quality sample:

The reason for a Type I error is random chance.
When a Type I error occurs, our observed data represented a rare event which indicated evidence in favor of the alternative hypothesis even though the null hypothesis was actually true.

Reasons for a Type II Error in Practice

Again, assuming that you have obtained a quality sample, now we have a few possibilities depending upon the true difference that exists.

The sample size is too small to detect an important difference. This is the worst case, you should have obtained a larger sample. In this situation, you may notice that the effect seen in the sample seems PRACTICALLY significant and yet the p-value is not small enough to reject the null hypothesis.
The sample size is reasonable for the important difference but the true difference (which might be somewhat meaningful or interesting) is smaller than your test was capable of detecting. This is tolerable as you were not interested in being able to detect this difference when you began your study. In this situation, you may notice that the effect seen in the sample seems to have some potential for practical significance.
The sample size is more than adequate, the difference that was not detected is meaningless in practice. This is not a problem at all and is in effect a “correct decision” since the difference you did not detect would have no practical meaning.
Note: We will discuss the idea of practical significance later in more detail.

Power of a Hypothesis Test

It is often the case that we truly wish to prove the alternative hypothesis. It is reasonable that we would be interested in the probability of correctly rejecting the null hypothesis. In other words, the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis, when in fact the null hypothesis is false. This can also be thought of as the probability of being able to detect a (pre-specified) difference of interest to the researcher.

Let’s begin with a realistic example of how power can be described in a study.

In a clinical trial to study two medications for weight loss, we have an 80% chance to detect a difference in the weight loss between the two medications of 10 pounds. In other words, the power of the hypothesis test we will conduct is 80%.

In other words, if one medication comes from a population with an average weight loss of 25 pounds and the other comes from a population with an average weight loss of 15 pounds, we will have an 80% chance to detect that difference using the sample we have in our trial.

If we were to repeat this trial many times, 80% of the time we will be able to reject the null hypothesis (that there is no difference between the medications) and 20% of the time we will fail to reject the null hypothesis (and make a Type II error!).

The difference of 10 pounds in the previous example, is often called the effect size . The measure of the effect differs depending on the particular test you are conducting but is always some measure related to the true effect in the population. In this example, it is the difference between two population means.

Recall the definition of a Type II error:

Notice that P(Reject Ho | Ho is False) = 1 – P(Fail to Reject Ho | Ho is False) = 1 – β = 1- beta.

The POWER of a hypothesis test is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is false . This can also be stated as the probability of correctly rejecting the null hypothesis .

POWER = P(Reject Ho | Ho is False) = 1 – β = 1 – beta

Power is the test’s ability to correctly reject the null hypothesis. A test with high power has a good chance of being able to detect the difference of interest to us, if it exists .

As we mentioned on the bottom of the previous page, this can be thought of as the sensitivity of the hypothesis test if you imagine Ho = No disease and Ha = Disease.

Factors Affecting the Power of a Hypothesis Test

The power of a hypothesis test is affected by numerous quantities (similar to the margin of error in a confidence interval).

Assume that the null hypothesis is false for a given hypothesis test. All else being equal, we have the following:

Larger samples result in a greater chance to reject the null hypothesis which means an increase in the power of the hypothesis test.
If the effect size is larger, it will become easier for us to detect. This results in a greater chance to reject the null hypothesis which means an increase in the power of the hypothesis test. The effect size varies for each test and is usually closely related to the difference between the hypothesized value and the true value of the parameter under study.
From the relationship between the probability of a Type I and a Type II error (as α (alpha) decreases, β (beta) increases), we can see that as α (alpha) decreases, Power = 1 – β = 1 – beta also decreases.
There are other mathematical ways to change the power of a hypothesis test, such as changing the population standard deviation; however, these are not quantities that we can usually control so we will not discuss them here.

In practice, we specify a significance level and a desired power to detect a difference which will have practical meaning to us and this determines the sample size required for the experiment or study.

For most grants involving statistical analysis, power calculations must be completed to illustrate that the study will have a reasonable chance to detect an important effect. Otherwise, the money spent on the study could be wasted. The goal is usually to have a power close to 80%.

For example, if there is only a 5% chance to detect an important difference between two treatments in a clinical trial, this would result in a waste of time, effort, and money on the study since, when the alternative hypothesis is true, the chance a treatment effect can be found is very small.

In order to calculate the power of a hypothesis test, we must specify the “truth.” As we mentioned previously when discussing Type II errors, in practice we can only calculate this probability using a series of “what if” calculations which depend upon the type of problem.

The following activity involves working with an interactive applet to study power more carefully.

Learn by Doing: Power of Hypothesis Tests

The following reading is an excellent discussion about Type I and Type II errors.

(Optional) Outside Reading: A Good Discussion of Power (≈ 2500 words)

We will not be asking you to perform power calculations manually. You may be asked to use online calculators and applets. Most statistical software packages offer some ability to complete power calculations. There are also many online calculators for power and sample size on the internet, for example, Russ Lenth’s power and sample-size page .

Proportions (Introduction & Step 1)

CO-4: Distinguish among different measurement scales, choose the appropriate descriptive and inferential statistical methods based on these distinctions, and interpret the results.

LO 4.33: In a given context, distinguish between situations involving a population proportion and a population mean and specify the correct null and alternative hypothesis for the scenario.

LO 4.34: Carry out a complete hypothesis test for a population proportion by hand.

Video: Proportions (Introduction & Step 1) (7:18)

Now that we understand the process of hypothesis testing and the logic behind it, we are ready to start learning about specific statistical tests (also known as significance tests).

The first test we are going to learn is the test about the population proportion (p).

This test is widely known as the “z-test for the population proportion (p).”

We will understand later where the “z-test” part is coming from.

This will be the only type of problem you will complete entirely “by-hand” in this course. Our goal is to use this example to give you the tools you need to understand how this process works. After working a few problems, you should review the earlier material again. You will likely need to review the terminology and concepts a few times before you fully understand the process.

In reality, you will often be conducting more complex statistical tests and allowing software to provide the p-value. In these settings it will be important to know what test to apply for a given situation and to be able to explain the results in context.

Review: Types of Variables

When we conduct a test about a population proportion, we are working with a categorical variable. Later in the course, after we have learned a variety of hypothesis tests, we will need to be able to identify which test is appropriate for which situation. Identifying the variable as categorical or quantitative is an important component of choosing an appropriate hypothesis test.

Learn by Doing: Review Types of Variables

One Sample Z-Test for a Population Proportion

In this part of our discussion on hypothesis testing, we will go into details that we did not go into before. More specifically, we will use this test to introduce the idea of a test statistic , and details about how p-values are calculated .

Let’s start by introducing the three examples, which will be the leading examples in our discussion. Each example is followed by a figure illustrating the information provided, as well as the question of interest.

A machine is known to produce 20% defective products, and is therefore sent for repair. After the machine is repaired, 400 products produced by the machine are chosen at random and 64 of them are found to be defective. Do the data provide enough evidence that the proportion of defective products produced by the machine (p) has been reduced as a result of the repair?

The following figure displays the information, as well as the question of interest:

The question of interest helps us formulate the null and alternative hypotheses in terms of p, the proportion of defective products produced by the machine following the repair:

Ho: p = 0.20 (No change; the repair did not help).
Ha: p < 0.20 (The repair was effective at reducing the proportion of defective parts).

There are rumors that students at a certain liberal arts college are more inclined to use drugs than U.S. college students in general. Suppose that in a simple random sample of 100 students from the college, 19 admitted to marijuana use. Do the data provide enough evidence to conclude that the proportion of marijuana users among the students in the college (p) is higher than the national proportion, which is 0.157? (This number is reported by the Harvard School of Public Health.)

Again, the following figure displays the information as well as the question of interest:

As before, we can formulate the null and alternative hypotheses in terms of p, the proportion of students in the college who use marijuana:

Ho: p = 0.157 (same as among all college students in the country).
Ha: p > 0.157 (higher than the national figure).

Polls on certain topics are conducted routinely in order to monitor changes in the public’s opinions over time. One such topic is the death penalty. In 2003 a poll estimated that 64% of U.S. adults support the death penalty for a person convicted of murder. In a more recent poll, 675 out of 1,000 U.S. adults chosen at random were in favor of the death penalty for convicted murderers. Do the results of this poll provide evidence that the proportion of U.S. adults who support the death penalty for convicted murderers (p) changed between 2003 and the later poll?

Here is a figure that displays the information, as well as the question of interest:

Again, we can formulate the null and alternative hypotheses in term of p, the proportion of U.S. adults who support the death penalty for convicted murderers.

Ho: p = 0.64 (No change from 2003).
Ha: p ≠ 0.64 (Some change since 2003).

Learn by Doing: Proportions (Overview)

Did I Get This?: Proportions ( Overview )

Recall that there are basically 4 steps in the process of hypothesis testing:

STEP 1: State the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses, Ho and Ha.
STEP 2: Obtain a random sample, collect relevant data, and check whether the data meet the conditions under which the test can be used . If the conditions are met, summarize the data using a test statistic.
STEP 3: Find the p-value of the test.
STEP 4: Based on the p-value, decide whether or not the results are statistically significant and draw your conclusions in context.
Note: In practice, we should always consider the practical significance of the results as well as the statistical significance.

We are now going to go through these steps as they apply to the hypothesis testing for the population proportion p. It should be noted that even though the details will be specific to this particular test, some of the ideas that we will add apply to hypothesis testing in general.

Step 1. Stating the Hypotheses

Here again are the three set of hypotheses that are being tested in each of our three examples:

Has the proportion of defective products been reduced as a result of the repair?

Is the proportion of marijuana users in the college higher than the national figure?

Did the proportion of U.S. adults who support the death penalty change between 2003 and a later poll?

The null hypothesis always takes the form:

Ho: p = some value

and the alternative hypothesis takes one of the following three forms:

Ha: p < that value (like in example 1) or
Ha: p > that value (like in example 2) or
Ha: p ≠ that value (like in example 3).

Note that it was quite clear from the context which form of the alternative hypothesis would be appropriate. The value that is specified in the null hypothesis is called the null value , and is generally denoted by p 0 . We can say, therefore, that in general the null hypothesis about the population proportion (p) would take the form:

Ho: p = p 0

We write Ho: p = p 0 to say that we are making the hypothesis that the population proportion has the value of p 0 . In other words, p is the unknown population proportion and p 0 is the number we think p might be for the given situation.

The alternative hypothesis takes one of the following three forms (depending on the context):

Ha: p < p 0 (one-sided)

Ha: p > p 0 (one-sided)

Ha: p ≠ p 0 (two-sided)

The first two possible forms of the alternatives (where the = sign in Ho is challenged by < or >) are called one-sided alternatives , and the third form of alternative (where the = sign in Ho is challenged by ≠) is called a two-sided alternative. To understand the intuition behind these names let’s go back to our examples.

