thesis on digital currency

Dynamic Roles of Digital Currency: An Exploration from Interactive Processes: Difference, Time, and Perspective

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T1 - Dynamic Roles of Digital Currency

T2 - An Exploration from Interactive Processes: Difference, Time, and Perspective

AU - Guo, Xiaochun

N2 - Digital currency has emerged as a new phenomenon that brought about many technological innovations and social-economic implications. In the last decades, the growing popularity of digital currency, particularly cryptocurrency, has attracted attention from various parties. The multiple facets of cryptocurrency induce controversial debates. So far, there is no mutual agreement on how to perceive, use and govern digital currencies globally, and there are huge divergences in ways of treating them. This new emerging phenomenon is gradually mixing and eroding the existing mechanisms. Meanwhile, the existing system is experiencing incremental changes to adapt to the newness brought forward by digital currencies. In order to understand such dynamic and complex processes of digital currency growth, this dissertation investigates the different roles of digital currency, particularly cryptocurrency, during its development path through the interactions with existing systems. This thesis aims to follow the development of (crypto)currency from the past to the present and extend the present development into future projection to explore the relationships between the existing mechanism and (crypto)currency. In this dissertation, I draw upon various theories of money to analyze digital currency and applied both qualitative and quantitative methods to explore the dynamic roles of digital currency. First, this thesis uses rich archive data to give a thick description of the evolution path of cryptocurrency through horizontal comparisons between the Western world1 and China. Second, this thesis combines second-hand and first-hand data to conduct vertical analysis, which integrates the past, present, and future standing points to consider the relationships and interactions between the internal fundamentals and external environments of digital currency. Additionally, empirical data have also been employed to explore the patterns and market dynamics of cryptocurrency evolutions.

AB - Digital currency has emerged as a new phenomenon that brought about many technological innovations and social-economic implications. In the last decades, the growing popularity of digital currency, particularly cryptocurrency, has attracted attention from various parties. The multiple facets of cryptocurrency induce controversial debates. So far, there is no mutual agreement on how to perceive, use and govern digital currencies globally, and there are huge divergences in ways of treating them. This new emerging phenomenon is gradually mixing and eroding the existing mechanisms. Meanwhile, the existing system is experiencing incremental changes to adapt to the newness brought forward by digital currencies. In order to understand such dynamic and complex processes of digital currency growth, this dissertation investigates the different roles of digital currency, particularly cryptocurrency, during its development path through the interactions with existing systems. This thesis aims to follow the development of (crypto)currency from the past to the present and extend the present development into future projection to explore the relationships between the existing mechanism and (crypto)currency. In this dissertation, I draw upon various theories of money to analyze digital currency and applied both qualitative and quantitative methods to explore the dynamic roles of digital currency. First, this thesis uses rich archive data to give a thick description of the evolution path of cryptocurrency through horizontal comparisons between the Western world1 and China. Second, this thesis combines second-hand and first-hand data to conduct vertical analysis, which integrates the past, present, and future standing points to consider the relationships and interactions between the internal fundamentals and external environments of digital currency. Additionally, empirical data have also been employed to explore the patterns and market dynamics of cryptocurrency evolutions.

M3 - PhD thesis

SN - 9788775681198

T3 - PhD Series

BT - Dynamic Roles of Digital Currency

PB - Copenhagen Business School [Phd]

CY - Frederiksberg

Bachelor/Master Thesis

Exploring central bank digital currencies implementations.

By 2023, nearly one hundred countries have been discussing how to design and introduce national central bank-issued digital currency (CBDC). As they eagerly explore the potential benefits of a CBDC (e.g., financial inclusion, increased efficiency, cross-border payments enhancement, etc.), it is imperative to turn our attention to one of the most important aspects of this evolution – privacy.

In this thesis, we’d like to explore different CBDC implementations and discuss how they each implement privacy features and how they compare. Additionally, we’d like to see how they could fit into architectures proposed by central banks.