Example 3 (death penalty) is a case where we have a two-sided alternative:

In this case, in order to reject Ho and accept Ha we will need to get a sample proportion of death penalty supporters which is very different from 0.64 in either direction, either much larger or much smaller than 0.64.

In example 2 (marijuana use) we have a one-sided alternative:

Here, in order to reject Ho and accept Ha we will need to get a sample proportion of marijuana users which is much higher than 0.157.

Similarly, in example 1 (defective products), where we are testing:

in order to reject Ho and accept Ha, we will need to get a sample proportion of defective products which is much smaller than 0.20.

Learn by Doing: State Hypotheses (Proportions)

Did I Get This?: State Hypotheses (Proportions)

Proportions (Step 2)

Video: Proportions (Step 2) (12:38)

Step 2. Collect Data, Check Conditions, and Summarize Data

After the hypotheses have been stated, the next step is to obtain a sample (on which the inference will be based), collect relevant data , and summarize them.

It is extremely important that our sample is representative of the population about which we want to draw conclusions. This is ensured when the sample is chosen at random. Beyond the practical issue of ensuring representativeness, choosing a random sample has theoretical importance that we will mention later.

In the case of hypothesis testing for the population proportion (p), we will collect data on the relevant categorical variable from the individuals in the sample and start by calculating the sample proportion p-hat (the natural quantity to calculate when the parameter of interest is p).

Let’s go back to our three examples and add this step to our figures.

As we mentioned earlier without going into details, when we summarize the data in hypothesis testing, we go a step beyond calculating the sample statistic and summarize the data with a test statistic . Every test has a test statistic, which to some degree captures the essence of the test. In fact, the p-value, which so far we have looked upon as “the king” (in the sense that everything is determined by it), is actually determined by (or derived from) the test statistic. We will now introduce the test statistic.

The test statistic is a measure of how far the sample proportion p-hat is from the null value p 0 , the value that the null hypothesis claims is the value of p. In other words, since p-hat is what the data estimates p to be, the test statistic can be viewed as a measure of the “distance” between what the data tells us about p and what the null hypothesis claims p to be.

Let’s use our examples to understand this:

The parameter of interest is p, the proportion of defective products following the repair.

The data estimate p to be p-hat = 0.16

The null hypothesis claims that p = 0.20

The data are therefore 0.04 (or 4 percentage points) below the null hypothesis value.

It is hard to evaluate whether this difference of 4% in defective products is enough evidence to say that the repair was effective at reducing the proportion of defective products, but clearly, the larger the difference, the more evidence it is against the null hypothesis. So if, for example, our sample proportion of defective products had been, say, 0.10 instead of 0.16, then I think you would all agree that cutting the proportion of defective products in half (from 20% to 10%) would be extremely strong evidence that the repair was effective at reducing the proportion of defective products.

The parameter of interest is p, the proportion of students in a college who use marijuana.

The data estimate p to be p-hat = 0.19

The null hypothesis claims that p = 0.157

The data are therefore 0.033 (or 3.3. percentage points) above the null hypothesis value.

The parameter of interest is p, the proportion of U.S. adults who support the death penalty for convicted murderers.

The data estimate p to be p-hat = 0.675

The null hypothesis claims that p = 0.64

There is a difference of 0.035 (or 3.5. percentage points) between the data and the null hypothesis value.

The problem with looking only at the difference between the sample proportion, p-hat, and the null value, p 0 is that we have not taken into account the variability of our estimator p-hat which, as we know from our study of sampling distributions, depends on the sample size.

For this reason, the test statistic cannot simply be the difference between p-hat and p 0 , but must be some form of that formula that accounts for the sample size. In other words, we need to somehow standardize the difference so that comparison between different situations will be possible. We are very close to revealing the test statistic, but before we construct it, let’s be reminded of the following two facts from probability:

Fact 1: When we take a random sample of size n from a population with population proportion p, then

Fact 2: The z-score of any normal value (a value that comes from a normal distribution) is calculated by finding the difference between the value and the mean and then dividing that difference by the standard deviation (of the normal distribution associated with the value). The z-score represents how many standard deviations below or above the mean the value is.

Thus, our test statistic should be a measure of how far the sample proportion p-hat is from the null value p 0 relative to the variation of p-hat (as measured by the standard error of p-hat).

Recall that the standard error is the standard deviation of the sampling distribution for a given statistic. For p-hat, we know the following:

To find the p-value, we will need to determine how surprising our value is assuming the null hypothesis is true. We already have the tools needed for this process from our study of sampling distributions as represented in the table above.

If we assume the null hypothesis is true, we can specify that the center of the distribution of all possible values of p-hat from samples of size 400 would be 0.20 (our null value).

We can calculate the standard error, assuming p = 0.20 as

$\sqrt{\dfrac{p_{0}\left(1-p_{0}\right)}{n}}=\sqrt{\dfrac{0.2(1-0.2)}{400}}=0.02$

The following picture represents the sampling distribution of all possible values of p-hat of samples of size 400, assuming the true proportion p is 0.20 and our other requirements for the sampling distribution to be normal are met (we will review these during the next step).

A normal curve representing samping distribution of p-hat assuming that p=p_0. Marked on the horizontal axis is p_0 and a particular value of p-hat. z is the difference between p-hat and p_0 measured in standard deviations (with the sign of z indicating whether p-hat is below or above p_0)

In order to calculate probabilities for the picture above, we would need to find the z-score associated with our result.

This z-score is the test statistic ! In this example, the numerator of our z-score is the difference between p-hat (0.16) and null value (0.20) which we found earlier to be -0.04. The denominator of our z-score is the standard error calculated above (0.02) and thus quickly we find the z-score, our test statistic, to be -2.

The sample proportion based upon this data is 2 standard errors below the null value.

Hopefully you now understand more about the reasons we need probability in statistics!!

Now we will formalize the definition and look at our remaining examples before moving on to the next step, which will be to determine if a normal distribution applies and calculate the p-value.

Test Statistic for Hypothesis Tests for One Proportion is:

$z=\dfrac{\hat{p}-p_{0}}{\sqrt{\dfrac{p_{0}\left(1-p_{0}\right)}{n}}}$

It represents the difference between the sample proportion and the null value, measured in standard deviations (standard error of p-hat).

The picture above is a representation of the sampling distribution of p-hat assuming p = p 0 . In other words, this is a model of how p-hat behaves if we are drawing random samples from a population for which Ho is true.

Notice the center of the sampling distribution is at p 0 , which is the hypothesized proportion given in the null hypothesis (Ho: p = p 0 .) We could also mark the axis in standard error units,

$\sqrt{\dfrac{p_{0}\left(1-p_{0}\right)}{n}}$

For example, if our null hypothesis claims that the proportion of U.S. adults supporting the death penalty is 0.64, then the sampling distribution is drawn as if the null is true. We draw a normal distribution centered at 0.64 (p 0 ) with a standard error dependent on sample size,

$\sqrt{\dfrac{0.64(1-0.64)}{n}}$.

Important Comment:

Note that under the assumption that Ho is true (and if the conditions for the sampling distribution to be normal are satisfied) the test statistic follows a N(0,1) (standard normal) distribution. Another way to say the same thing which is quite common is: “The null distribution of the test statistic is N(0,1).”

By “null distribution,” we mean the distribution under the assumption that Ho is true. As we’ll see and stress again later, the null distribution of the test statistic is what the calculation of the p-value is based on.

Let’s go back to our remaining two examples and find the test statistic in each case:

Since the null hypothesis is Ho: p = 0.157, the standardized (z) score of p-hat = 0.19 is

$z=\dfrac{0.19-0.157}{\sqrt{\dfrac{0.157(1-0.157)}{100}}} \approx 0.91$

This is the value of the test statistic for this example.

We interpret this to mean that, assuming that Ho is true, the sample proportion p-hat = 0.19 is 0.91 standard errors above the null value (0.157).

Since the null hypothesis is Ho: p = 0.64, the standardized (z) score of p-hat = 0.675 is

$z=\dfrac{0.675-0.64}{\sqrt{\dfrac{0.64(1-0.64)}{1000}}} \approx 2.31$

We interpret this to mean that, assuming that Ho is true, the sample proportion p-hat = 0.675 is 2.31 standard errors above the null value (0.64).

Learn by Doing: Proportions (Step 2)

Comments about the Test Statistic:

We mentioned earlier that to some degree, the test statistic captures the essence of the test. In this case, the test statistic measures the difference between p-hat and p 0 in standard errors. This is exactly what this test is about. Get data, and look at the discrepancy between what the data estimates p to be (represented by p-hat) and what Ho claims about p (represented by p 0 ).
You can think about this test statistic as a measure of evidence in the data against Ho. The larger the test statistic, the “further the data are from Ho” and therefore the more evidence the data provide against Ho.

Learn by Doing: Proportions (Step 2) Understanding the Test Statistic

Did I Get This?: Proportions (Step 2)

It should now be clear why this test is commonly known as the z-test for the population proportion . The name comes from the fact that it is based on a test statistic that is a z-score.
Recall fact 1 that we used for constructing the z-test statistic. Here is part of it again:

When we take a random sample of size n from a population with population proportion p 0 , the possible values of the sample proportion p-hat ( when certain conditions are met ) have approximately a normal distribution with a mean of p 0 … and a standard deviation of

This result provides the theoretical justification for constructing the test statistic the way we did, and therefore the assumptions under which this result holds (in bold, above) are the conditions that our data need to satisfy so that we can use this test. These two conditions are:

i. The sample has to be random.

ii. The conditions under which the sampling distribution of p-hat is normal are met. In other words:

Here we will pause to say more about condition (i.) above, the need for a random sample. In the Probability Unit we discussed sampling plans based on probability (such as a simple random sample, cluster, or stratified sampling) that produce a non-biased sample, which can be safely used in order to make inferences about a population. We noted in the Probability Unit that, in practice, other (non-random) sampling techniques are sometimes used when random sampling is not feasible. It is important though, when these techniques are used, to be aware of the type of bias that they introduce, and thus the limitations of the conclusions that can be drawn from them. For our purpose here, we will focus on one such practice, the situation in which a sample is not really chosen randomly, but in the context of the categorical variable that is being studied, the sample is regarded as random. For example, say that you are interested in the proportion of students at a certain college who suffer from seasonal allergies. For that purpose, the students in a large engineering class could be considered as a random sample, since there is nothing about being in an engineering class that makes you more or less likely to suffer from seasonal allergies. Technically, the engineering class is a convenience sample, but it is treated as a random sample in the context of this categorical variable. On the other hand, if you are interested in the proportion of students in the college who have math anxiety, then the class of engineering students clearly could not possibly be viewed as a random sample, since engineering students probably have a much lower incidence of math anxiety than the college population overall.

Learn by Doing: Proportions (Step 2) Valid or Invalid Sampling?

Let’s check the conditions in our three examples.

i. The 400 products were chosen at random.

ii. n = 400, p 0 = 0.2 and therefore:

$n p_{0}=400(0.2)=80 \geq 10$

$n\left(1-p_{0}\right)=400(1-0.2)=320 \geq 10$

i. The 100 students were chosen at random.

ii. n = 100, p 0 = 0.157 and therefore:

\begin{gathered} n p_{0}=100(0.157)=15.7 \geq 10 \\ n\left(1-p_{0}\right)=100(1-0.157)=84.3 \geq 10 \end{gathered}

i. The 1000 adults were chosen at random.

ii. n = 1000, p 0 = 0.64 and therefore:

\begin{gathered} n p_{0}=1000(0.64)=640 \geq 10 \\ n\left(1-p_{0}\right)=1000(1-0.64)=360 \geq 10 \end{gathered}

Learn by Doing: Proportions (Step 2) Verify Conditions

Checking that our data satisfy the conditions under which the test can be reliably used is a very important part of the hypothesis testing process. Be sure to consider this for every hypothesis test you conduct in this course and certainly in practice.

The Four Steps in Hypothesis Testing

With respect to the z-test, the population proportion that we are currently discussing we have:

Step 1: Completed

Step 2: Completed

Step 3: This is what we will work on next.

Proportions (Step 3)

Video: Proportions (Step 3) (14:46)

Calculators and Tables

Step 3. Finding the P-value of the Test

So far we’ve talked about the p-value at the intuitive level: understanding what it is (or what it measures) and how we use it to draw conclusions about the statistical significance of our results. We will now go more deeply into how the p-value is calculated.

It should be mentioned that eventually we will rely on technology to calculate the p-value for us (as well as the test statistic), but in order to make intelligent use of the output, it is important to first understand the details, and only then let the computer do the calculations for us. Again, our goal is to use this simple example to give you the tools you need to understand the process entirely. Let’s start.

Recall that so far we have said that the p-value is the probability of obtaining data like those observed assuming that Ho is true. Like the test statistic, the p-value is, therefore, a measure of the evidence against Ho. In the case of the test statistic, the larger it is in magnitude (positive or negative), the further p-hat is from p 0 , the more evidence we have against Ho. In the case of the p-value , it is the opposite; the smaller it is, the more unlikely it is to get data like those observed when Ho is true, the more evidence it is against Ho . One can actually draw conclusions in hypothesis testing just using the test statistic, and as we’ll see the p-value is, in a sense, just another way of looking at the test statistic. The reason that we actually take the extra step in this course and derive the p-value from the test statistic is that even though in this case (the test about the population proportion) and some other tests, the value of the test statistic has a very clear and intuitive interpretation, there are some tests where its value is not as easy to interpret. On the other hand, the p-value keeps its intuitive appeal across all statistical tests.

How is the p-value calculated?

Intuitively, the p-value is the probability of observing data like those observed assuming that Ho is true. Let’s be a bit more formal:

Since this is a probability question about the data , it makes sense that the calculation will involve the data summary, the test statistic.
What do we mean by “like” those observed? By “like” we mean “as extreme or even more extreme.”

Putting it all together, we get that in general:

The p-value is the probability of observing a test statistic as extreme as that observed (or even more extreme) assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

By “extreme” we mean extreme in the direction(s) of the alternative hypothesis.

Specifically , for the z-test for the population proportion:

If the alternative hypothesis is Ha: p < p 0 (less than) , then “extreme” means small or less than , and the p-value is: The probability of observing a test statistic as small as that observed or smaller if the null hypothesis is true.
If the alternative hypothesis is Ha: p > p 0 (greater than) , then “extreme” means large or greater than , and the p-value is: The probability of observing a test statistic as large as that observed or larger if the null hypothesis is true.
If the alternative is Ha: p ≠ p 0 (different from) , then “extreme” means extreme in either direction either small or large (i.e., large in magnitude) or just different from , and the p-value therefore is: The probability of observing a test statistic as large in magnitude as that observed or larger if the null hypothesis is true.(Examples: If z = -2.5: p-value = probability of observing a test statistic as small as -2.5 or smaller or as large as 2.5 or larger. If z = 1.5: p-value = probability of observing a test statistic as large as 1.5 or larger, or as small as -1.5 or smaller.)

OK, hopefully that makes (some) sense. But how do we actually calculate it?

Recall the important comment from our discussion about our test statistic,

which said that when the null hypothesis is true (i.e., when p = p 0 ), the possible values of our test statistic follow a standard normal (N(0,1), denoted by Z) distribution. Therefore, the p-value calculations (which assume that Ho is true) are simply standard normal distribution calculations for the 3 possible alternative hypotheses.

Alternative Hypothesis is “Less Than”

The probability of observing a test statistic as small as that observed or smaller , assuming that the values of the test statistic follow a standard normal distribution. We will now represent this probability in symbols and also using the normal distribution.

Looking at the shaded region, you can see why this is often referred to as a left-tailed test. We shaded to the left of the test statistic, since less than is to the left.

Alternative Hypothesis is “Greater Than”

The probability of observing a test statistic as large as that observed or larger , assuming that the values of the test statistic follow a standard normal distribution. Again, we will represent this probability in symbols and using the normal distribution

Looking at the shaded region, you can see why this is often referred to as a right-tailed test. We shaded to the right of the test statistic, since greater than is to the right.

Alternative Hypothesis is “Not Equal To”

The probability of observing a test statistic which is as large in magnitude as that observed or larger, assuming that the values of the test statistic follow a standard normal distribution.

This is often referred to as a two-tailed test, since we shaded in both directions.

Next, we will apply this to our three examples. But first, work through the following activities, which should help your understanding.

Learn by Doing: Proportions (Step 3)

Did I Get This?: Proportions (Step 3)

The p-value in this case is:

The probability of observing a test statistic as small as -2 or smaller, assuming that Ho is true.

OR (recalling what the test statistic actually means in this case),

The probability of observing a sample proportion that is 2 standard deviations or more below the null value (p 0 = 0.20), assuming that p 0 is the true population proportion.

OR, more specifically,

The probability of observing a sample proportion of 0.16 or lower in a random sample of size 400, when the true population proportion is p 0 =0.20

In either case, the p-value is found as shown in the following figure:

To find P(Z ≤ -2) we can either use the calculator or table we learned to use in the probability unit for normal random variables. Eventually, after we understand the details, we will use software to run the test for us and the output will give us all the information we need. The p-value that the statistical software provides for this specific example is 0.023. The p-value tells us that it is pretty unlikely (probability of 0.023) to get data like those observed (test statistic of -2 or less) assuming that Ho is true.

The probability of observing a test statistic as large as 0.91 or larger, assuming that Ho is true.
The probability of observing a sample proportion that is 0.91 standard deviations or more above the null value (p 0 = 0.157), assuming that p 0 is the true population proportion.
The probability of observing a sample proportion of 0.19 or higher in a random sample of size 100, when the true population proportion is p 0 =0.157

Again, at this point we can either use the calculator or table to find that the p-value is 0.182, this is P(Z ≥ 0.91).

The p-value tells us that it is not very surprising (probability of 0.182) to get data like those observed (which yield a test statistic of 0.91 or higher) assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

The probability of observing a test statistic as large as 2.31 (or larger) or as small as -2.31 (or smaller), assuming that Ho is true.
The probability of observing a sample proportion that is 2.31 standard deviations or more away from the null value (p 0 = 0.64), assuming that p 0 is the true population proportion.
The probability of observing a sample proportion as different as 0.675 is from 0.64, or even more different (i.e. as high as 0.675 or higher or as low as 0.605 or lower) in a random sample of size 1,000, when the true population proportion is p 0 = 0.64

Again, at this point we can either use the calculator or table to find that the p-value is 0.021, this is P(Z ≤ -2.31) + P(Z ≥ 2.31) = 2*P(Z ≥ |2.31|)

The p-value tells us that it is pretty unlikely (probability of 0.021) to get data like those observed (test statistic as high as 2.31 or higher or as low as -2.31 or lower) assuming that Ho is true.

We’ve just seen that finding p-values involves probability calculations about the value of the test statistic assuming that Ho is true. In this case, when Ho is true, the values of the test statistic follow a standard normal distribution (i.e., the sampling distribution of the test statistic when the null hypothesis is true is N(0,1)). Therefore, p-values correspond to areas (probabilities) under the standard normal curve.

Similarly, in any test , p-values are found using the sampling distribution of the test statistic when the null hypothesis is true (also known as the “null distribution” of the test statistic). In this case, it was relatively easy to argue that the null distribution of our test statistic is N(0,1). As we’ll see, in other tests, other distributions come up (like the t-distribution and the F-distribution), which we will just mention briefly, and rely heavily on the output of our statistical package for obtaining the p-values.

We’ve just completed our discussion about the p-value, and how it is calculated both in general and more specifically for the z-test for the population proportion. Let’s go back to the four-step process of hypothesis testing and see what we’ve covered and what still needs to be discussed.

With respect to the z-test the population proportion:

Step 3: Completed

Step 4. This is what we will work on next.

Learn by Doing: Proportions (Step 3) Understanding P-values

Proportions (Step 4 & Summary)

Video: Proportions (Step 4 & Summary) (4:30)

Step 4. Drawing Conclusions Based on the P-Value

This last part of the four-step process of hypothesis testing is the same across all statistical tests, and actually, we’ve already said basically everything there is to say about it, but it can’t hurt to say it again.

The p-value is a measure of how much evidence the data present against Ho. The smaller the p-value, the more evidence the data present against Ho.

We already mentioned that what determines what constitutes enough evidence against Ho is the significance level (α, alpha), a cutoff point below which the p-value is considered small enough to reject Ho in favor of Ha. The most commonly used significance level is 0.05.

Conclusion: There IS enough evidence that Ha is True
Conclusion: There IS NOT enough evidence that Ha is True

Where instead of Ha is True , we write what this means in the words of the problem, in other words, in the context of the current scenario.

It is important to mention again that this step has essentially two sub-steps:

(i) Based on the p-value, determine whether or not the results are statistically significant (i.e., the data present enough evidence to reject Ho).

(ii) State your conclusions in the context of the problem.

Note: We always still must consider whether the results have any practical significance, particularly if they are statistically significant as a statistically significant result which has not practical use is essentially meaningless!

Let’s go back to our three examples and draw conclusions.

We found that the p-value for this test was 0.023.

Since 0.023 is small (in particular, 0.023 < 0.05), the data provide enough evidence to reject Ho.

Conclusion:

There IS enough evidence that the proportion of defective products is less than 20% after the repair .

The following figure is the complete story of this example, and includes all the steps we went through, starting from stating the hypotheses and ending with our conclusions:

We found that the p-value for this test was 0.182.

Since .182 is not small (in particular, 0.182 > 0.05), the data do not provide enough evidence to reject Ho.

There IS NOT enough evidence that the proportion of students at the college who use marijuana is higher than the national figure.

Here is the complete story of this example:

Learn by Doing: Learn by Doing – Proportions (Step 4)

We found that the p-value for this test was 0.021.