[1] S. Allen, S. Capkun, I. Eyal, G. Fanti, B. A. Ford, J. Grimmelmann, A. Juels, K. Kostiainen, S. Meiklejohn, A. Miller, E. Prasad, K. Wüst, and F. Zhang, “Design choices for central bank digital currency: Policy and technical considerations,” Working Paper 27634, National Bureau of Economic Research, August 2020.

[2] E. Androulaki, J. Camenisch, A. D. Caro, M. Dubovitskaya, K. Elkhiyaoui, and B. Tackmann, “Privacy-preserving auditable token payments in a permissioned blockchain system,” in AFT, pp. 255–267, ACM, 2020.

[3] D. Chaum and T. Moser, “eCash 2.0.” Unpublished, 2022.

[4] A. Tomescu, A. Bhat, B. Applebaum, I. Abraham, G. Gueta, B. Pinkas, and A. Yanai, “UTT: decentralized ecash with accountable privacy,” IACR Cryptol. ePrint Arch., p. 452, 2022.

[5] K. Wüst, K. Kostiainen, V. Capkun, and S. Capkun, “PRCash: Fast, private and regulated transactions for digital currencies,” in Financial Cryptography, vol. 11598 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pp. 158–178, Springer, 2019.

[6] K. Wüst, K. Kostiainen, N. Delius, and S. Capkun, “Platypus: A central bank digital currency with unlinkable transactions and privacy-preserving regulation,” in CCS, pp. 2947–2960, ACM, 2022.

Contact François-Xavier Wicht for more information.

Nature of the project: theory 100%..

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Central bank digital currency (CBDC) : an explorative study on its impact and implications for monetary policy and the banking sector

Brokke, olav gunnarson jevne ; engen, nils-erik, master thesis.

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A New Era of Digital Money

By Tobias Adrian and Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli

Photo: iStock/metamorworks

Digital forms of money could be a boon for emerging market and lower-income economies if the transition is well managed and regulated

Digital money has the potential to transform the financial sector. Emerging markets and lower-income countries stand to gain the most from this dramatic shift. Broad and inexpensive access to digital money and phone-based transactions could open the door to financial services for 1.7 billion people without traditional bank accounts. And countries may grow increasingly connected, facilitating trade and market integration. The real-world impact is significant.

But with any opportunity comes risk. The passage to this new world could exclude those on the other side of the digital divide. It also opens the door to fragmentation, currency substitution, and loss of policy effectiveness. The transition must be well managed, coordinated, and soundly regulated.

What is digital money?

Digital money is the digital representation of value. The public sector can issue digital money called central bank digital currency —essentially a digital version of cash that can be stored and transferred using an internet or mobile application. The private sector can also issue digital money. Some forms can be redeemed for cash at a fixed face value. These are fully backed with very safe and liquid assets and are usually referred to as e-money . Stablecoins can be a form of e-money, but also come in other designs whose value is more volatile. Crypto assets , such as Bitcoin, are issued in their own denominations and are especially volatile—too much to be considered a form of digital money (they are usually considered an investment asset). Click here for a detailed discussion of different forms of digital money.

Emerging markets lead the way

Consider a worker in the United States. In the near future, an employer could deposit her paycheck in a digital wallet, allowing her to send money to relatives in Guatemala, the Philippines, or any other country more cheaply and efficiently. Fees for wiring money often take up to 7 percent of the value of a transaction, and the World Bank estimates that cutting fees to 2 percent could give a $16 billion a year boost to remittances to low-income countries.

This future is not distant. Private sector innovation in emerging markets has already made a mark in the area of mobile money. The M-pesa mobile money transfer service, which started in Kenya, is being replicated in dozens of countries in Africa and Asia. It has brought payments to many without bank accounts—but with a flip phone in their pocket—and has opened the door to other financial services, like savings and credit products.

Today, there are a billion registered mobile money accounts across 95 countries, with close to $2 billion transacted through these accounts every day. Sub-Saharan Africa is a leader in mobile money, accounting for almost half of mobile money accounts worldwide. The widespread use of mobile phones has made this possible. Digital identities, which many countries have rolled out, are another important innovation. These digital versions of passports allow mobile money providers to onboard customers at low cost while complying with local regulations.