Since 0.021 is small (in particular, 0.021 < 0.05), the data provide enough evidence to reject Ho

There IS enough evidence that the proportion of adults who support the death penalty for convicted murderers has changed since 2003.

Did I Get This?: Proportions (Step 4)

Many Students Wonder: Hypothesis Testing for the Population Proportion

Many students wonder why 5% is often selected as the significance level in hypothesis testing, and why 1% is the next most typical level. This is largely due to just convenience and tradition.

When Ronald Fisher (one of the founders of modern statistics) published one of his tables, he used a mathematically convenient scale that included 5% and 1%. Later, these same 5% and 1% levels were used by other people, in part just because Fisher was so highly esteemed. But mostly these are arbitrary levels.

The idea of selecting some sort of relatively small cutoff was historically important in the development of statistics; but it’s important to remember that there is really a continuous range of increasing confidence towards the alternative hypothesis, not a single all-or-nothing value. There isn’t much meaningful difference, for instance, between a p-value of .049 or .051, and it would be foolish to declare one case definitely a “real” effect and to declare the other case definitely a “random” effect. In either case, the study results were roughly 5% likely by chance if there’s no actual effect.

Whether such a p-value is sufficient for us to reject a particular null hypothesis ultimately depends on the risk of making the wrong decision, and the extent to which the hypothesized effect might contradict our prior experience or previous studies.

Let’s Summarize!!

We have now completed going through the four steps of hypothesis testing, and in particular we learned how they are applied to the z-test for the population proportion. Here is a brief summary:

Step 1: State the hypotheses

State the null hypothesis:

State the alternative hypothesis:

where the choice of the appropriate alternative (out of the three) is usually quite clear from the context of the problem. If you feel it is not clear, it is most likely a two-sided problem. Students are usually good at recognizing the “more than” and “less than” terminology but differences can sometimes be more difficult to spot, sometimes this is because you have preconceived ideas of how you think it should be! Use only the information given in the problem.

Step 2: Obtain data, check conditions, and summarize data

Obtain data from a sample and:

(i) Check whether the data satisfy the conditions which allow you to use this test.

random sample (or at least a sample that can be considered random in context)

the conditions under which the sampling distribution of p-hat is normal are met

(ii) Calculate the sample proportion p-hat, and summarize the data using the test statistic:

( Recall: This standardized test statistic represents how many standard deviations above or below p 0 our sample proportion p-hat is.)

Step 3: Find the p-value of the test by using the test statistic as follows

IMPORTANT FACT: In all future tests, we will rely on software to obtain the p-value.

When the alternative hypothesis is “less than” the probability of observing a test statistic as small as that observed or smaller , assuming that the values of the test statistic follow a standard normal distribution. We will now represent this probability in symbols and also using the normal distribution.

When the alternative hypothesis is “greater than” the probability of observing a test statistic as large as that observed or larger , assuming that the values of the test statistic follow a standard normal distribution. Again, we will represent this probability in symbols and using the normal distribution

When the alternative hypothesis is “not equal to” the probability of observing a test statistic which is as large in magnitude as that observed or larger, assuming that the values of the test statistic follow a standard normal distribution.

Step 4: Conclusion

Reach a conclusion first regarding the statistical significance of the results, and then determine what it means in the context of the problem.

If p-value ≤ 0.05 then WE REJECT Ho Conclusion: There IS enough evidence that Ha is True

If p-value > 0.05 then WE FAIL TO REJECT Ho Conclusion: There IS NOT enough evidence that Ha is True

Recall that: If the p-value is small (in particular, smaller than the significance level, which is usually 0.05), the results are statistically significant (in the sense that there is a statistically significant difference between what was observed in the sample and what was claimed in Ho), and so we reject Ho.

If the p-value is not small, we do not have enough statistical evidence to reject Ho, and so we continue to believe that Ho may be true. ( Remember: In hypothesis testing we never “accept” Ho ).

Finally, in practice, we should always consider the practical significance of the results as well as the statistical significance.

Learn by Doing: Z-Test for a Population Proportion

What’s next?

Before we move on to the next test, we are going to use the z-test for proportions to bring up and illustrate a few more very important issues regarding hypothesis testing. This might also be a good time to review the concepts of Type I error, Type II error, and Power before continuing on.

More about Hypothesis Testing

CO-1: Describe the roles biostatistics serves in the discipline of public health.

LO 1.11: Recognize the distinction between statistical significance and practical significance.

LO 6.30: Use a confidence interval to determine the correct conclusion to the associated two-sided hypothesis test.

Video: More about Hypothesis Testing (18:25)

The issues regarding hypothesis testing that we will discuss are:

The effect of sample size on hypothesis testing.
Statistical significance vs. practical importance.
Hypothesis testing and confidence intervals—how are they related?

Let’s begin.

1. The Effect of Sample Size on Hypothesis Testing

We have already seen the effect that the sample size has on inference, when we discussed point and interval estimation for the population mean (μ, mu) and population proportion (p). Intuitively …

Larger sample sizes give us more information to pin down the true nature of the population. We can therefore expect the sample mean and sample proportion obtained from a larger sample to be closer to the population mean and proportion, respectively. As a result, for the same level of confidence, we can report a smaller margin of error, and get a narrower confidence interval. What we’ve seen, then, is that larger sample size gives a boost to how much we trust our sample results.

In hypothesis testing, larger sample sizes have a similar effect. We have also discussed that the power of our test increases when the sample size increases, all else remaining the same. This means, we have a better chance to detect the difference between the true value and the null value for larger samples.

The following two examples will illustrate that a larger sample size provides more convincing evidence (the test has greater power), and how the evidence manifests itself in hypothesis testing. Let’s go back to our example 2 (marijuana use at a certain liberal arts college).

We do not have enough evidence to conclude that the proportion of students at the college who use marijuana is higher than the national figure.

Now, let’s increase the sample size.

There are rumors that students in a certain liberal arts college are more inclined to use drugs than U.S. college students in general. Suppose that in a simple random sample of 400 students from the college, 76 admitted to marijuana use . Do the data provide enough evidence to conclude that the proportion of marijuana users among the students in the college (p) is higher than the national proportion, which is 0.157? (Reported by the Harvard School of Public Health).

Our results here are statistically significant . In other words, in example 2* the data provide enough evidence to reject Ho.

Conclusion: There is enough evidence that the proportion of marijuana users at the college is higher than among all U.S. students.

What do we learn from this?

We see that sample results that are based on a larger sample carry more weight (have greater power).

In example 2, we saw that a sample proportion of 0.19 based on a sample of size of 100 was not enough evidence that the proportion of marijuana users in the college is higher than 0.157. Recall, from our general overview of hypothesis testing, that this conclusion (not having enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis) doesn’t mean the null hypothesis is necessarily true (so, we never “accept” the null); it only means that the particular study didn’t yield sufficient evidence to reject the null. It might be that the sample size was simply too small to detect a statistically significant difference.

However, in example 2*, we saw that when the sample proportion of 0.19 is obtained from a sample of size 400, it carries much more weight, and in particular, provides enough evidence that the proportion of marijuana users in the college is higher than 0.157 (the national figure). In this case, the sample size of 400 was large enough to detect a statistically significant difference.

The following activity will allow you to practice the ideas and terminology used in hypothesis testing when a result is not statistically significant.

Learn by Doing: Interpreting Non-significant Results

2. Statistical significance vs. practical importance.

Now, we will address the issue of statistical significance versus practical importance (which also involves issues of sample size).

The following activity will let you explore the effect of the sample size on the statistical significance of the results yourself, and more importantly will discuss issue 2: Statistical significance vs. practical importance.

Important Fact: In general, with a sufficiently large sample size you can make any result that has very little practical importance statistically significant! A large sample size alone does NOT make a “good” study!!

This suggests that when interpreting the results of a test, you should always think not only about the statistical significance of the results but also about their practical importance.

Learn by Doing: Statistical vs. Practical Significance

3. Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Intervals

The last topic we want to discuss is the relationship between hypothesis testing and confidence intervals. Even though the flavor of these two forms of inference is different (confidence intervals estimate a parameter, and hypothesis testing assesses the evidence in the data against one claim and in favor of another), there is a strong link between them.

We will explain this link (using the z-test and confidence interval for the population proportion), and then explain how confidence intervals can be used after a test has been carried out.

Recall that a confidence interval gives us a set of plausible values for the unknown population parameter. We may therefore examine a confidence interval to informally decide if a proposed value of population proportion seems plausible.

For example, if a 95% confidence interval for p, the proportion of all U.S. adults already familiar with Viagra in May 1998, was (0.61, 0.67), then it seems clear that we should be able to reject a claim that only 50% of all U.S. adults were familiar with the drug, since based on the confidence interval, 0.50 is not one of the plausible values for p.

In fact, the information provided by a confidence interval can be formally related to the information provided by a hypothesis test. ( Comment: The relationship is more straightforward for two-sided alternatives, and so we will not present results for the one-sided cases.)

Suppose we want to carry out the two-sided test:

Ha: p ≠ p 0

using a significance level of 0.05.

An alternative way to perform this test is to find a 95% confidence interval for p and check:

If p 0 falls outside the confidence interval, reject Ho.
If p 0 falls inside the confidence interval, do not reject Ho.

In other words,

If p 0 is not one of the plausible values for p, we reject Ho.
If p 0 is a plausible value for p, we cannot reject Ho.

( Comment: Similarly, the results of a test using a significance level of 0.01 can be related to the 99% confidence interval.)

Let’s look at an example:

Recall example 3, where we wanted to know whether the proportion of U.S. adults who support the death penalty for convicted murderers has changed since 2003, when it was 0.64.

We are testing:

and as the figure reminds us, we took a sample of 1,000 U.S. adults, and the data told us that 675 supported the death penalty for convicted murderers (p-hat = 0.675).

A 95% confidence interval for p, the proportion of all U.S. adults who support the death penalty, is:

$0.675 \pm 1.96 \sqrt{\dfrac{0.675(1-0.675)}{1000}} \approx 0.675 \pm 0.029=(0.646,0.704)$

Since the 95% confidence interval for p does not include 0.64 as a plausible value for p, we can reject Ho and conclude (as we did before) that there is enough evidence that the proportion of U.S. adults who support the death penalty for convicted murderers has changed since 2003.

You and your roommate are arguing about whose turn it is to clean the apartment. Your roommate suggests that you settle this by tossing a coin and takes one out of a locked box he has on the shelf. Suspecting that the coin might not be fair, you decide to test it first. You toss the coin 80 times, thinking to yourself that if, indeed, the coin is fair, you should get around 40 heads. Instead you get 48 heads. You are puzzled. You are not sure whether getting 48 heads out of 80 is enough evidence to conclude that the coin is unbalanced, or whether this a result that could have happened just by chance when the coin is fair.

Statistics can help you answer this question.

Let p be the true proportion (probability) of heads. We want to test whether the coin is fair or not.

Ho: p = 0.5 (the coin is fair).
Ha: p ≠ 0.5 (the coin is not fair).