The public sector too is taking steps to provide a digital payment infrastructure in emerging markets. The Bahamas is the first country in the world with a central bank digital currency (a digital form of a country’s currency). Called the “ sand dollar ,” it will increase financial inclusion for inhabitants spread out across the country’s 700 islands, where banking services such as cash machines are not always available.

Other countries are not far behind. The most ambitious project is being piloted by China’s central bank. If the e-Renminbi experiment is successful, it could boost digitalization, innovation, and financial inclusion in one of the world’s largest and most vibrant economies, possibly encouraging other countries to follow suit.

Maintaining a balance

But many of these potential benefits require careful and farsighted policy support. To start, new infrastructure is essential to allow poorer households in isolated areas to connect to new digital payment services. Global satellite networks (Starlink, OneWeb, and others) are expected to provide widely accessible broadband services, including to lower-income countries, as soon as 2022. But a financial inclusion strategy cannot rely on a signal simply falling from the sky.

A synchronized infrastructure investment push is needed including to broaden internet access to poorer and remote areas. In fact, when many countries act at the same time, public infrastructure investment can help lift growth domestically and abroad through trade linkages. These investments are necessary to support a viable digital payment strategy.

In many countries, financial inclusion may mean trade-offs when it comes to privacy and competition policy. Digital payment companies are increasingly capturing and monetizing consumer data. Without collateral to offer, poorer households and microenterprises can offer their data, but at the cost of their privacy. Regulation will have to strike just the right balance, including to incentivize market entry of new payment companies while limiting their dominance.

In fact, countries will need to ramp up regulatory and supervisory capacity more generally before payment innovations hit the market. Regulation and careful supervision are key to anchoring trust in new digital forms of money. However, questions still abound. Payment providers may well be required to fully back coin issuance with safe and liquid assets, but which assets? Should these be kept in commercial banks or perhaps even in central banks? What backstops might the state be prepared to offer? And what if the digital money is being offered by a foreign firm—how should regulators cooperate across borders? These questions are new and need to be pondered carefully.  

Clear legal frameworks are also essential. Central bank–issued digital currencies will likely require adaptation to central bank law and monetary law. And public law must clarify the legal status of privately issued money. Should new arrangements be treated as electronic money, bank deposits, securities, commodities, or something else? Answers to these questions will have enormous bearing on the development of digital money. For instance, classifying a form of digital money as a security will significantly complicate its exchange, given the complexity of securities regulation.

Other risks must also be contained. New digital forms of money must stand up to cyberattacks, outages, technical glitches, fraud risks, and faulty algorithms. And without proper regulation, digital money could be a virtual safe haven for criminals’ illicit financial transactions. Effective implementation of a robust framework to combat money laundering and the financing of terrorism is needed. However, digital money also brings regulatory opportunities, such as more effective real-time data analytics and monitoring.

Current regulatory approaches and legal frameworks are fragmented. There is little guidance, and country circumstances differ significantly. The IMF has a role to play in providing policy advice to countries and helping institutions develop sound regulatory approaches and share best practices.  

In their effort to join, benefit from, and regulate the digital money revolution, countries must not lose sight of the bigger picture. Regulatory and legal frameworks, as well as central banks’ decision to offer their own digital currencies, will affect private sector participation and innovation. The role of banks may change if they face more intense competition for funding as clients debate whether to exchange their deposits for the potentially safer currency of central banks. Careful decisions must also ensure that new forms of digital money are environmentally sustainable—that the energy they require is kept in check. The path to digital money adoption must be guided by a clear and responsible vision of tomorrow’s broader payment, financial, economic, and environmental landscape.

A global approach

The bigger picture actually extends far beyond each country’s borders. The digital money revolution will happen on a global scale. Emerging markets and lower-income countries will be affected by the introduction of digital forms of money in larger, more advanced economies. They must be aware of these changes, and the IMF will stand beside them to ensure that the international monetary system continues to work for all countries.