The data we have are that out of n = 80 tosses, we got 48 heads, or that the sample proportion of heads is p-hat = 48/80 = 0.6.

A 95% confidence interval for p, the true proportion of heads for this coin, is:

$0.6 \pm 1.96 \sqrt{\dfrac{0.6(1-0.6)}{80}} \approx 0.6 \pm 0.11=(0.49,0.71)$

Since in this case 0.5 is one of the plausible values for p, we cannot reject Ho. In other words, the data do not provide enough evidence to conclude that the coin is not fair.

The context of the last example is a good opportunity to bring up an important point that was discussed earlier.

Even though we use 0.05 as a cutoff to guide our decision about whether the results are statistically significant, we should not treat it as inviolable and we should always add our own judgment. Let’s look at the last example again.

It turns out that the p-value of this test is 0.0734. In other words, it is maybe not extremely unlikely, but it is quite unlikely (probability of 0.0734) that when you toss a fair coin 80 times you’ll get a sample proportion of heads of 48/80 = 0.6 (or even more extreme). It is true that using the 0.05 significance level (cutoff), 0.0734 is not considered small enough to conclude that the coin is not fair. However, if you really don’t want to clean the apartment, the p-value might be small enough for you to ask your roommate to use a different coin, or to provide one yourself!

Did I Get This?: Connection between Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests

Did I Get This?: Hypothesis Tests for Proportions (Extra Practice)

Here is our final point on this subject:

When the data provide enough evidence to reject Ho, we can conclude (depending on the alternative hypothesis) that the population proportion is either less than, greater than, or not equal to the null value p 0 . However, we do not get a more informative statement about its actual value. It might be of interest, then, to follow the test with a 95% confidence interval that will give us more insight into the actual value of p.

In our example 3,

we concluded that the proportion of U.S. adults who support the death penalty for convicted murderers has changed since 2003, when it was 0.64. It is probably of interest not only to know that the proportion has changed, but also to estimate what it has changed to. We’ve calculated the 95% confidence interval for p on the previous page and found that it is (0.646, 0.704).

We can combine our conclusions from the test and the confidence interval and say:

Data provide evidence that the proportion of U.S. adults who support the death penalty for convicted murderers has changed since 2003, and we are 95% confident that it is now between 0.646 and 0.704. (i.e. between 64.6% and 70.4%).

Let’s look at our example 1 to see how a confidence interval following a test might be insightful in a different way.

Here is a summary of example 1:

We conclude that as a result of the repair, the proportion of defective products has been reduced to below 0.20 (which was the proportion prior to the repair). It is probably of great interest to the company not only to know that the proportion of defective has been reduced, but also estimate what it has been reduced to, to get a better sense of how effective the repair was. A 95% confidence interval for p in this case is:

$0.16 \pm 1.96 \sqrt{\dfrac{0.16(1-0.16)}{400}} \approx 0.16 \pm 0.036=(0.124,0.196)$

We can therefore say that the data provide evidence that the proportion of defective products has been reduced, and we are 95% confident that it has been reduced to somewhere between 12.4% and 19.6%. This is very useful information, since it tells us that even though the results were significant (i.e., the repair reduced the number of defective products), the repair might not have been effective enough, if it managed to reduce the number of defective products only to the range provided by the confidence interval. This, of course, ties back in to the idea of statistical significance vs. practical importance that we discussed earlier. Even though the results are statistically significant (Ho was rejected), practically speaking, the repair might still be considered ineffective.

Learn by Doing: Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals

Even though this portion of the current section is about the z-test for population proportion, it is loaded with very important ideas that apply to hypothesis testing in general. We’ve already summarized the details that are specific to the z-test for proportions, so the purpose of this summary is to highlight the general ideas.

The process of hypothesis testing has four steps :

I. Stating the null and alternative hypotheses (Ho and Ha).

II. Obtaining a random sample (or at least one that can be considered random) and collecting data. Using the data:

Check that the conditions under which the test can be reliably used are met.

Summarize the data using a test statistic.

The test statistic is a measure of the evidence in the data against Ho. The larger the test statistic is in magnitude, the more evidence the data present against Ho.

III. Finding the p-value of the test. The p-value is the probability of getting data like those observed (or even more extreme) assuming that the null hypothesis is true, and is calculated using the null distribution of the test statistic. The p-value is a measure of the evidence against Ho. The smaller the p-value, the more evidence the data present against Ho.

IV. Making conclusions.

Conclusions about the statistical significance of the results:

If the p-value is small, the data present enough evidence to reject Ho (and accept Ha).

If the p-value is not small, the data do not provide enough evidence to reject Ho.

To help guide our decision, we use the significance level as a cutoff for what is considered a small p-value. The significance cutoff is usually set at 0.05.

Conclusions should then be provided in the context of the problem.

Additional Important Ideas about Hypothesis Testing

Results that are based on a larger sample carry more weight, and therefore as the sample size increases, results become more statistically significant.
Even a very small and practically unimportant effect becomes statistically significant with a large enough sample size. The distinction between statistical significance and practical importance should therefore always be considered.
Confidence intervals can be used in order to carry out two-sided tests (95% confidence for the 0.05 significance level). If the null value is not included in the confidence interval (i.e., is not one of the plausible values for the parameter), we have enough evidence to reject Ho. Otherwise, we cannot reject Ho.
If the results are statistically significant, it might be of interest to follow up the tests with a confidence interval in order to get insight into the actual value of the parameter of interest.
It is important to be aware that there are two types of errors in hypothesis testing ( Type I and Type II ) and that the power of a statistical test is an important measure of how likely we are to be able to detect a difference of interest to us in a particular problem.

Means (All Steps)

NOTE: Beginning on this page, the Learn By Doing and Did I Get This activities are presented as interactive PDF files. The interactivity may not work on mobile devices or with certain PDF viewers. Use an official ADOBE product such as ADOBE READER .

If you have any issues with the Learn By Doing or Did I Get This interactive PDF files, you can view all of the questions and answers presented on this page in this document:

QUESTION/Answer (SPOILER ALERT!)

Tests About μ (mu) When σ (sigma) is Unknown – The t-test for a Population Mean

The t-distribution.

Video: Means (All Steps) (13:11)

So far we have talked about the logic behind hypothesis testing and then illustrated how this process proceeds in practice, using the z-test for the population proportion (p).

We are now moving on to discuss testing for the population mean (μ, mu), which is the parameter of interest when the variable of interest is quantitative.

A few comments about the structure of this section:

The basic groundwork for carrying out hypothesis tests has already been laid in our general discussion and in our presentation of tests about proportions.

Therefore we can easily modify the four steps to carry out tests about means instead, without going into all of the details again.

We will use this approach for all future tests so be sure to go back to the discussion in general and for proportions to review the concepts in more detail.

In our discussion about confidence intervals for the population mean, we made the distinction between whether the population standard deviation, σ (sigma) was known or if we needed to estimate this value using the sample standard deviation, s .

In this section, we will only discuss the second case as in most realistic settings we do not know the population standard deviation .

In this case we need to use the t- distribution instead of the standard normal distribution for the probability aspects of confidence intervals (choosing table values) and hypothesis tests (finding p-values).

Although we will discuss some theoretical or conceptual details for some of the analyses we will learn, from this point on we will rely on software to conduct tests and calculate confidence intervals for us , while we focus on understanding which methods are used for which situations and what the results say in context.

If you are interested in more information about the z-test, where we assume the population standard deviation σ (sigma) is known, you can review the Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Statistics Course (you will need to click “ENTER COURSE”).

Like any other tests, the t- test for the population mean follows the four-step process:

STEP 1: Stating the hypotheses H o and H a .
STEP 2: Collecting relevant data, checking that the data satisfy the conditions which allow us to use this test, and summarizing the data using a test statistic.
STEP 3: Finding the p-value of the test, the probability of obtaining data as extreme as those collected (or even more extreme, in the direction of the alternative hypothesis), assuming that the null hypothesis is true. In other words, how likely is it that the only reason for getting data like those observed is sampling variability (and not because H o is not true)?
STEP 4: Drawing conclusions, assessing the statistical significance of the results based on the p-value, and stating our conclusions in context. (Do we or don’t we have evidence to reject H o and accept H a ?)
Note: In practice, we should also always consider the practical significance of the results as well as the statistical significance.

We will now go through the four steps specifically for the t- test for the population mean and apply them to our two examples.

Only in a few cases is it reasonable to assume that the population standard deviation, σ (sigma), is known and so we will not cover hypothesis tests in this case. We discussed both cases for confidence intervals so that we could still calculate some confidence intervals by hand.

For this and all future tests we will rely on software to obtain our summary statistics, test statistics, and p-values for us.

The case where σ (sigma) is unknown is much more common in practice. What can we use to replace σ (sigma)? If you don’t know the population standard deviation, the best you can do is find the sample standard deviation, s, and use it instead of σ (sigma). (Note that this is exactly what we did when we discussed confidence intervals).

Is that it? Can we just use s instead of σ (sigma), and the rest is the same as the previous case? Unfortunately, it’s not that simple, but not very complicated either.

Here, when we use the sample standard deviation, s, as our estimate of σ (sigma) we can no longer use a normal distribution to find the cutoff for confidence intervals or the p-values for hypothesis tests.

Instead we must use the t- distribution (with n-1 degrees of freedom) to obtain the p-value for this test.

We discussed this issue for confidence intervals. We will talk more about the t- distribution after we discuss the details of this test for those who are interested in learning more.

It isn’t really necessary for us to understand this distribution but it is important that we use the correct distributions in practice via our software.

We will wait until UNIT 4B to look at how to accomplish this test in the software. For now focus on understanding the process and drawing the correct conclusions from the p-values given.

Now let’s go through the four steps in conducting the t- test for the population mean.

The null and alternative hypotheses for the t- test for the population mean (μ, mu) have exactly the same structure as the hypotheses for z-test for the population proportion (p):

The null hypothesis has the form:

Ho: μ = μ 0 (mu = mu_zero)

(where μ 0 (mu_zero) is often called the null value)

Ha: μ < μ 0 (mu < mu_zero) (one-sided)
Ha: μ > μ 0 (mu > mu_zero) (one-sided)
Ha: μ ≠ μ 0 (mu ≠ mu_zero) (two-sided)

where the choice of the appropriate alternative (out of the three) is usually quite clear from the context of the problem.

If you feel it is not clear, it is most likely a two-sided problem. Students are usually good at recognizing the “more than” and “less than” terminology but differences can sometimes be more difficult to spot, sometimes this is because you have preconceived ideas of how you think it should be! You also cannot use the information from the sample to help you determine the hypothesis. We would not know our data when we originally asked the question.

Now try it yourself. Here are a few exercises on stating the hypotheses for tests for a population mean.

Learn by Doing: State the Hypotheses for a test for a population mean

Here are a few more activities for practice.

Did I Get This?: State the Hypotheses for a test for a population mean

When setting up hypotheses, be sure to use only the information in the research question. We cannot use our sample data to help us set up our hypotheses.

For this test, it is still important to correctly choose the alternative hypothesis as “less than”, “greater than”, or “different” although generally in practice two-sample tests are used.

Obtain data from a sample:

In this step we would obtain data from a sample. This is not something we do much of in courses but it is done very often in practice!

Check the conditions:

Then we check the conditions under which this test (the t- test for one population mean) can be safely carried out – which are:
The sample is random (or at least can be considered random in context).
We are in one of the three situations marked with a green check mark in the following table (which ensure that x-bar is at least approximately normal and the test statistic using the sample standard deviation, s, is therefore a t- distribution with n-1 degrees of freedom – proving this is beyond the scope of this course):
For large samples, we don’t need to check for normality in the population . We can rely on the sample size as the basis for the validity of using this test.
For small samples , we need to have data from a normal population in order for the p-values and confidence intervals to be valid.

In practice, for small samples, it can be very difficult to determine if the population is normal. Here is a simulation to give you a better understanding of the difficulties.

Video: Simulations – Are Samples from a Normal Population? (4:58)

Now try it yourself with a few activities.

Learn by Doing: Checking Conditions for Hypothesis Testing for the Population Mean

It is always a good idea to look at the data and get a sense of their pattern regardless of whether you actually need to do it in order to assess whether the conditions are met.
This idea of looking at the data is relevant to all tests in general. In the next module—inference for relationships—conducting exploratory data analysis before inference will be an integral part of the process.

Here are a few more problems for extra practice.

Did I Get This?: Checking Conditions for Hypothesis Testing for the Population Mean

When setting up hypotheses, be sure to use only the information in the res

Calculate Test Statistic

Assuming that the conditions are met, we calculate the sample mean x-bar and the sample standard deviation, s (which estimates σ (sigma)), and summarize the data with a test statistic.

The test statistic for the t -test for the population mean is:

$t=\dfrac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{s/ \sqrt{n}}$

Recall that such a standardized test statistic represents how many standard deviations above or below μ 0 (mu_zero) our sample mean x-bar is.

Therefore our test statistic is a measure of how different our data are from what is claimed in the null hypothesis. This is an idea that we mentioned in the previous test as well.

Again we will rely on the p-value to determine how unusual our data would be if the null hypothesis is true.

As we mentioned, the test statistic in the t -test for a population mean does not follow a standard normal distribution. Rather, it follows another bell-shaped distribution called the t- distribution.

We will present the details of this distribution at the end for those interested but for now we will work on the process of the test.

Here are a few important facts.

In statistical language we say that the null distribution of our test statistic is the t- distribution with (n-1) degrees of freedom. In other words, when Ho is true (i.e., when μ = μ 0 (mu = mu_zero)), our test statistic has a t- distribution with (n-1) d.f., and this is the distribution under which we find p-values.
For a large sample size (n), the null distribution of the test statistic is approximately Z, so whether we use t (n – 1) or Z to calculate the p-values does not make a big difference. However, software will use the t -distribution regardless of the sample size and so will we.

Although we will not calculate p-values by hand for this test, we can still easily calculate the test statistic.

Try it yourself:

Learn by Doing: Calculate the Test Statistic for a Test for a Population Mean

From this point in this course and certainly in practice we will allow the software to calculate our test statistics and we will use the p-values provided to draw our conclusions.

We will use software to obtain the p-value for this (and all future) tests but here are the images illustrating how the p-value is calculated in each of the three cases corresponding to the three choices for our alternative hypothesis.

Note that due to the symmetry of the t distribution, for a given value of the test statistic t, the p-value for the two-sided test is twice as large as the p-value of either of the one-sided tests. The same thing happens when p-values are calculated under the t distribution as when they are calculated under the Z distribution.

We will show some examples of p-values obtained from software in our examples. For now let’s continue our summary of the steps.

As usual, based on the p-value (and some significance level of choice) we assess the statistical significance of results, and draw our conclusions in context.

To review what we have said before:

If p-value ≤ 0.05 then WE REJECT Ho

If p-value > 0.05 then WE FAIL TO REJECT Ho

This step has essentially two sub-steps:

We are now ready to look at two examples.

A certain prescription medicine is supposed to contain an average of 250 parts per million (ppm) of a certain chemical. If the concentration is higher than this, the drug may cause harmful side effects; if it is lower, the drug may be ineffective.

The manufacturer runs a check to see if the mean concentration in a large shipment conforms to the target level of 250 ppm or not.

A simple random sample of 100 portions is tested, and the sample mean concentration is found to be 247 ppm with a sample standard deviation of 12 ppm.

Here is a figure that represents this example:

A large circle represents the population, which is the shipment. μ represents the concentration of the chemical. The question we want to answer is "is the mean concentration the required 250ppm or not? (Assume: SD = 12)." Selected from the population is a sample of size n=100, represented by a smaller circle. x-bar for this sample is 247.

1. The hypotheses being tested are:

Ha: μ ≠ μ 0 (mu ≠ mu_zero)
Where μ = population mean part per million of the chemical in the entire shipment

2. The conditions that allow us to use the t-test are met since:

The sample is random
The sample size is large enough for the Central Limit Theorem to apply and ensure the normality of x-bar. We do not need normality of the population in order to be able to conduct this test for the population mean. We are in the 2 nd column in the table below.
The test statistic is:

$t=\dfrac{\bar{x}-\mu_{0}}{s / \sqrt{n}}=\dfrac{247-250}{12 / \sqrt{100}}=-2.5$

The data (represented by the sample mean) are 2.5 standard errors below the null value.

3. Finding the p-value.

To find the p-value we use statistical software, and we calculate a p-value of 0.014.

4. Conclusions:

The p-value is small (.014) indicating that at the 5% significance level, the results are significant.
We reject the null hypothesis.
There is enough evidence to conclude that the mean concentration in entire shipment is not the required 250 ppm.
It is difficult to comment on the practical significance of this result without more understanding of the practical considerations of this problem.

Here is a summary:

The 95% confidence interval for μ (mu) can be used here in the same way as for proportions to conduct the two-sided test (checking whether the null value falls inside or outside the confidence interval) or following a t- test where Ho was rejected to get insight into the value of μ (mu).
We find the 95% confidence interval to be (244.619, 249.381) . Since 250 is not in the interval we know we would reject our null hypothesis that μ (mu) = 250. The confidence interval gives additional information. By accounting for estimation error, it estimates that the population mean is likely to be between 244.62 and 249.38. This is lower than the target concentration and that information might help determine the seriousness and appropriate course of action in this situation.

In most situations in practice we use TWO-SIDED HYPOTHESIS TESTS, followed by confidence intervals to gain more insight.

For completeness in covering one sample t-tests for a population mean, we still cover all three possible alternative hypotheses here HOWEVER, this will be the last test for which we will do so.

A research study measured the pulse rates of 57 college men and found a mean pulse rate of 70 beats per minute with a standard deviation of 9.85 beats per minute.

Researchers want to know if the mean pulse rate for all college men is different from the current standard of 72 beats per minute.

The hypotheses being tested are:
Ho: μ = 72
Ha: μ ≠ 72
Where μ = population mean heart rate among college men
The conditions that allow us to use the t- test are met since:
The sample is random.
The sample size is large (n = 57) so we do not need normality of the population in order to be able to conduct this test for the population mean. We are in the 2 nd column in the table below.

$t=\dfrac{\bar{x}-\mu}{s / \sqrt{n}}=\dfrac{70-72}{9.85 / \sqrt{57}}=-1.53$

The data (represented by the sample mean) are 1.53 estimated standard errors below the null value.
Recall that in general the p-value is calculated under the null distribution of the test statistic, which, in the t- test case, is t (n-1). In our case, in which n = 57, the p-value is calculated under the t (56) distribution. Using statistical software, we find that the p-value is 0.132 .
Here is how we calculated the p-value. http://homepage.stat.uiowa.edu/~mbognar/applets/t.html .

A t(56) curve, for which the horizontal axis has been labeled with t-scores of -2.5 and 2.5 . The area under the curve and to the left of -1.53 and to the right of 1.53 is the p-value.

4. Making conclusions.

The p-value (0.132) is not small, indicating that the results are not significant.
We fail to reject the null hypothesis.
There is not enough evidence to conclude that the mean pulse rate for all college men is different from the current standard of 72 beats per minute.
The results from this sample do not appear to have any practical significance either with a mean pulse rate of 70, this is very similar to the hypothesized value, relative to the variation expected in pulse rates.

Now try a few yourself.

Learn by Doing: Hypothesis Testing for the Population Mean

From this point in this course and certainly in practice we will allow the software to calculate our test statistic and p-value and we will use the p-values provided to draw our conclusions.

That concludes our discussion of hypothesis tests in Unit 4A.

In the next unit we will continue to use both confidence intervals and hypothesis test to investigate the relationship between two variables in the cases we covered in Unit 1 on exploratory data analysis – we will look at Case CQ, Case CC, and Case QQ.

Before moving on, we will discuss the details about the t- distribution as a general object.

We have seen that variables can be visually modeled by many different sorts of shapes, and we call these shapes distributions. Several distributions arise so frequently that they have been given special names, and they have been studied mathematically.

So far in the course, the only one we’ve named, for continuous quantitative variables, is the normal distribution, but there are others. One of them is called the t- distribution.

The t- distribution is another bell-shaped (unimodal and symmetric) distribution, like the normal distribution; and the center of the t- distribution is standardized at zero, like the center of the standard normal distribution.

Like all distributions that are used as probability models, the normal and the t- distribution are both scaled, so the total area under each of them is 1.

So how is the t-distribution fundamentally different from the normal distribution?

The spread .

The following picture illustrates the fundamental difference between the normal distribution and the t-distribution:

Here we have an image which illustrates the fundamental difference between the normal distribution and the t- distribution:

You can see in the picture that the t- distribution has slightly less area near the expected central value than the normal distribution does, and you can see that the t distribution has correspondingly more area in the “tails” than the normal distribution does. (It’s often said that the t- distribution has “fatter tails” or “heavier tails” than the normal distribution.)

This reflects the fact that the t- distribution has a larger spread than the normal distribution. The same total area of 1 is spread out over a slightly wider range on the t- distribution, making it a bit lower near the center compared to the normal distribution, and giving the t- distribution slightly more probability in the ‘tails’ compared to the normal distribution.

Therefore, the t- distribution ends up being the appropriate model in certain cases where there is more variability than would be predicted by the normal distribution. One of these cases is stock values, which have more variability (or “volatility,” to use the economic term) than would be predicted by the normal distribution.

There’s actually an entire family of t- distributions. They all have similar formulas (but the math is beyond the scope of this introductory course in statistics), and they all have slightly “fatter tails” than the normal distribution. But some are closer to normal than others.