The lower costs of obtaining, storing, and spending digital money could make it easier for people and companies to substitute their domestic currency with a more stable currency, especially in countries with high inflation and volatile exchange rates. This practice is already widespread—foreign currency deposits exceed 50 percent in more than 18 percent of countries worldwide. As this level rises, the home country loses control over monetary policy. This has a disproportionate impact on poorer and more vulnerable households, which typically find it harder to diversify their savings to protect against volatile inflation.

Policies are currently being explored. In countries where there is risk of capital outflows, questions arise about the technical feasibility—and policy desirability—of limiting foreign digital currency transactions and holdings. It may be possible to agree on design principles that allow country authorities to set basic parameters for wallets and networks to limit currency substitution. However, these design principles must be coordinated at the global level to ensure that they meet the needs of all countries and that they are widely adopted to limit regulatory arbitrage. This is another area where the IMF can help through its analysis and convening power.

The question also arises of whether existing capital flow management measures—such as taxes on purchasing foreign currency—may be circumvented by digital forms of money. Most IMF member countries, particularly emerging markets and lower-income countries, use some form of capital flow management. Existing regulations and implementation practices must evolve so that capital flow management measures remain strong following the introduction of digital money.

Digital money would also likely increase gross capital flows as transaction costs diminish and financial products become more widely available. This comes with both pros and cons. Markets should become more integrated, offering risk-sharing and hedging opportunities for local households and firms. Yet the risk of financial contagion would also increase, as would the danger of balance of payments problems, since swings in asset valuations are amplified as the stock of foreign assets increases.

Finally, the risk of fragmentation and of a global digital divide is stark. Regional arrangements to settle digital money could proliferate, driven by countries’ desire for autonomy. Such arrangements could become instruments of geopolitical interests and forces—to avoid or impose bilateral sanctions—and could limit currency convertibility.

Yet there are also opportunities. Digital money could be leveraged to foster integration and interoperability of payment systems. New solutions must be explored, such as multilateral settlement and exchange platforms, as well as common norms or principles for the design of digital money to facilitate cross-border payments, such as remittance flows, which are essential for many lower-income countries. The IMF is actively working with the international community—member countries and other international organizations—to defend the integration of payment systems and oppose their fragmentation.

The IMF will play a key role in the new era of digital money. The organization was created to promote international monetary cooperation and oversee the stability of the international monetary system, as well as contribute to countries’ economic and financial stability. Digital money must be regulated, designed, and provided in a way that allows countries to maintain control over monetary policy, financial conditions, capital account openness, and foreign exchange regimes. Payment systems must grow increasingly integrated, not fragmented, and must work to help all countries guard against a digital divide.

Much remains to be done, but the opportunities are immense, to the extent the risks are carefully managed. The key to building a brighter future is cooperation—between the private and public sectors domestically and national authorities and organizations internationally. The IMF, with its near universal membership, stands ready to play its part in this momentous endeavor.

TOBIAS ADRIAN is the financial counsellor and director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department.

TOMMASO MANCINI-GRIFFOLI is division chief in the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department.

PATRICK GAULE is a senior lecturer in economics at the University of Bath in the United Kingdom.

FABIO BERZAGHI is a researcher at the Laboratory of Climate and Environment Sciences in Gif-sur-Yvette, France.

Opinions expressed in articles and other materials are those of the authors; they do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF and its Executive Board, or IMF policy.

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Evaluation of Central Bank-issued Digital Currency (CBDC) Implementation Designs using Transaction Cost Economics Perspective

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The advancement in digital technology provides room for innovations in many sectors, including in the financial sector. The development of digital currencies is one example of digital advancements in this sector. Digital currencies can take many forms, and cryptocurrency is one of the most popular forms of digital currencies today. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (or altcoins) have slowly been adopted around the world as a means of payment. However, Bitcoin and altcoins are not issued by the central banks or other central authorities, making it difficult to regulate. At the same time, in several countries, the use of cash is declining to a very low rate. As the response to these economic phenomena, central banks in some countries are investigating the possibility of introducing their own version of digital currency which is called central bank-issued digital currency or CBDC. This research shows how to implement transaction cost economics (TCE) framework to characterize transaction costs in several CBDC design options through in-depth semi-structured interview sessions. The interviewees were the experts from central banks, commercial bank, regulatory bodies, and relevant NGOs in the European developed economies. The results of the interview sessions showed several findings. First, according to the experts, there are three main CBDC design options: Retail CBDC, Wholesale CBDC, and Full-reserve Depository Banks CBDC. Second, among the three transactional dimensions of TCE (uncertainty, transaction frequency, and asset specificity), the uncertainty aspect provides a significant contribution to overall transaction costs. Third, the central bank and commercial banks are the ones that bear most of the transaction costs, especially in Retail CBDC design option, while the households and non-financial institutions do not need to bear any transaction costs.

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The Race To Digital Money: Introducing A Digital Euro

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The development of central bank digital currencies : why central banks are developing their own central bank digital currencies?

Vuolli, tuomas; habtemariam, temesghen (2023).

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Selaa kokoelmaa, henkilökunnalle.

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The issuance of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC): legal and economic challenges

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Cashless: Is Digital Currency the Future of Finance?

If the U.S. wants to future-proof banking, then a digital dollar could be a solution.

April 17, 2024

Finance experts like Darrell Duffie see digital currency as an inevitability. “It’s hard to imagine that 100 years from now, people will be reaching into their pockets and pulling out grubby bits of paper,” he says.

As the Adams Distinguished Professor of Management and Professor of Finance at Stanford Graduate School of Business, Duffie ’s research centers on banking, financial market infrastructure, and fintech payments. And with digitization already transforming the way money moves around the world, Duffie is particularly interested in how digital currency, whether developed privately or issued by governments, promises to revolutionize finance even further. In this episode of If/Then: Business, Leadership, Society , he explores how it could even expand economic opportunity for people left out of the current financial system.

Duffie’s research has tracked countries’ development and rollout of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). In contrast to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, a CBDC is backed by a central bank and is essentially a digital version of a country’s fiat currency. “Virtually all countries are exploring a central bank digital currency for potential use,” he says, and some, like China and the Bahamas, have already implemented them. This shift, Duffie believes, could offer significant benefits over the current financial system by sidestepping the high fees and inefficient timelines associated with moving money, particularly across borders.

Duffie notes that a well-designed CBDC could also address the issue of financial inclusion. “Millions of Americans do not have a bank account. They’re off the grid in terms of payments,” he says. “Maybe this technology would allow many underprivileged Americans to get access to the payment system.”

Despite the political challenges of transitioning away from traditional currencies, Duffie believes digital currencies are on the horizon. The challenge, he says, is striking the right regulatory balance between fostering innovation and mitigating risks. As this episode of If/Then explores, if the U.S. wants to future-proof banking, then a digital dollar could be a solution.

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If/Then is a podcast from Stanford Graduate School of Business that examines research findings that can help us navigate the complex issues we face in business, leadership, and society. Each episode features an interview with a Stanford GSB faculty member.

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Note: Transcripts are generated by machine and lightly edited by humans. They may contain errors.

Kevin Cool: If the U.S. wants to future-proof banking, then a digital dollar could be the solution.

Dawn Sands: You travel to the states, you hear your friends or family members talking about various wallets. These Venmos, these cash apps that they use and transfer money, and you’re like, oh, okay. And then you hear a sand dollar and you’re like, okay, now The Bahamas is catching up.

Kevin Cool: Dawn Sands owns a restaurant in Nassau called NRG Nutrition ready to go in 2020. She was one of the first businesses to start using the country’s new digital currency. That’s a way of paying for transactions electronically, a little like Bitcoin, but backed by the country’s central bank in The Bahamas. It’s called the sand dollar.

Dawn Sands: I did not operate in the cryptocurrency space whatsoever. In the beginning. I was very confused about that. I was more trying to understand the technology behind it. It was a blockchain for me, the sand dollar, it just took a shape and form in my brain. Just the way I hold my credit card. I’ll hold my phone as a wallet and my money is boxed by the Central Bank.