The t- distributions that have higher “degrees of freedom” are closer to normal (degrees of freedom is a mathematical concept that we won’t study in this course, beyond merely mentioning it here). So, there’s a t- distribution “with one degree of freedom,” another t- distribution “with 2 degrees of freedom” which is slightly closer to normal, another t- distribution “with 3 degrees of freedom” which is a bit closer to normal than the previous ones, and so on.

The following picture illustrates this idea with just a couple of t- distributions (note that “degrees of freedom” is abbreviated “d.f.” on the picture):

The test statistic for our t-test for one population mean is a t -score which follows a t- distribution with (n – 1) degrees of freedom. Recall that each t- distribution is indexed according to “degrees of freedom.” Notice that, in the context of a test for a mean, the degrees of freedom depend on the sample size in the study.

Remember that we said that higher degrees of freedom indicate that the t- distribution is closer to normal. So in the context of a test for the mean, the larger the sample size , the higher the degrees of freedom, and the closer the t- distribution is to a normal z distribution .

As a result, in the context of a test for a mean, the effect of the t- distribution is most important for a study with a relatively small sample size .

We are now done introducing the t-distribution. What are implications of all of this?

The null distribution of our t-test statistic is the t-distribution with (n-1) d.f. In other words, when Ho is true (i.e., when μ = μ 0 (mu = mu_zero)), our test statistic has a t-distribution with (n-1) d.f., and this is the distribution under which we find p-values.
For a large sample size (n), the null distribution of the test statistic is approximately Z, so whether we use t(n – 1) or Z to calculate the p-values does not make a big difference.

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Dissertation

How to Write a Thesis or Dissertation Conclusion

Published on September 6, 2022 by Tegan George and Shona McCombes. Revised on November 20, 2023.

The conclusion is the very last part of your thesis or dissertation . It should be concise and engaging, leaving your reader with a clear understanding of your main findings, as well as the answer to your research question .

In it, you should:

Clearly state the answer to your main research question
Summarize and reflect on your research process
Make recommendations for future work on your thesis or dissertation topic
Show what new knowledge you have contributed to your field
Wrap up your thesis or dissertation

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Discussion vs. conclusion, how long should your conclusion be, step 1: answer your research question, step 2: summarize and reflect on your research, step 3: make future recommendations, step 4: emphasize your contributions to your field, step 5: wrap up your thesis or dissertation, full conclusion example, conclusion checklist, other interesting articles, frequently asked questions about conclusion sections.

While your conclusion contains similar elements to your discussion section , they are not the same thing.

Your conclusion should be shorter and more general than your discussion. Instead of repeating literature from your literature review , discussing specific research results , or interpreting your data in detail, concentrate on making broad statements that sum up the most important insights of your research.

As a rule of thumb, your conclusion should not introduce new data, interpretations, or arguments.

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Depending on whether you are writing a thesis or dissertation, your length will vary. Generally, a conclusion should make up around 5–7% of your overall word count.

An empirical scientific study will often have a short conclusion, concisely stating the main findings and recommendations for future research. A humanities dissertation topic or systematic review , on the other hand, might require more space to conclude its analysis, tying all the previous sections together in an overall argument.

Your conclusion should begin with the main question that your thesis or dissertation aimed to address. This is your final chance to show that you’ve done what you set out to do, so make sure to formulate a clear, concise answer.

Don’t repeat a list of all the results that you already discussed
Do synthesize them into a final takeaway that the reader will remember.

An empirical thesis or dissertation conclusion may begin like this:

A case study –based thesis or dissertation conclusion may begin like this:

In the second example, the research aim is not directly restated, but rather added implicitly to the statement. To avoid repeating yourself, it is helpful to reformulate your aims and questions into an overall statement of what you did and how you did it.

Your conclusion is an opportunity to remind your reader why you took the approach you did, what you expected to find, and how well the results matched your expectations.

To avoid repetition , consider writing more reflectively here, rather than just writing a summary of each preceding section. Consider mentioning the effectiveness of your methodology , or perhaps any new questions or unexpected insights that arose in the process.

You can also mention any limitations of your research, but only if you haven’t already included these in the discussion. Don’t dwell on them at length, though—focus on the positives of your work.

While x limits the generalizability of the results, this approach provides new insight into y .
This research clearly illustrates x , but it also raises the question of y .

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You may already have made a few recommendations for future research in your discussion section, but the conclusion is a good place to elaborate and look ahead, considering the implications of your findings in both theoretical and practical terms.

Based on these conclusions, practitioners should consider …
To better understand the implications of these results, future studies could address …
Further research is needed to determine the causes of/effects of/relationship between …

When making recommendations for further research, be sure not to undermine your own work. Relatedly, while future studies might confirm, build on, or enrich your conclusions, they shouldn’t be required for your argument to feel complete. Your work should stand alone on its own merits.

Just as you should avoid too much self-criticism, you should also avoid exaggerating the applicability of your research. If you’re making recommendations for policy, business, or other practical implementations, it’s generally best to frame them as “shoulds” rather than “musts.” All in all, the purpose of academic research is to inform, explain, and explore—not to demand.

Make sure your reader is left with a strong impression of what your research has contributed to the state of your field.

Some strategies to achieve this include:

Returning to your problem statement to explain how your research helps solve the problem
Referring back to the literature review and showing how you have addressed a gap in knowledge
Discussing how your findings confirm or challenge an existing theory or assumption

Again, avoid simply repeating what you’ve already covered in the discussion in your conclusion. Instead, pick out the most important points and sum them up succinctly, situating your project in a broader context.

The end is near! Once you’ve finished writing your conclusion, it’s time to wrap up your thesis or dissertation with a few final steps:

It’s a good idea to write your abstract next, while the research is still fresh in your mind.
Next, make sure your reference list is complete and correctly formatted. To speed up the process, you can use our free APA citation generator .
Once you’ve added any appendices , you can create a table of contents and title page .
Finally, read through the whole document again to make sure your thesis is clearly written and free from language errors. You can proofread it yourself , ask a friend, or consider Scribbr’s proofreading and editing service .

Here is an example of how you can write your conclusion section. Notice how it includes everything mentioned above:

V. Conclusion

The current research aimed to identify acoustic speech characteristics which mark the beginning of an exacerbation in COPD patients.

The central questions for this research were as follows: 1. Which acoustic measures extracted from read speech differ between COPD speakers in stable condition and healthy speakers? 2. In what ways does the speech of COPD patients during an exacerbation differ from speech of COPD patients during stable periods?

All recordings were aligned using a script. Subsequently, they were manually annotated to indicate respiratory actions such as inhaling and exhaling. The recordings of 9 stable COPD patients reading aloud were then compared with the recordings of 5 healthy control subjects reading aloud. The results showed a significant effect of condition on the number of in- and exhalations per syllable, the number of non-linguistic in- and exhalations per syllable, and the ratio of voiced and silence intervals. The number of in- and exhalations per syllable and the number of non-linguistic in- and exhalations per syllable were higher for COPD patients than for healthy controls, which confirmed both hypotheses.

However, the higher ratio of voiced and silence intervals for COPD patients compared to healthy controls was not in line with the hypotheses. This unpredicted result might have been caused by the different reading materials or recording procedures for both groups, or by a difference in reading skills. Moreover, there was a trend regarding the effect of condition on the number of syllables per breath group. The number of syllables per breath group was higher for healthy controls than for COPD patients, which was in line with the hypothesis. There was no effect of condition on pitch, intensity, center of gravity, pitch variability, speaking rate, or articulation rate.

This research has shown that the speech of COPD patients in exacerbation differs from the speech of COPD patients in stable condition. This might have potential for the detection of exacerbations. However, sustained vowels rarely occur in spontaneous speech. Therefore, the last two outcome measures might have greater potential for the detection of beginning exacerbations, but further research on the different outcome measures and their potential for the detection of exacerbations is needed due to the limitations of the current study.

Checklist: Conclusion

I have clearly and concisely answered the main research question .

I have summarized my overall argument or key takeaways.

I have mentioned any important limitations of the research.

I have given relevant recommendations .

I have clearly explained what my research has contributed to my field.

I have not introduced any new data or arguments.

You've written a great conclusion! Use the other checklists to further improve your dissertation.

If you want to know more about AI for academic writing, AI tools, or research bias, make sure to check out some of our other articles with explanations and examples or go directly to our tools!

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In a thesis or dissertation, the discussion is an in-depth exploration of the results, going into detail about the meaning of your findings and citing relevant sources to put them in context.

The conclusion is more shorter and more general: it concisely answers your main research question and makes recommendations based on your overall findings.

While it may be tempting to present new arguments or evidence in your thesis or disseration conclusion , especially if you have a particularly striking argument you’d like to finish your analysis with, you shouldn’t. Theses and dissertations follow a more formal structure than this.

All your findings and arguments should be presented in the body of the text (more specifically in the discussion section and results section .) The conclusion is meant to summarize and reflect on the evidence and arguments you have already presented, not introduce new ones.

For a stronger dissertation conclusion , avoid including:

Important evidence or analysis that wasn’t mentioned in the discussion section and results section
Generic concluding phrases (e.g. “In conclusion …”)
Weak statements that undermine your argument (e.g., “There are good points on both sides of this issue.”)

Your conclusion should leave the reader with a strong, decisive impression of your work.

The conclusion of your thesis or dissertation shouldn’t take up more than 5–7% of your overall word count.

The conclusion of your thesis or dissertation should include the following:

A restatement of your research question
A summary of your key arguments and/or results
A short discussion of the implications of your research

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Scientific Methods

What is Hypothesis?

We have heard of many hypotheses which have led to great inventions in science. Assumptions that are made on the basis of some evidence are known as hypotheses. In this article, let us learn in detail about the hypothesis and the type of hypothesis with examples.

A hypothesis is an assumption that is made based on some evidence. This is the initial point of any investigation that translates the research questions into predictions. It includes components like variables, population and the relation between the variables. A research hypothesis is a hypothesis that is used to test the relationship between two or more variables.

Characteristics of Hypothesis

Following are the characteristics of the hypothesis:

The hypothesis should be clear and precise to consider it to be reliable.
If the hypothesis is a relational hypothesis, then it should be stating the relationship between variables.
The hypothesis must be specific and should have scope for conducting more tests.
The way of explanation of the hypothesis must be very simple and it should also be understood that the simplicity of the hypothesis is not related to its significance.

Sources of Hypothesis

Following are the sources of hypothesis:

The resemblance between the phenomenon.
Observations from past studies, present-day experiences and from the competitors.
Scientific theories.
General patterns that influence the thinking process of people.

Types of Hypothesis

There are six forms of hypothesis and they are:

Simple hypothesis
Complex hypothesis
Directional hypothesis
Non-directional hypothesis
Null hypothesis
Associative and casual hypothesis

Simple Hypothesis

It shows a relationship between one dependent variable and a single independent variable. For example – If you eat more vegetables, you will lose weight faster. Here, eating more vegetables is an independent variable, while losing weight is the dependent variable.