Kevin Cool: Dawn has a good reason to want an alternative to conventional banking.

Dawn Sands: I don’t know if it’s the same where you’re from, but in The Bahamas, banking is a challenge from opening. An account can take you days, and when I say days, you can sit at the bank for literally six to eight hours and then get an account number days from there. My money sits in the bank and my bank is always being hacked. Yeah, my bank account was just hacked the other day. It got hit $4,000 and I’m still waiting to be paid.

Kevin Cool: Her frustrations with banks make her excited about the sand dollars benefits.

Dawn Sands: For example, if you’re going to allow me to receive a sand dollar, I don’t have to pay a fee. Literally, there’s a bank over here that charges $5 for every a hundred I think it is that you deposit. If I can use more than I can deposit less of the bank, I guess that’s what the future is going to look like. If we continue on the path.

Kevin Cool: The United States isn’t getting its own digital currency anytime soon, but its proponents say it will come with many consumer benefits. If it does, it’s already a reality in 11 countries, including China and 130 countries are exploring it. What do these developments mean for the future of banking and finance? Will the U.S. dollar keep its status as the world’s standard if it lags behind on a digital currency? This is if then a podcast from Stanford Graduate School of Business where we examine research findings that can help us navigate the complex issues facing us in business, leadership, and society. I’m Kevin. Cool. Senior editor at the GSB. Today we speak with finance professor Daryl Duffy.

Darrell Duffie: It’s hard to imagine that a hundred years from now, people will be reaching into their pockets and pulling out grubby bits of paper.

Kevin Cool: The focus this episode, if the U.S. wants to future-proof banking than a digital dollar, could be the solution. What do we mean, first of all by a digital currency? How do we differentiate that, say from Bitcoin?

Darrell Duffie: So Bitcoin, because it’s expensive and takes time to use for making payments, it’s not really a very good form of money for making payments, and most importantly, if I promise to pay you for whatever, a cup of coffee or a new car, the money that I send may be worth less than what we agreed by the time it gets to you, because Bitcoin is moving around a lot.

Kevin Cool: It’s a lot of volatility. Yeah.

Darrell Duffie: Price volatility is very high. It’s not that reliable. We, for many years will probably continue to just use our bank accounts for those things, but people are now talking about going to a new world of central bank digital currency or what’s sometimes called a digital dollar. What does that mean? First of all, it means that instead of paying money out of your own bank account at wherever you bank Chase or Wells Fargo, you’ll be paying money out of your account with the Fed, the Federal Reserve Bank. That basically is the central bank for the United States.

Kevin Cool: Let me just clarify. When you say you would be paying from your account, I don’t have an account with the Federal Reserve right now. How would that work?

Darrell Duffie: Well, you don’t have an account at the Federal Reserve now because we don’t have digital dollars right now. The only actors in our economy that have accounts at the Federal Reserve are large financial institutions. Now, we’re not going to knock on the door of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and ask them for an account. They’re going to delegate that operational side to a commercial bank or to another payment service provider like PayPal or somebody else. So we’ll call Wells Fargo or PayPal and say, would you provide us with some digital dollars that you’ll hold on our behalf at the Fed?

Kevin Cool: What advantage would there be to having a digital dollar rather than just having my bank account at Wells Fargo where I have dollars that I can access digitally?

Darrell Duffie: Well, the question you asked has been the central question under debate for the last five years or so in the us, but there are advantages and disadvantages. Let’s run through a few of them. The Fed doesn’t go bankrupt as opposed to some banks.

Kevin Cool: I certainly hope not.

Darrell Duffie: Well, Silicon Valley Bank went bankrupt, and if you had your account at Silicon Valley Bank rather than at the Fed, you might’ve lost money. Another reason might be that the digital dollar be built on a blockchain like Bitcoin that would allow you to buy things automatically and not fear that you wouldn’t get what you bought. For example, if you were to buy Euros with your digital dollars, doing it on a blockchain means that code software can guarantee that you will receive your Euros if your dollars are taken, as opposed to the current world in which your dollars go somewhere and maybe the Euros that you bought don’t come back to you. Currently, banks are not providing a service that guarantees those payments.

Kevin Cool: What are the impediments? Is it a philosophical policy difference that would be getting in the way here, or what would be the impediments for the United States to do this right away or in the short term?

Darrell Duffie: I think there are two major impediments. Both are partly political. One of them is the concern about privacy. There’s a suspicion by some that if your money is held on account at the Fed rather than your commercial bank, that you will lose privacy over your payments. It’ll be a so-called Big brother situation in which the government could it’s suggested spy on your payments and take advantage of that information to your detriment

Kevin Cool: Because the government has visibility now into essentially all of your transactions, right?

Darrell Duffie: Well, today, they’re not supposed to get access to your transactions unless you’re doing something suspicious, and in that case, your bank is supposed to report you. Last year there were 4 million of those suspicious activity reports or SARS sent to the government by banks. Now, a small fraction of those were actually illegal payments, but the government already has access whenever there’s some potential for a suspicious payment. It’s suggested that by some, not me actually, that if there were a digital dollar, the situation would be much worse because instead of asking banks to send that information, the government supposedly would have direct access to it. There’s a misconception there. First, it’s not necessary that that technology provides information to the government that it couldn’t already get, and secondly, the way that U.S. politics work, the Fed would almost certainly need to guarantee that it couldn’t access all of your payment information or give it to the government, which is a different proposition. So there is a reason to be concerned about privacy, but that’s one of the reasons that Central Bank digital currencies in some countries are going to be delayed until people are confident.

Kevin Cool: So would you say this is inevitable at some point, or not necessarily?

Darrell Duffie: It’s hard to imagine that a hundred years from now people will be reaching into their pockets and pulling out grubby bits of paper.

Kevin Cool: Well, I hope pennies at least are gone by then. Don’t give me to start it on pennies.

Darrell Duffie: I imagine eventually we’ll be using digital dollars and not using paper money to the extent that we use any government currency.

Kevin Cool: Why don’t you just give us sort of a lay of the land in terms of what countries are doing this, how far along are they and so on.

Darrell Duffie: Virtually all countries are exploring a central bank digital currency for potential use. Some of them have gotten to the point where they’ve actually developed or in the course of developing the technology, which is not easy. Some of them have gotten further to the point of piloting a central bank digital currency, and some very few have actually released a central bank digital currency for general use. Like Bahamas is one example, but Bahamas is a small country, and even in Bahamas, a small fraction of money is held in the form of their digital currency, which is called the sand dollar

Kevin Cool: Appropriately.

Darrell Duffie: The largest country that’s well along the way with a central bank digital currency is China. In around 2020, China began piloting a major piloting of its central bank digital currency. It’s only a fraction of 1% of the total amount of money issued by the central bank. Most of it is in paper form. People in China already had access to a really whizzbang electronic payment systems, the two most popular of which are called Alipay and WeChat Pay, which are private sector payment systems put up by two of their largest tech companies. It would be as though Amazon or Google or Facebook or Microsoft were to make available digital payment accounts to everyone and allow you to pay into and out of those accounts. You can imagine that would be quite a powerful option in the United States as well. But in China, those two payment systems account for more than 90% of urban payments.

Kevin Cool: Now, the dollar historically has been essentially the reserve standard for global business. Is the fact that the Chinese government is pursuing this, an effort to encroach on the dollar as that standard.

Darrell Duffie: That’s the central question of a report that I worked on as part of a large committee of experts a few years ago. China’s new central bank digital currency does not threaten the dominance of the U.S. dollar as you described it. It remains and will remain for decades. The go-to currency for international finance, whether it’s central banks holding dollars in their foreign exchange reserves or it’s banks making cross-border payments to each other or invoicing for goods and services or in the foreign exchange market, trading one currency for another, the dollar is by far and away dominant and will remain dominant for decades.