Complex Hypothesis

It shows the relationship between two or more dependent variables and two or more independent variables. Eating more vegetables and fruits leads to weight loss, glowing skin, and reduces the risk of many diseases such as heart disease.

Directional Hypothesis

It shows how a researcher is intellectual and committed to a particular outcome. The relationship between the variables can also predict its nature. For example- children aged four years eating proper food over a five-year period are having higher IQ levels than children not having a proper meal. This shows the effect and direction of the effect.

Non-directional Hypothesis

It is used when there is no theory involved. It is a statement that a relationship exists between two variables, without predicting the exact nature (direction) of the relationship.

Null Hypothesis

It provides a statement which is contrary to the hypothesis. It’s a negative statement, and there is no relationship between independent and dependent variables. The symbol is denoted by “H O ”.

Associative and Causal Hypothesis

Associative hypothesis occurs when there is a change in one variable resulting in a change in the other variable. Whereas, the causal hypothesis proposes a cause and effect interaction between two or more variables.

Examples of Hypothesis

Following are the examples of hypotheses based on their types:

Consumption of sugary drinks every day leads to obesity is an example of a simple hypothesis.
All lilies have the same number of petals is an example of a null hypothesis.
If a person gets 7 hours of sleep, then he will feel less fatigue than if he sleeps less. It is an example of a directional hypothesis.

Functions of Hypothesis

Following are the functions performed by the hypothesis:

Hypothesis helps in making an observation and experiments possible.
It becomes the start point for the investigation.
Hypothesis helps in verifying the observations.
It helps in directing the inquiries in the right direction.

How will Hypothesis help in the Scientific Method?

Researchers use hypotheses to put down their thoughts directing how the experiment would take place. Following are the steps that are involved in the scientific method:

Formation of question
Doing background research
Creation of hypothesis
Designing an experiment
Collection of data
Result analysis
Summarizing the experiment
Communicating the results

Frequently Asked Questions – FAQs

What is hypothesis.

A hypothesis is an assumption made based on some evidence.

Give an example of simple hypothesis?

What are the types of hypothesis.

Types of hypothesis are:

Associative and Casual hypothesis

State true or false: Hypothesis is the initial point of any investigation that translates the research questions into a prediction.

Define complex hypothesis..

A complex hypothesis shows the relationship between two or more dependent variables and two or more independent variables.

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COMMENTS

How to Write a Strong Hypothesis
5. Phrase your hypothesis in three ways. To identify the variables, you can write a simple prediction in if…then form. The first part of the sentence states the independent variable and the second part states the dependent variable. If a first-year student starts attending more lectures, then their exam scores will improve.
1.1: Statements and Conditional Statements
A conditional statement is a statement that can be written in the form "If P then Q ," where P and Q are sentences. For this conditional statement, P is called the hypothesis and Q is called the conclusion. Intuitively, "If P then Q " means that Q must be true whenever P is true.
What Is a Hypothesis and How Do I Write One?
Merriam Webster defines a hypothesis as "an assumption or concession made for the sake of argument.". In other words, a hypothesis is an educated guess. Scientists make a reasonable assumption--or a hypothesis--then design an experiment to test whether it's true or not.
2.11: If Then Statements
The conclusion is the result of a hypothesis. Figure 2.11.1 2.11. 1. If-then statements might not always be written in the "if-then" form. Here are some examples of conditional statements: Statement 1: If you work overtime, then you'll be paid time-and-a-half. Statement 2: I'll wash the car if the weather is nice.
How to Write Hypothesis Test Conclusions (With Examples)
A hypothesis test is used to test whether or not some hypothesis about a population parameter is true.. To perform a hypothesis test in the real world, researchers obtain a random sample from the population and perform a hypothesis test on the sample data, using a null and alternative hypothesis:. Null Hypothesis (H 0): The sample data occurs purely from chance.
Research Hypothesis: Definition, Types, Examples and Quick Tips
3. Simple hypothesis. A simple hypothesis is a statement made to reflect the relation between exactly two variables. One independent and one dependent. Consider the example, "Smoking is a prominent cause of lung cancer." The dependent variable, lung cancer, is dependent on the independent variable, smoking. 4.
What is a Research Hypothesis: How to Write it, Types, and Examples
It seeks to explore and understand a particular aspect of the research subject. In contrast, a research hypothesis is a specific statement or prediction that suggests an expected relationship between variables. It is formulated based on existing knowledge or theories and guides the research design and data analysis. 7.
The scientific method (article)
The scientific method. At the core of biology and other sciences lies a problem-solving approach called the scientific method. The scientific method has five basic steps, plus one feedback step: Make an observation. Ask a question. Form a hypothesis, or testable explanation. Make a prediction based on the hypothesis.
How to Write a Great Hypothesis
What is a hypothesis and how can you write a great one for your research? A hypothesis is a tentative statement about the relationship between two or more variables that can be tested empirically. Find out how to formulate a clear, specific, and testable hypothesis with examples and tips from Verywell Mind, a trusted source of psychology and mental health information.
Writing a Research Paper Conclusion
The conclusion of a research paper restates the research problem, summarizes your arguments or findings, and discusses the implications. ... showing how each of them contributes to proving your thesis. You may also mention any counterarguments you addressed, emphasizing why your thesis holds up against them, particularly if your argument is a ...
5.2
5.2 - Writing Hypotheses. The first step in conducting a hypothesis test is to write the hypothesis statements that are going to be tested. For each test you will have a null hypothesis ( H 0) and an alternative hypothesis ( H a ). Null Hypothesis. The statement that there is not a difference in the population (s), denoted as H 0.
The Scientific Method
CONCLUSION. The final step in the scientific method is the conclusion. This is a summary of the experiment's results, and how those results match up to your hypothesis. You have two options for your conclusions: based on your results, either: (1) YOU CAN REJECT the hypothesis, or (2) YOU CAN NOT REJECT the hypothesis. This is an important point!
Scientific hypothesis
hypothesis. science. scientific hypothesis, an idea that proposes a tentative explanation about a phenomenon or a narrow set of phenomena observed in the natural world. The two primary features of a scientific hypothesis are falsifiability and testability, which are reflected in an "If…then" statement summarizing the idea and in the ...
Conditional Statement: Definition, Truth Table, Examples
A conditional statement is a statement that is written in the "If p, then q" format. Here, the statement p is called the hypothesis and q is called the conclusion. It is a fundamental concept in logic and mathematics. Conditional statement symbol: p → q. A conditional statement consists of two parts.
Hypothesis Testing
There are 5 main steps in hypothesis testing: State your research hypothesis as a null hypothesis and alternate hypothesis (H o) and (H a or H 1 ). Collect data in a way designed to test the hypothesis. Perform an appropriate statistical test. Decide whether to reject or fail to reject your null hypothesis. Present the findings in your results ...
IXL
Test prep. Awards. Improve your math knowledge with free questions in "Identify hypotheses and conclusions" and thousands of other math skills.
How to identify the hypothesis and conclusion of a conditional statement
👉 Learn how to label the parts of a conditional statement. A conditional statement is an if-then statement connecting a hypothesis (p) and the conclusion (q...
Research Hypothesis In Psychology: Types, & Examples
Examples. A research hypothesis, in its plural form "hypotheses," is a specific, testable prediction about the anticipated results of a study, established at its outset. It is a key component of the scientific method. Hypotheses connect theory to data and guide the research process towards expanding scientific understanding.
What is a Hypothesis
Definition: Hypothesis is an educated guess or proposed explanation for a phenomenon, based on some initial observations or data. It is a tentative statement that can be tested and potentially proven or disproven through further investigation and experimentation. Hypothesis is often used in scientific research to guide the design of experiments ...
Hypothesis Testing
The Four Steps in Hypothesis Testing. STEP 1: State the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses, Ho and Ha. STEP 2: Obtain a random sample, collect relevant data, and check whether the data meet the conditions under which the test can be used. If the conditions are met, summarize the data using a test statistic.
How to Write a Thesis or Dissertation Conclusion
Step 2: Summarize and reflect on your research. Step 3: Make future recommendations. Step 4: Emphasize your contributions to your field. Step 5: Wrap up your thesis or dissertation. Full conclusion example. Conclusion checklist. Other interesting articles. Frequently asked questions about conclusion sections.
What is Hypothesis
Functions of Hypothesis. Following are the functions performed by the hypothesis: Hypothesis helps in making an observation and experiments possible. It becomes the start point for the investigation. Hypothesis helps in verifying the observations. It helps in directing the inquiries in the right direction.

1.1: Statements and Conditional Statements

Progress Check 1.1: Statements

How Do We Decide If a Statement Is True or False?

Techniques of Exploration

Progress Check 1.2: Explorations

Conditional Statements

Example 1.3:

Progress Check 1.4: xplorations with Conditional Statements

Further Remarks about Conditional Statements

Progress Check 1.5: Working with a Conditional Statement

Closure Properties of Number Systems

Example 1.6: Closure

Progress Check 1.7: Closure Properties

Choose Your Test

What Is a Hypothesis?

Independent and Dependent Variables

Elements of a Good Hypothesis

Writing Your Hypothesis

The Two Types of Hypotheses

#1: If-Then Hypotheses

#2: Null Hypotheses

4 Tips to Write the Best Hypothesis

#1: Plausibility

#2: Defined Concepts

#3: Observability

#4: Generalizability

Hypothesis Testing Examples

Experiment #1: Students Studying Outside (Writing a Hypothesis)

Experiment #2: The Cupcake Store (Forming a Simple Experiment)

Experiment #3: Backyard Bird Feeders (Integrating Multiple Variables and Rejecting the If-Then Hypothesis)

Experiment #4: In-Class Survey (Including an Alternative Hypothesis)

Key Takeaways: Hypothesis Writing

What’s Next?

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2.11: If Then Statements

Conditional Statements

Additional Resources

How to Write Hypothesis Test Conclusions (With Examples)

Example 1: Reject the Null Hypothesis Conclusion

Example 2: Fail to Reject the Null Hypothesis Conclusion

Additional Resources

Published by Zach

The Craft of Writing a Strong Hypothesis

Table of Contents

What is a Hypothesis?

Different Types of Hypotheses‌

1. Null hypothesis

2. Alternative hypothesis

3. Simple hypothesis

4. Complex hypothesis

5. Associative and casual hypothesis

6. Empirical hypothesis

7. Statistical hypothesis

Characteristics of a Good Hypothesis

Separating a Hypothesis from a Prediction

Finally, How to Write a Hypothesis

1. Be clear about your research question

2. Carry out a recce

3. Create a 3-dimensional hypothesis

4. Write the first draft

5. Proof your hypothesis

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

2. What is an example of hypothesis?

3. What is an example of null hypothesis?

4. What are the types of research?

5. How to write a hypothesis?

6. What are the 2 types of hypothesis?

7. Difference between research question and research hypothesis?

8. What is plural for hypothesis?

9. What is the red queen hypothesis?

10. Who is known as the father of null hypothesis?

11. When to reject null hypothesis?

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