Kevin Cool: For decades. You are listening to if then a podcast from Stanford Graduate School of Business will continue our conversation after the break. The broader experience with cryptocurrency is quite volatile, obviously. I mean, we just saw the whole implosion with FTX and there’ve been other bad actors in this space. What have we learned about cryptocurrency at this point, about its effects on society, its potential advantages in the future? What are we supposed to think about cryptocurrency right now?

Darrell Duffie: It’s very early stages, Kevin. It’s kind of like the Wild West or the beginning of the.com era where the potential is great, but it’s a bit unruly. The U.S. government is lagging relative to other countries and setting out the rules for cryptocurrencies and digital assets more generally. And until those rules are laid down pretty clearly, you can expect a very bumpy ride. In terms of adherence to the law or what is the law, the questions about what is the law that is, you can expect lots of litigation, you can expect some collapses like the ones that we’ve seen, and FTX was only the most spectacular example, but there have been many others. What we should be thinking about is what are the applications of this new technology that could help Americans or people generally, and how can those be safeguarded? How can we avoid losing those opportunities either by failing to regulate or by overregulating?

It’s a balance, but consider the opportunities. Like I mentioned earlier, if you can make payments on a blockchain, you can assure the safety of payments. You can arrange for payments automatically without fear. If the software is reliable, you could potentially provide payments much more broadly in the economy. That issue is called financial inclusion. The United States suffers from millions of Americans who do not have a bank account. They’re off the grid in terms of payments. Maybe this technology would allow many underprivileged Americans to get access to the payment system. Right now, if you’re, let’s say making a remittance, you’re taking a huge loss off the top where the remittance company will hack off whatever, six, 8% to send your money to your family and wherever it is, Philippines, Mexico,

Kevin Cool: Because you don’t have a bank account,

Darrell Duffie: Because you don’t have a bank account or because you’re afraid of your bank, or maybe you don’t want somebody to know that you’re making a payment. So I mentioned there’s a balance. You want the government to be able to stop illegal payments. You want the government to protect you from payment service providers that would take advantage of you. You want the government to be making sure that your money is safe and your payments will go safely to their destination, and at the same time, you don’t want the government to get unduly involved in your private affairs. U.S. government is grappling with these issues right now. There have been a number of acts floated in Congress draft bills that have not yet passed. Europe has moved ahead with its regulatory framework for this. So has the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Singapore, a number of other countries around the world are moving ahead to provide a path for entrepreneurs to develop these technologies safely and in the knowledge that their capital will not get wiped out by an unexpected change in regulation or the explosion of a piece of infrastructure because it wasn’t properly regulated and the ability to make cross-border payments, which I don’t know if you’ve tried it lately, Kevin, but for me, it’s a nightmare trying to get or make a cross-border payment of one currency for another these days.

A very expensive, very slow, very mistake prone. The technologies we’re discussing could address that and doesn’t need to be a digital dollar in the sense of a government money. It could be some bright entrepreneur that finds a way to do it in the private sector. Now, digital dollar is another approach, and we’ll see whether that turns out to be the winning approach

Kevin Cool: For all the attention they’ve gotten. As an alternative to government backed money, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are not a useful way to buy and sell goods and services, but the blockchain technology behind them has opened the door for a digital currency that’s more versatile and more secure than traditional money. As Daryl Duffy says, the days of pulling out grubby bits of paper to pay for something are numbered when or if the United States introduces a digital dollar, its possibility could bring about the innovation the banking system needs. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of the world may race ahead.

If/Then is produced by Jesse Baker and Eric Nuzum of Magnificent Noise for Stanford Graduate School of Business. Our show is produced by Jim Colgan and Julia Natt. Mixing and sound design by Kristin Mueller. From Stanford GSB: Jenny Luna, Sorel Husbands Denholtz, and Elizabeth Wyleczuk-Stern. If you enjoyed this conversation, we’d appreciate you sharing this with others who might be interested and hope you’ll try some of the other episodes in this series. For more on our professors and their research or to discover more podcasts coming out of Stanford GSB visit our website at gsb.stanford.edu. Find more on our YouTube channel. You can follow us on social media @StanfordGSB. I’m Kevin Cool.

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